DC 8.28am
Picking a VP for an election is tricky, especially for an election in a country with a population more than 200 million, and with coverage area reaching 5,000 km from East to West. In Indonesia (yes, around 5,400 km, from Aceh to Papua), so far only 1 name officially to be VP candidate: Muhaimin. With the gigantic cost of elections in Indonesia, VP candidates are sometimes “tricky” to lure anyone for a donation campaign.
Same as America.
37 Hours ago, “I think if he runs on a strong progressive agenda he's not only going to win, he's going to win by a strong vote," Sen. Bernie Sanders said on “Face The Nation” about President Biden, a solid sign that Sanders may not run for Primary Democrat 2024. With lead until 40-50 percent if compared with another GOP candidate, 2024 Election likely Biden v Trump again.
The central error that most US pundits have made since 2015—and continue to make—is they analyze Trump through the prism of US politics. None of this makes sense unless you understand how authoritarian-style cults of personality work. That’s what this is. WSJ Latest Poll, Trump is the top choice of 59% of GOP primary voters, up 11 percentage points since April, when the Journal tested a slightly different field of potential and declared candidates.
Also WSJ Latest Poll, although the candidates are only three years apart, 73% of voters said they feel Biden is too old to seek a second term, compared with 47% of voters who said the same of Trump. Two-thirds of Democrats said Biden was too old to run again.
The U.S. election is more than a year away, but governments have already begun to contemplate the return of Donald Trump. Some, like Beijing and Moscow, see potential benefits in a transactional leader willing to strike deals. For China, Trump was the leader who ignited trade tensions with the U.S. while a Biden presidency held out the prospect of a return to a previous era in which many U.S. policymakers supported free trade in the belief that it would liberalize China.
Marjorie Taylor Greene and Kari Lake Halperin currently shortlisted VP for Trump. So far, Biden 100% pick Kamala Devi Harris for (re)election in 2024.
What would happen if Donald Trump wins re-election in 2024 while serving time in prison, the 25th Amendment could come into play – with his running mate assuming his powers.
The very real possibility that the former president could squeak out a win in 2024 despite his legal travails that now -- with a federal indictment -- may include jail time.
That would take the country into uncharted territory since there is no prohibition -- depending on the charges -- that keeps a convicted Trump from becoming president, even if he is sitting in a prison cell.
That could make whomever Trump chooses as his running mate -- a range of reported candidates includes Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), failed Arizona candidate Kari Lake and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) -- taking over as acting president as he awaits his release.
"The 25th Amendment could be used, I suppose, with Trump’s agreement — although it is hard to imagine that as a matter of Trump’s personal psychology. If Trump cooperated, however, the vice president could do his job until he was released from prison."
He then added that, even if Trump didn't agree, it could still be invoked despite his wishes, writing: "where it would take a two-thirds in both chambers to hand Trump’s powers to his vice president."
Admitting that the premise sounds "far-fetched" he continued, "There are some technical issues here, to be sure. The 25th Amendment requires the existence of a cabinet. If Trump were to be imprisoned after his election but before his new cabinet could be confirmed, things could get messy. If the 25th were invoked by the remaining members of Biden’s cabinet, Trump would certainly fire them. That could lead to a failure of the amendment, because it would raise the question of whether Trump’s firing of those cabinet officers was effective given his nominal 'incapacity'"
In public, the far-right congresswoman from Georgia and the failed Arizona GOP gubernatorial candidate are happy to present an image of calm unity in their cause to return Trump to the White House. But behind the scenes, the two view one another with intense distrust and disdain, each seeing the other as direct competition for Trump’s political affections, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.
Exacerbating the situation is the fact that Greene and Lake are the two leading contenders in a very narrow lane in the race to secure Trump’s VP slot, should he win the 2024 Republican nomination next year. It’s the lane of election-denying, shameless Trump diehard who has emerged as a conspiracy-theory-slinging star among the conservative base.
Greene, in particular, has gone beyond simple attempts to raise her own profile in the ongoing Trump veepstakes. In recent weeks, she has moved behind the scenes to tear down Lake, garrulously trash-talking her to others in the MAGA elite, political circles, and conservative media.
In an ironic twist, one of the bigger complaints coming from Greene — who years ago cemented her public image as a QAnon-promoting, school-shooting-survivor-mocking, Jewish-Space-Laser-fearing activist — lately is that Lake is not a “serious” enough person to be Trump’s second-in-command.
“MTG thinks she’s a scammer and not even a conservative,” says one of the sources who’s spoken to Greene about this. The source adds that Greene has privately said that “Lake is a grifter and [is] trying to keep riding Trump’s coattails because she lost [in Arizona], so she’s cozying up on the election-integrity messaging.”
Similarly, according to a different source who personally knows and likes both Lake and Greene, in a conversation with the MAGA congresswoman within the past several weeks, “Kari did come up, and the term ‘grifter’ was used to describe her more than just once…[MTG] thinks it’s complete nonsense that anyone would think it’s a good idea for Donald Trump to consider [Kari] for VP.”
Tensions between Lake and Greene were visible during Trump’s speech at Mar-a-Lago after New York prosecutors indicted him on charges of falsifying business records earlier this year. According to one person in attendance, Greene’s demeanor turned icy after witnessing the loud applause and chants of “Kari won!” — a reference to her failed gubernatorial bid — for Lake.
Trump has from time to time quizzed confidants on who they think the best possible VP picks could be. Lake and Greene are indeed among the names the former president has repeatedly discussed, when discussing pros and cons with certain allies and senior staffers.
Unfortunately for both Lake and Greene, numerous sources close to Trump and working on his reelection effort deem each of their Trump-VP chances as vanishingly low. Several of these people independently claimed that even Trump is not “stupid enough” to tap either as his running mate. Some of these sources say they’ve already advised the routinely indicted 2024 GOP frontrunner that someone like Greene or Lake would bring nothing of value to a ticket, and could easily hurt him with independent and moderate voters who he’d need to unseat President Joe Biden.
However, another person close to the former president says that in the past few months, Trump has made a point of repeatedly commending each of them for their frequent efforts — both publicly and behind the scenes with lawmakers and grassroots activists — to aid his 2024 campaign.
Trump has suggested to close associates that Greene would be “great” in some position of seniority in his potential second administration, whether in the cabinet, at an agency, or in the West Wing at his side. The ex-president even floated the idea of installing her at the Justice Department; this confused some in Trump’s orbit.
Greene, for her part, is more than willing to publicly angle for the role of Trump’s vice presidential choice. “I’d have to think about it and consider it,” Greene said last month. “It’s talked about frequently and I know my name is on a list but really my biggest focus right now is serving the district that elected me.” Last year, Greene told The New York Times she and Trump had even discussed the idea of the congresswoman being his VP pick, adding: “I would be honored,” but, “I think the last person that the [Republican National Committee] or the national party wants is me as his running mate.”
Moreover, during Biden’s presidency, Greene has forged strong ties not just to Trump himself, but to other mainstream Republican leaders. In her attempt to shed some of her fringe credentials and become embraced by her party’s honchos, she emerged as an extremely close ally and defender of GOP House speaker Kevin McCarthy, for instance.
Lake’s own rising profile among Republicans appears to be fueling Greene’s animus. Lake has made a number of trips to Iowa to campaign for Trump and one early poll in the state showed she was the top vice presidential pick among Republican voters in the state next to Gov. Nikki Haley.
That popularity translated into whispers among certain Trumpworld luminaries that Lake’s name was added to a shortlist of possible running mates. In March, Axios reported that Lake was one of four women under consideration for the vice presidential nod alongside South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and South Dakota Gov. Krisi Noem.
Greene, of course, has been open about her vice presidential ambitions. Last month she also floated the idea of either a Georgia Senate run or a shot as a vice presidential pick. She asked The Atlanta Journal Constitution, “Am I going to be a part of President Trump’s Cabinet if he wins? Is it possible that I’ll be VP?”
In the not-too-distant past — before their rivalry truly kicked in — Greene had been vocally supportive of Lake, when the latter’s ambitions were focused on statewide office. During Lake’s run for the governor’s office in Arizona, Greene championed her run and urged “Keep fighting Kari” as the Republican gubernatorial candidate challenged her loss in court.
Greene hasn’t mentioned Lake on her Twitter feed since that December 2022 tweet. Lake, on the other hand, hasn’t been quite so obvious. In April, she publicly thanked Greene for a video alleging corruption in the Biden family.
Despite the simmering resentments between the two MAGA stalwarts, Lake may make a decision in the coming weeks that could determine whether Greene continues to view her as an imminent threat.
In the months since her gubernatorial loss, and as rumors of her Trump-VP desires swirled, Lake has also flirted with launching a U.S. Senate run in Arizona for the seat held by Democratic-turned-independent lawmaker Kyrsten Sinema.
What would happen if Donald Trump wins re-election in 2024 while serving time in prison, the 25th Amendment could come into play – with his running mate assuming his powers.
The very real possibility that the former president could squeak out a win in 2024 despite his legal travails that now -- with a federal indictment -- may include jail time.
That would take the country into uncharted territory since there is no prohibition -- depending on the charges -- that keeps a convicted Trump from becoming president, even if he is sitting in a prison cell.
That could make whomever Trump chooses as his running mate -- a range of reported candidates includes Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), failed Arizona candidate Kari Lake and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) -- taking over as acting president as he awaits his release.
========END————
Thank you, as always, for reading. If you have anything like a spark file, or master thought list (spark file sounds so much cooler), let me know how you use it in the comments below. Thank you so much for letting me vent! If you enjoyed this article, you can give pledge to me same as 25 subscribers (click PLEDGE button) or simply share this article with a friend. It helps me more than you realise.
If you enjoyed this post, please share it.
______________
Professor Hendrik, Professor Eric, and another person, Prof David A. Andelman, former Bureau Chief NYTimes recommended my substack, also some Chief Technology of Financial Times (FT) recommended my substack, not only subscribe. I'd be happy to get more & more PLEDGE and recommendations for better crafted writing (via Bank Central Asia (with my full-name ADI MULIA PRADANA, clearing code 0140119, account number 0201558866 or via STRIPE. For me, prefer Bank Central Asia).
If a friend sent this to you, you could subscribe here 👇. All content is free, and paid subscriptions are voluntary.
——————————————————————————————————
-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Now figure out and or prevent catastrophic of everything.
(Very rare compliment and initiative pledge, and hopefully more readers more pledges to me. Thank you. My note-live blog about Russia - Ukraine already click-read 6 millions, not counting another note especially Live Update Substack (mostly Live Update Election or massive incident)
=======
Thanks for reading Prada’s Newsletter. I was lured, inspired by someone writer, his post in LinkedIn months ago, “Currently after a routine daily writing newsletter in the last 10 years, my subscriber reaches 100,000. Maybe one of my subscribers is your boss.” After I get followed / subscribed by (literally) prominent AI and prominent Chief Product and Technology of mammoth global media (both: Sir, thank you so much), I try crafting more / better writing.
To get the ones who really appreciate your writing, and now prominent people appreciate my writing, priceless feeling. Prada ungated/no paywall every notes-but thank you for anyone open initiative pledge to me.
(Promoting to more engage in Substack) Seamless to listen to your favorite podcasts on Substack. You can buy a better headset to listen to a podcast here (GST DE352306207).
Listeners on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, or Pocket Casts simultaneously. podcasting can transform more of a conversation. Invite listeners to weigh in on episodes directly with you and with each other through discussion threads. At Substack, the process is to build with writers. Podcasts are an amazing feature of the Substack. I wish it had a feature to read the words we have written down without us having to do the speaking. Thanks for reading Prada’s Newsletter.
Wants comfy jogging pants / jogginghose amid scorching summer or (one day) harsh winter like black jogginghose or khaki/beige jogginghose like this? click
Headset and Mic can buy in here, but not including this cat, laptop, and couch / sofa