From Jerusalem to Jeddah
Very hot and sunny day, 2.33 pm (Israel time, or 7.33 pm Jakarta, or 7.33 am DC) today, Biden steps off Air Force One at Ben Gurion airport, Israel. His kickoff Middle East visit really starts today. From Israel, Biden will visit Saudi too. White House finally confirms Biden will meet MBS in Jeddah Friday night (July 15th).
A grim consequence of MBS’s seeming vendetta against Aljabri was the arrest and imprisonment of his two youngest children, Omar and Sarah. MBS told him that his children would be released if he returned home, making the children, in effect, hostages. This is the same level as the killing of Jamal Khashoggi. Biden’s rationale for meeting with MBS (July 15th in Jeddah) is that, despite these human rights issues, Saudi cooperation is important for longterm U.S. national security reasons. That’s realpolitik, direct and simple, but Biden needs to get a real partnership in exchange for his pragmatic approach.
Fred Ryan, CEO of the Washington Post, Khashoggi last employee, please to Biden, when the image of Biden pressing flesh with Jamal’s murderer flashes around the world, what will it say to Vladimir Putin and to the Syrians, who hold the lives of journalists in their hands. It’s not about the intention Biden has when he meets MBS. It’s about the consequences—what the regime will make of that visit. It will be perceived as a big win for MBS. Week ago, the U.S. Federal Judge puts Biden on the spot over immunity for Saudi crown prince on Khashoggi case.
Only hours ago, the Kremlin confirmed that Putin will meet Erdogan and Iran’s President Raisi in Tehran on July 19, 6-days from now. The UNSC vote on aid to Syria yesterday showed the limits of Western resolve to contain Russian power following February's invasion of Ukraine. Same night of the UNSC voting, the U.S. killed Maher al-Agal, one of the top five ISIS leaders and the leader of ISIS in Syria in a UAS strike outside Jindayris in northwest Syria.
Israel has a different view than the U.S. about the Iran deal but the Biden administration believes diplomacy is the best way to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Biden wants to convey in this visit is that the U.S.-Israeli relations are not about “who sits in which chair” but it is a relationship between countries.
Raising himself said if the Biden visits to the region are to strengthen the position of the "zionist regime" (Israeli) & normalize the relations of this regime with some countries, their efforts will not bring security to the regime in any way. 2 Days ago, Thomson-Reuters investigation cited that currently not only Bushehr nuclear plant but also Fordow nuclear plant can create a "some likely" Nuclear Weapon. The fact that breakout time is nil, stockpiles at 60% continue to grow, advanced centrifuges keep coming online and we don't have real-time IAEA access is profoundly not good. On the other hand, Israeli IDF pilots destroyed Iranian drones last year in a secret mission that was part of a new military relationship between Israel, certain Arab nations and the U.S.
Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid will sign "The Jerusalem Declaration" that will serve as the framework for the U.S.-Israel strategic relationship. The joint declaration will include a statement that the U.S. and Israel will never allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon and make use of all the elements of their national power to make sure of that.
To ensure no more high tension between Israel-Palestine at least during Biden's visit to the Middle East, Yair Lapid directly orders to postpone plans for 2000 new housing units in settlements in East Jerusalem. On Biden’s last visit to Israel in 2010, Israel’s interior ministry announced 1,600 new housing units in East Jerusalem. Biden takes credit for last year's Gaza war lasting "just 11 days": inspirational stuff, guys. And for Yair Lapid calling Mahmoud Abbas to wish him a Happy Eid Adha, as if that was some sort of major diplomatic breakthrough.
Biden will emphasize his support for the two state solution as the only way to keep Israel as a Jewish and democratic state while achieving independence for Palestinians. Biden is aware of the challenges facing the peace process & therefore won't present any initiatives to resume peace talks between Israel & Palestinians but will urge the parties to take steps to improve the situation & allow talks in the future. Blinken spoke on the phone with the family of Shireen Abu Akleh (killed by Israeli Defense Force) and invited them for a meeting in DC. Shireen has a dual citizenship, Palestinian and American.
Sensible not to raise expectations about what Biden visit means for gas and oil prices. Ask for more gas and oil from Saudi Arabia. The oil-rich kingdom is closer than ever to Russia and has no plans to disengage from Moscow or help Washington by pumping more crude, Saudi officials said yesterday. But that leaves the administration to sell a controversial trip while downplaying the one thing that your average American would actually care about. The awkward: at least 28-days consecutive gas price in America down, just 24 hours before Biden footed at Ben Gurion. I don’t think the gas and oil price cap scheme on Russian will work. But the lesson here isn’t that DC doesn’t know how to enforce sanctions—it’s that we aren’t particularly good at thinking these sanctions through.
Saudi-Israeli normalization steps, Gulf dialogue with Iran, talk of regional defense cooperation: all of this is happening because of America's perceived policy incoherence over the past decade. And it will continue regardless of whether or not Biden makes the trip to Jeddah and directly (will meet) MBS. Israeli President Herzog himself said to Biden "....this trip is your journey of peace from Israel to Saudi Arabia, from the Holy Land Jerusalem to the Hejaz (Saudi).
The US has provided a draft formal security agreement to the UAE which may be nearing finalization. Arguments are now being made to extend such commitments to Saudi Arabia, and may be extended even further as part of a broader regional air defense network. This looks like "Iron Dome" but no longer only Israeli territory but entirely the Middle East —- except Iran and Yemen. Given that US arms used by Saudi-UAE-led coalition in Yemen to conduct unlawful airstrikes, including apparent war crimes, without accountability, the Biden admin should scrutinize whether a potential formal defense agreement with the UAE holds human rights risks.
Such guarantees would likely embolden regional autocrats, demonstrating that behavior contrary to the interests and principles of the US is actually rewarded, paving the way for other regional actors (after Bibi Netanyahu and Trump) to pressure the US into providing more formal commitments to the Middle East. But, a grip-and-grin photograph with Biden and the Saudi crown prince MBS would signal "to autocrats everywhere that you can quite literally get away with murdering a journalist as long as you possess a natural resource the United States wants badly enough."
