Are we agree WSJ report [Hamas, Hizb, Iran connection] ONLY because Israel surprisingly loser [casualties 1k, maybe 2k] and look impossible Palestine alone to attack.

Author still the student with the thickest thesis defense ever in IR [international relation] Indonesia, more than 200 pages, arguing Israel - Palestine in Gaza Strip, years ago.

UPDATE 3.45pm Jerusalem / 8.45am DC

At least 9 Americans were killed in Israel soil, an NSC spokesperson confirmed to NBC. After 4 US citizens - hostages killed by Israeli bombing in Gaza [not counting other cause, at least new info is 9], Israel abruptly talks exchange women, children with Hamas, mediate Qatar, as Hamas leader Ismail Haniya in years living in Doha Qatar.

Hostages exchange with Palestinian women, children in jails.

so far US killed = 13 (9 in Israel soil + 4 in Gaza - Palestine soil because Israel bombing). UK killed are 10 lives.

Israeli side already reaches 1,100 after 107 [so far] bodies found in Kibbutz Be'eri (Hebrew: בְּאֵרִי)

Gaza / Jerusalem / Tel Aviv / Jeddah 11.06am [around 53 hours of war] - BREAKING NEWS live update trilingual [hebrew - arabic - english] click here

Around 6.30am Tel Aviv [around 48 hours of war], IDF spokeperson Brig-General Danny Hagari said that there is no indication of an Iranian involvement in the war in Gaza, contrary stunning investigation by WSJ [connecting the dots Hamas - Hezbollah / Hizbullah Lebanon - Iran] around 10pm Jerusalem. ‘ITS NOT IRAN’ IDF said.

Like Mark MacKinnon [journo for Canada Media THE GLOBE AND MAIL], like President William Rayburn [portrayed by Michael John McKean], because the Israeli government [via IDF] denied and or SAY ‘ITS NOT IRAN’, this is relief.

For a long time, [aside Germany] Palestine - Israel issue plus Iran is stranded in my gut. My paper, [still] the thickest thesis defense ever in IR [international relation] Indonesia, more than 200 pages, arguing Israel - Palestine in Gaza Strip, years ago. This year eid-ul-fitr [islamic celebration to end the ramadan holy month] goes to around 20 / 21 / 22 April, depending on your [islamic majority] government deciding which date according hijr /MOON calendar, an Islamic calendar, same calendar uses by Palestine and Iran.

I love movie or series. Last time viral ‘ITS NOT IRAN’ is about stunning portrayed in Netflix Series ‘The Diplomat.’

Former senior Secretary of State official said ‘The Diplomat’ is not very realistic. For starters, ‘Ambassador Kate Wyler’ portrayed Keri Russell, the US ambassador to the UK, is analyst for Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan [in this series] but abruptly appointed to be UK ambassador, not a donor -- much unlike major Democrat bundler Jane Dorothy Hartley, Biden's ambassador to the UK. Just 10 minutes ago, she [Ms Jane] tweeted about Israel.

For months, I tried to write [review] about this series, but failed. But one day I must write it, especially ‘LIFE REDUPLICATE - IMITATING ART’ literally happened.

 

I was loving Indonesian women-with very Iranian, literally was living in Iranian, and literally born April 20. Same global aired ‘ITS NOT IRAN’ The Diplomat, a Netflix exclusive series. The worst, now I really love Jews, now in Germany.

This is my 5th note about the latest Israel - Palestine war.

Last time casualties’ statistic by Israel side is 13 hours ago [Hours-31 of war, around 9pm Jerusalem / Tel Aviv / Gaza], meanwhile Palestinian can reporting new number at least every 2 hours.

4 hostages [no detailed citizenship, name] killed by Israel bomb, after raid bombing in Gaza.1 HAMAS soldiers was also killed.

imagine if 4 hostages are US citizens or even Israeli citizens. Israeli [bomb] killing US or [other] Israeli. assume hostage 750 person, maybe bigger.

The tally of Israeli dead still stands at 700 like 13 hours ago, a figure published yesterday, but a senior Israeli official tells "the real numbers are far higher, inconceiveably." I assume 2,000, and tragically, in the moment ‘worse ever, blackest day for Israel, even worse than 1948 or Yom Kippur or Six Day War, from late last night, a senior doctor at a hospital full of wounded says: 'You know what is very interesting? Usually after an event with this many casualties, all kinds of politicians come to 'visit the wounded." No one has bothered to come today', according Ben Caspit.

Ben Caspit also interview Gilad Shalit. A lot of stories, even admitted by Gilad Shalit, he oftenly barbecue-ing with HAMAS on a rooftop, years before he got released. Gilad, who on 25 June 2006, was captured by Palestinian militants in a cross-border raid via tunnels near the Israeli border.

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Hamas held him captive for over five years, until his release on 18 October 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange deal. Assume that in 5 years, maybe countless, but just say 2,000 times Israeli bombing Gaza, but, Gilad Shalit is still alive. But yes, transporting ‘from one building to another building’ for one hostage [Gilad] is very easy rather than transporting 750 people.

To emphasize this again: just because Hamas and Hizballah claim something does not make it true. Remarkable how the same people who say "Iran's regime lies all the time" (which it does) are willing to accept claims from Iran and its allies when they fit the right narrative.

in same exact logic, if Hamas and Islam Jihad put all hostages in 'outdoor' Gaza, then IDF / israeli killed lot of hostages, from united states citizen, us - israeli, israeli, uk citizen with bomb by jet fighter. What a [potential] shaky diplomacy netanyahu - sunak - biden

If anyone try to imagine ‘how unprepared’ Israel with current war, new estimate is up to 1K Hamas entered in initial offensive through 80 breaches in fence, not a dozen, and 20 communities and 11 IDF bases hit. ‘There are no accurate Israeli estimates of their size or how they entered’, Palestine already liberated [44 hours and still counting, still conquered] an area of occupied Palestine bigger than Gaza, and until now, IDF or Israeli military still cannot push back the Palestinian to the border line again. Of course, the continued occupation of Palestinians by Israel gives Tehran an opening it will always exploit to drive its agenda.

If Palestine ‘paraglide’ already start to flying infiltrate Israel area around 5am and siren in entire Israel already sound-on 6.30am last Saturday, this rave party, near Gaza, and means this footage, is around 5-6am. Rave party [keep on] early morning, maybe already started since Friday. According to multiple info, 240 - 250 member / participant of this rave party has been killed.

If a gigantic participant of a rave party near Gaza [240 - 250 bodies] was just found 13 hours ago [32 hours of war], imagine a lot of casualties in an area which is currently still occupied by ‘parachute troopers or hang glider’ of Palestine. Of course, the Israeli side still can’t count how many actual casualties, or still a lot of [number] ‘under reporting’, or ‘there are no accurate Israeli estimates of their size or how they entered.’ READ CAREFULLY = ‘already liberated an area of occupied Palestine [Israel] bugger than Gaza.’ Gaza has a total area of 365 km² (141 sq mi)

Death toll Palestinian of ongoing Israeli attacks: 712

[687 Gaza, 25 other cities]

since new year: 970

In Gaza, the IDF appears to have ceased "roof knock" warnings before airstrikes. "A change of paradigm", as per IDF because 750 [maybe more] hostages, from US citizenship, US - Israel citizenship, US - UK, UK - Israel, Nepalese, now in Gaza. Imagine if UK hostages of US hostages were killed by Israeli jet fighters because of the bombing 'militia area' [as WESTERN DERIVED VIEW] named Gaza, and imagine how awkward Biden - Netanyahu - Rishi Sunak communication was.

[again] Of course, the continued occupation of Palestinians by Israel gives Tehran an opening it will always exploit to drive its agenda.

Blinken not only confirmed ‘HUNDRED’ US as hostages, but already said ‘was killed’ 

HAMAS acclaimed 100 hostages, Islam Jihad acclaimed 30 hostages, but in Israel 750 missing and even all 750 names aren't the same name with 240 - 250 list of victims of a rave party in near Gaza. 

Palestinian side / hamas spox giving a statement,

“We have documentation that clearly shows Israeli soldiers killing their fellow soldiers after being captured by us.” 

Imagine the actual casualties on the Israeli side. On the U.S. side, Blinken not only confirmed ‘HUNDRED’ US citizens as hostages, but already said ‘[several] were killed.’ If like IDF soldier [suicide or kill each other after get captured by HAMAS], IMAGINE if US citizen [get capture] may kill other US fellow because desperate. 

Gaza is an open air prison sealed from all sides. 75+ years of occupation that turned Gaza into the world's largest open-air prison apparently never happened. Housing Palestinians who used to live across Israel. 95 percent of Gazans live on just 1-2 dollars per day. Gaza is the 2nd most densely populated place on earth [after Tambora Jakarta Indonesia, around 14k persons/km2].

In the Gaza Strip, the rate is estimated at [around] 7k-8k persons/km2, compared to a lower population density in the West Bank, with [around] 620-650 persons/km2  Gaza is routinely massacred & used as testing grounds for new weapons tech by the Israeli. Now imagine if [all] 750 hostages, maybe more, not only Israeli citizens but US citizens, US - Israeli [dual], UK - Israeli, UK, Nepalese, etc to be part of  ‘testing grounds for new weapons tech by Israeli.’ For specific to US, the US government does not have a U.S. Ambassador in:

- Israel [already name Jack Lew, but not officially appointed]

- Egypt [very near with Gaza]

- Lebanon

- Oman

- Kuwait

- No confirmed top USAID official for the Middle East for nearly 3 years

-No State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism for nearly 2 years

But of course, US has aircraft carrier, and HAMAS look don’t care.

To make sure everyone reads carefully, Israel, like Singapore and North Korea, set a mandatory military service. Former PM Naftali Bennett even joined the reservist 38 hours ago, now waiting Gal Gadot also joined. 

When in Netflix series, ‘FAUDA’ create an image of sophisticated Israel military and intelligence, in fact / real technically in field, regardless of the sourcing by WSJ investigation [connecting-the-dot HAMAS, Lebanon Hizbullah / Hezbollah, Iran, bit worried with some details in this piece, why would Iran FM attend a meeting to discuss a military operation in the middle [very intense meeting with] Saudi FM and then meet Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Mossad doesn’t know. How come all these factions were involved in the planning over the past period with zero leaks, with Mossad, again, doesn't know. Of course, the continued occupation of Palestinians by Israel gives Tehran an opening it will always exploit to drive its agenda. These laims are being used to support a narrative that is thus far unsubstantiated.

Are Mossad suffered decrease ability

Are IDF suffered decrease ability

90-95% of IDF forces supposed to be in regions adjacent to Gaza were deployed to the West Bank because of Netanyahu's coalition partners [40 weeks consecutive of judicial overhaul]. IDF relied on cameras and sensors which were either taken out physically or interfered with electronically. 26 Israeli battalions, most of the IDF, were deployed in the territories, leaving the south 'protected' by a hi-tech, sensor and camera-laden fence. Israel preparing major operation but Netanyahu as commander-in-chief of a large-scale operation is new territory for him. He does not have an adequate war cabinet.

The sudden realisation that Israel's borders are made of putty in the face of Hamas aggression has left the nation stunned. The case it makes the intelligence failure even greater. This means that Hezbollah and the IRGC both knew this is coming and still Israeli intel didn’t pick it up. MOSSAD and IDF may be mistaking routine Iranian intelligence sharing with Hamas (and others) regarding Israeli vulnerabilities for operational planning of this attack. To emphasize this again: just because Hamas and Hizballah claim something does not make it true. Remarkable how the same people who say "Iran's regime lies all the time" (which it does) are willing to accept claims from Iran and its allies when they fit the right narrative.

Days ago, systematically smeared the Iranian American analysts, Ali Vaez and Ariane Tabatabai [both CRISIS GROUP analyst] got shopped to Semafor on Nuclear Weapon by Iran issues and Israel. Apparently a Trump / Pompeo aide was the one shopping it around for about a month.

Cannot debate, here was some Iranian role in this attack, even Iranian never denied. Chant ‘death to Israel, death to America’ in Iranian parliamentary last Satirday, just hours after ‘infiltration by hang glider - parachute troops’ started. Iran finances Hamas and Islamic Jihad, smuggles weapons to Gaza and provides technical help for building rockets and drones. To say Iran was not involved *at all* is just propaganda. That said, Iran and its proxies are keen to promote another bit of propaganda. They call it "unity of the arenas": the idea that an array of militant groups, in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria, will coordinate to fight Israel.

Unity can be a bit elusive on the ground. Even Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the two main groups in Gaza, do not always work well together. HAMAS acclaimed 100 hostages, Islam Jihad acclaimed 30 hostages, all 100 and 30 are different list hostage, but in Israel 750 missing and even all 750 names aren't the same name with 240 - 250 list of victims of a rave party in near Gaza. 

Hizballah has a different constituency and a different set of considerations. But the narrative of a united front serves their interests. The WSJ's sources also claim that Hossein Amir-Abdollahian "attended at least two of the meetings". It strains credibility a bit to think that Iran's FM, an apparatchik and the target of much surveillance, would be brought in to plan a highly secret military operation. If Mossad cannot prevent at least first meeting of him, why Mossad also cannot prevent his second meeting, may Mossad giving a signal ‘gotcha, we know your meeting.’ In fact, FM Abdollahian, amid meeting with FM Saudi and then Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, attended AT LEAST [physically] two meetings.

But there is a narrative taking hold: the WSJ piece proves Iran ordered and planned the attack. It doesn't prove that or even really assert that. Nor does other credible reporting. And perhaps we should be cautious about taking Hamas at face value. There was almost certainly some coordination within the "resistance axis". Hamas would not have launched an attack of this magnitude without alerting its partners. But coordination is not the same thing as Iran giving Hamas an order to go launch a mass attack on Israel.

That Netanyahu was soft on Hamas and did everything to undermine the PA has been common knowledge for years. Netanyahu is singularly responsible for creating the circumstances that made it possible. Not a believer in peace, he thought we could simply "contain" Hamas. He was wrong. Dead wrong.

Again, I still assume that currently, 33 hours of war, 3.30pm, all 750 Israeli hostages still alive, and all in Gaza, although Netanyahu [2am Tel Aviv, 17 hours ago] gave a statement ‘leave now from Gaza’. But, one day, after [all 750] back to Israeli soil or Israeli sides again, imagine that, they are told to each other ‘I may be killed by your [Israel] bomb, so please stop bombing Gaza again, forever.’

Dramatic mind games. 

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-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Now figure out and or prevent catastrophic of everything.

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