After Saigon and Kabul: U.S. May Leave Damascus Forever, No Longer Toppling Assad
After Saigon and Kabul: U.S. May Leave Damascus Forever, No Longer Toppling Assad
The 3rd “Time to Go” isn't Ukraine: U.S. Leave Syria Forever, Following Viet Nam & Afghanistan
Iraq and Afghanistan. The most evil, disastrous wars America ever waged & its legacy not only abroad but here at home. If there is no sign (even little) prospect of peace, Ukraine - Russia will be the most disastrous wars (funded by) America (taxpayers), surpassing Afghanistan and Iraq. Or, Mike Bloomberg has a unique measure, analogy: the economic damage caused by the Ukraine-Russia war “could make the cost being paid by the United States for Iraq-Afghanistan look like bubkes.”
The war in Ukraine had probably already become a frozen conflict, like Syria. In the 12.5 months since, the battle lines have barely budged, like we saw in Bakhmut. Syria and Iraq war never ended. There are US troops there right now. The US is currently occupying a third of Syria. JSOC operators go out and kill Syrians and Iraqis all the time. Active fighting is ongoing. Four Delta Force soldiers were wounded just two weeks ago.
Tonight, in Congress, a signal emerged that the U.S. will leave Syria forever, like Saigon painful, also like Kabul (August 2021). Thanks for Matt Gaetz, Trump ally. Syria (originally) is a huge part of the geopolitical plan. That is where the new pipeline will be going for the EU. Germany already secured energy supply from Qatar and Iraq. France secured a contract with Qatar. If the U.S. leaves Syria, how does the EU set or build a pipe energy?
The Congressional Progressive Caucus is urging a "yes" vote on Matt Gaetz 's War Powers Resolution tomorrow, which would require US troops to withdraw from Syria within 180 days, according to a message circulated this evening to members. Since Bowman, Tlaib, Khanna, and other CPC members forced a floor vote on Syria withdrawal as part of the NDAA, 60% of the Democratic caucus voted yes (as opposed to only 25 Republicans voting yes). Curious if Gaetz changes the dynamics.
It’s a War Powers Resolution. Biden can veto it, but it’s not at all a sense of congress thing.
The irony: Robert Ford, who as ambassador to Syria pushed an aggressive approach to Bashar al-Assad’s regime, is now backing a resolution by Gaetz to end the remaining U.S. occupation. In London, Peter Ford, former British Ambassador to Syria, says Israel does not care about international public opinion, adding that the US Congress is the only audience of the Israeli regime.
In the video, Gaetz (alongside Trump jr) says “Obama got us into a civil war in Syria. President Trump did everything to get us out of Syria. The Deep State is doing everything to keep us in Syria. My War Powers Resolution puts AMERICA FIRST and brings our troops home!”
If the U.S. is no longer interested in Syria, why is Israel still bombing Syria amid the devastation of the earthquake? March 6th, 2023, Israeli airstrikes on Aleppo International Airport, Syria, 3 killed, damaging its runway, hindering humanitarian aid deliveries after an earthquake killed thousands. The Israeli regime constantly bombs Syrian civilian infrastructure. The targeting of Aleppo airport by Israel has rendered it unable to receive vital aid for those in need. Haaretz reported that (actually) the vast majority of reserve Israel air force pilots in combat units will not train this week, in protest of government plans of regime change. These are the people that take part in Israeli strikes in Gaza, Syria, and Iran. So, if Israel is still bombing Syria on March 6th, this is by a minority soldier who still agrees with the Netanyahu regime.
Waiting for Aleppo airport to be repaired after the Israel strike, the first European flight to Syria in 11 years will arrive Thursday (March 9th). Greece's Air Mediterranean will have four flights per week – on Thursday and Monday, from Athens to Damascus, and on Friday and Tuesday, from Damascus to Athens.
This is the 2nd strike by Israel. Feb 18th, Israel bombed a densely populated part of central Damascus. At least 5 Syrians were killed, 15 wounded.
The Pentagon's top Middle East policy official Dana Stroul boasted the US military "owns" 1/3rd of Syria, including its oil-rich "economic powerhouse". She admitted the US blocked funds to prevent reconstruction and spent years starving Syrians before the earthquake. When Turkiye casualties reach 45k, Syria is still confused about the latest death toll because of the ruin of long-term war since 2011. Some NGO said 8-9k, another NGO count 5,9k.
Russia has long had a dual stance towards Israel, especially on Syria. With the advent of the war in Ukraine, it becomes more and more evident that Israel is not Russia's ally, but it's also aligned with Moscow's enemies.
Since April 2018, nearly 5 years ago, Donald Trump’s outbursts about getting U.S. troops out of Syria have done substantial damage to Washington’s influence over its crucial Syrian ally, knowledgeable current and former senior administration officials and service members explained. That influence, they believe, is America’s most important asset as it navigates one of the world’s most chaotic and transactional battlefields.
“Everyone is tracking U.S. politics, particularly Trump, way better than we think,” a member of the American special-operations community told.
“It’s hard when you make assurances, your chain of command makes assurances, and then all of a sudden the president comes off the top rope and changes things.”
Much remains unresolved and in flux. That irresolution lingers even after Trump’s top advisers issued a public reminder that the war against the so-called Islamic State, upon which all U.S. policy in Syria is predicated, remains unfinished. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders—not Trump himself—issued a statement later that morning that walked back any talk of withdrawal, but also clearly hinted at Trump’s impatience.
It was an uncertain denouement that followed six days in which the U.S. changed its Syria posture substantially, yet adjusted its 2,000-troop force posture not at all. At least not for now. Current and former administration officials familiar with the internal Syria policy debates believe that the key to determining whether the damage is lasting or manageable will be whether the mostly Kurdish ground proxy force on which the U.S. overwhelmingly relies to fight the Islamic State, the SDF, starts hedging its bets.
The officials see no coincidence that adversaries Russia and Iran, with whom NATO ally Turkey bandwagoned, this week broadcast a showing of unity and resolve—one that isolated the U.S. from what they portrayed as the relevant diplomatic process.
There is unanimity among Trump’s advisers against a set withdrawal timetable, something CNN and the Washington Post reported that Trump desires. There is also unanimity against taking any hasty or unilateral decisions. Still, one official cautioned against an oversimplification that the national security apparatus sees its priority as managing Trump while managing Syria.
The outgoing national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, did not attend the Syria NSC meeting, spokesman Michael Anton said, with Deputy National Security Adviser Rick Waddell serving as the senior NSC representative. Last summer, McMaster convinced Trump to reverse himself on withdrawing from Afghanistan, at a cost to his relationship with the president. It is unclear whether incoming National Security Adviser John Bolton will urge Trump to remain in Syria or reinforce Trump’s instincts to leave.
Although Washington initially committed to a policy of regime change in Syria, the Obama and Trump administrations have said since the U.S. first placed troops in Syria in 2015 that the mission was exclusively to fight ISIS. Any effect on the broader civil war was, officials have consistently maintained, indirect at best. (A lonely exception, separate from the ISIS war, was Trump’s abrupt April 2017 missile strikes on a Syrian airstrip to retaliate for the Bashar al-Assad regime’s chemical-weapons attack; later attacks were met with no such reprisal.)
The goals of all other Syria combatants are comparatively clear. Assad wants to retain power. Patrons Russia and Iran want to aid him and accordingly bolster their own positions in the region. The Syrian Kurds want, at the least, something like an autonomous enclave. Turkey wants to prevent that. And each of those objectives is vastly more valuable to each actor than the U.S. presence is to Washington.
Trump’s vocal insistence on withdrawing from Syria took the U.S.’ largely Kurdish ground force by surprise. And it drew confusion inside and outside the administration. Trump had made a far larger indefinite troop commitment to Afghanistan, a war with less of a relationship to U.S. security interests than the ISIS fight, and rarely spoke of it again. As well, Trump had for years assailed Obama for withdrawing from Iraq in 2011. (Though Trump also launched the opposite criticism.) Now, Gaetz continued what Trump has started: good bye from Syria.