Around 78 hours ago, Turkiye / Turkey warned Russia after Black Sea ship raid, says Turkish presidency. “Our interlocutors in Russia were warned to avoid such attempts to avoid escalation in the Black Sea” says a branch of Turkish Presidency. Really a lower level of statement for domestic purpose.
Turkiye recent avoidance of a public confrontation with Russia may reflect its efforts to maintain its balancing act while working out problems behind closed doors. For more context, assume (currently) 120k Russian and 70k Ukrainian works and living in Turkiye, mostly in Ankara, Istanbul, Bodrum, Adana.
FM Turkiye Hakan Fidan will use his first ever visit to Kyiv as foreign minister, on 25 August, to exchange views on bilateral issues as well as the ongoing Ukrainian offensive and Ukraine’s own peace plan.
The visit comes as Turkey and the UN have intensified their efforts to convince Russia to revive the landmark Black Sea grain deal, which ensured the safe passage of 33m tonnes of grain between August 2022 and July 2023. Moscow terminated the deal last month, over written promises that it says have not been met.
Moscow says western powers could not facilitate the export of Russian ammonium and insurance for the Russian ships that carry crops, as well as payment for these deliveries in foreign currencies.
The two capitals enjoyed a rosy relationship before Turkey's general elections in May. But in recent months, Ankara has taken a series of steps distancing itself from Moscow, including voicing full support for Ukraine’s NATO membership during Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Istanbul in early July; releasing commanders from Ukraine’s Azov Battalion who were supposed to stay in Turkey until the end of the war under a prisoner swap deal; and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s greenlighting Swedish accession to NATO. Turkiye just say yes for SWEDEN - NATO if the U.S. also say yes for Turkiye to purchasing 3-4 squadrons of F-16) and also if EU make smooth process for Turkiye to be new member of EU. US Congress 7 months ago sent a letter, say no about Turkiye desire to buy F-16.
The Russians hardly sat idle while all these events happened. On July 17, President Vladimir Putin announced his country’s withdrawal from the deal allowing safe shipment of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, which had been mediated by Turkey and the United Nations last year.
On Aug. 6, Russian forces struck Ukrainian engine manufacturer Motor Sich, which supplies Turkey's internationally famed drone giant Baykar. The company's TB2 drones have played a critical role in Ukraine's defense against the Russian forces, and speaking to Defense News, a senior Turkish diplomat described the attack “as a symbolic Russian warning ... over a few Turkish initiatives.”
Finally on Aug. 13, Russian forces raided a Ukraine-bound cargo ship which is owned by a Turkish national and was manned by Turkish crew in international waters in the Black Sea, some 50 kilometers off Turkey’s coast. Earlier this week, Moscow released footage of the raid.
The Russian raid was “strange,” but even stranger was Ankara’s low-profile response. Breaking its silence on Thursday, the Turkish side warned Moscow against further actions that could escalate tensions in the Black Sea.
“Russia is in serious trouble because of the war in Ukraine, but the Turkish side is not pressing its advantages,” Isik told Al-Monitor, adding that Ankara’s relative silence might relate to its efforts to convince Moscow to return to the grain deal.
Onur Isci, associate professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, explains Turkey’s approach through its efforts to maintain a balancing act between Russia and the West.
Closer ties with the West do not mean a break with Russia, but "an unqualified compliance with Western sanctions on Russia is not a feasible plan for Turkey, nor is it possible.
Whether Erdogan and Putin will meet in person this month, the two sides will likely find a common ground. The war in Ukraine has put the Russian economy into dire straits. Furthermore, both Ankara and Moscow need to scale down their commitments in Syria to focus on more pressing geopolitical issues.
The first vessel that used Ukraine's Black Sea corridor safely reached Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait on Friday. The ship was not carrying grain.
The Hong Kong-flagged Joseph Schulte container ship left the Russian-blocked Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa earlier this week. It had been in the port since 23 February 2022, the day before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Ankara was appreciating Ukraine’s critical position and its attempts to export crucial grain to world markets. However, the Ukraine corridor will still increase grain prices, since its insurance costs would rise.
There is a risk that this proposal could escalate the situation in the Black Sea and spill the war into the territories of Nato countries, which we obviously don’t want. Ukrainian side aware that the new humanitarian corridor that goes through Romanian and Bulgarian territorial waters is fragile. Turks believe the new route isn’t likely to be practical, might increase tensions, and the the insurance cost would be higher, making the grain more expensive.
Meanwhile, despite Turks’ centuries-old skepticism toward the West, the Russian image is hardly any better in Turkish minds.
In two weeks' time, the foreign affairs ministers of EU countries will convene in the Spanish town of Toledo to hold their second Gymnich meeting of this year.
The Gymnich meetings are organised by the member state which holds the EU’s rotating presidency. The informal setting of these meetings creates a perfect environment to hold frank and open discussions on geopolitical developments and the EU’s strategic foreign policy priorities and common approaches.
Depending on the topics being discussed, an invitation to these meetings is often extended to foreign affairs ministers of non-EU countries. The last time a Turkish minister of foreign affairs was invited to a Gymnich meeting was during the Romanian EU presidency in the first half of 2019.
Due to the deteriorating relationship between Ankara and Brussels, no invitation to attend a Gymnich has been extended to Ankara since then.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the geopolitical landscape has changed drastically, forcing the EU to a quicker-than-anticipated policy reset on different issues, such as energy and defence and security. To some extent, this has been the result of a lack of strategic foresight and long-term vision, which has left the EU’s common foreign and security policy (CFSP) stumbling in the geopolitical arena.
FM Hakan Fidan specifically also underlined the need and will to re-engage and reinvigorate EU-Turkey relations and said that it would amount to “strategic blindness” if Ankara was kept out of discussions on the future of the EU.
He added that the EU could not become a true global actor without Turkey.
One could argue that this is an overstatement. However, whether it concerns Russia-Ukraine, energy security, Central Asia, controlling irregular migration, Azeri-Armenian relations, Libya and Syria, and even the current developments in the Sahel, the examples are numerous and various, and have one thing in common - Ankara either already plays a crucial role, or is able to do so.
The prospect of extending an invitation to Fidan for the Gymnich in Toledo was discussed last month during a meeting between the EU’s top foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell (Spanish), and Fidan at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Jakarta last July, some marginal meeting in Jakarta. For more context, Spain as EU Chair for July-December 2023. Indonesia President Joko Widodo this year is Chair ASEAN. From Day-1 war until Day-542 war, only Jokowi, a world leader who visit (both) Kyiv Zelensky & Moscow Putin. Even Jokowi meet again Zelensky in Hiroshima, in the marginal meeting of G7 this year.
However, at the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council meeting held a week later, Borrell was unable to convince the EU foreign ministers to invite Fidan to the Gymnich.
Borrell’s answer in Spanish to the only question being asked after his press remarks gave an indication of which member states were reluctant to invite Fidan.
During his first public meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Fidan said that although Ankara and Washington “may not see eye to eye on every issue, [both are] compel[led] to continue to work together”.
Because in the end, acknowledging strategic differences yet simultaneously understanding the necessity to remain engaged with each other and keep exchanging views on important topics at the highest level is the way to move forward.
And regardless of the way and the format in which the relationship between Ankara and Brussels evolves, the EU and Turkey are even more "compelled to continue to work with each other".
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DEUTSCH
Der türkische Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdogan hat eine Wiederbelebung des Getreideabkommens mit der Ukraine vom Westen abhängig gemacht, der seine Zusagen einhalten müsse. Dem Westen warf er vor, nicht die Maßnahmen ergriffen zu haben, „die es ermöglicht hätten, die durch die Schwarzmeer-Initiative geschaffene positive Atmosphäre in einen Waffenstillstand und dann in ein dauerhaftes Friedensabkommen umzuwandeln“.
Die Ukraine will nach Worten von Präsident Selenskyj gegen Russland im Schwarzen Meer zurückschlagen. Damit wolle sie sicherstellen, dass ihre Gewässer nicht blockiert und Getreide sowie andere Waren ein- und ausgeführt werden könnten.
Die Haltung der Türkei sei „klar“, sagte Erdogan. Sollte sich der Krieg auf das Schwarze Meer ausweiten, werde dies „eine Katastrophe für unsere Region“ sein. Eine „Lösung“ könne aber gefunden werden, fügte der türkische Staatschef mit Blick auf ein kürzliches Telefonat mit dem russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin hinzu.
In dem Telefongespräch mit dem Kreml-Chef habe Ankara vergangene Woche „die Forderungen Russlands zur Kenntnis genommen“, sagte Erdogan, ohne jedoch weitere Details zu nennen. Russland fordert insbesondere die Aufhebung der mit den westlichen Sanktionen verbundenen Blockaden für die Ausfuhr seiner eigenen Agrarprodukte und Düngemitteln.
Die geplante Lieferung westlicher F-16-Kampfflugzeuge dürfte noch Monate dauern – doch das Training ukrainischer Piloten hat Angaben aus Kiew zufolge bereits begonnen. „Die Ausbildung hat schon angefangen“, sagte der ukrainische Verteidigungsminister Olexij Resnikow dem Fernsehsender „24 Kanal“. Auch Ingenieure und Techniker des von Russland angegriffenen Landes erhalten demnach Schulungen. Wo genau diese stattfinden, sagte Resnikow nicht.
Zur Lieferung von F-16-Maschinen an die Ukraine sowie zur Ausbildung ukrainischer Piloten haben sich Dänemark und die Niederlande bereiterklärt. Da es sich um ein Waffensystem aus den USA handelt, braucht es allerdings die Zustimmung Washingtons. Von der US-Regierung hieß es am vergangenen Donnerstag, man wolle Dänemark und den Niederlanden eine schnelle Weitergabe der F-16 ermöglichen. Trotzdem dürfte es noch mehrere Monate dauern, bis die Flugzeuge tatsächlich auch geliefert werden können.
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TURKIYE
Son dönemde dünya siyasetinde oynadığı rol ile dikkatleri üzerine çeken Türkiye ile ilgili İngiltere'den dikkat çeken bir analiz geldi. 'Hakan Fidan faktörü'ne dikkat çekti ve AB'ye Türkiye çağrısında bulundu.
Geçtiğimiz yılın Şubat ayında başlayan Ukrayna savaşı hız kesmeden devam ediyor.
Ukrayna savaşında oynadığı arabulucu rol ve NATO zirvesinde attığı adımlar ile Türkiye dikkatleri üzerine çekmeye devam ediyor.
Manşetinden 'AB neden Türkiye'nin dışişleri bakanını Gymnich toplantısına davet etmeli?' Ankara'nın artan önemine vurgu yaptı.
Bu toplantıların gayri resmi ortamının jeopolitik gelişmeler ve AB'nin stratejik dış politika öncelikleri ve ortak yaklaşımları hakkında samimi ve açık tartışmalar yapmak için mükemmel bir ortam yarattığının altının çizildiği yazıda şu ifadelere yer verildi;
'Tartışılan konulara bağlı olarak, bu toplantılara genellikle AB üyesi olmayan ülkelerin dışişleri bakanları da davet edilir. Bir Türk dışişleri bakanı en son 2019'un ilk yarısında Romanya'nın AB dönem başkanlığı sırasında Gymnich toplantısına davet edilmişti.'
Dünyanın gözü kulağı aylardır Ukrayna'dan gelen haberlerde.
Rusya Devlet Başkanı Putin'in emri ile geçtiğimiz yılın Şubat ayında başlayan savaş Ukrayna'nın doğu bölgelerinde son sürat devam ediyor.
Bir süredir Ukrayna ordusunun taarruzuna karşı savunma pozisyonuna geçen Rusya pek çok bölgede direnişini sürdürürken Ukrayna'dan gelen Haber dünyanın gündemine birinci sıradan giriş yaptı.
Rusya Devlet Başkanı Putin'in Geçtiğimiz yılın Şubat ayında verdiği emir ile başlayan kanlı savaş can almaya devam ediyor.
Ukrayna'nın aylardır beklenen taarruzunun başlaması ve çatışmanın Karadeniz'e de sıçramasının ardından tansiyon zirve yaptı.
Karadeniz'deki tahıl anlaşmasını yeniden edebilmek için masada pek çok plan var.
Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan yönetimindeki Türkiye, Rusya'yı tahıl anlaşmasına geri dönmeye ikna etmeye odaklanmış görünüyor' diyen Alman gazete Türkiye'nin hem Batı hem de Rusya ile görüşmelere devam ettiğini yazdı.
Başka bir deyişle 2022'in Şubat ayında başlayan savaşta iki taraf ile de görüşebilen tek lider olan Erdoğan bu sefer Karadeniz için devreye girdi. Haberde 'Ukraynalıların Rus savunucularına ağır kayıplar verdiği bildiriliyor, ancak Moskova'nın çok katmanlı savunma ağı henüz kırılmadı' denildi.
Ukrayna'daki savaş son sürat devam ederken NATO'dan gelen açıklama dünyanın gündemine birinci sıradan giriş yaptı. Kiev'in NATO üyeliği ve barışın sağlanması için gerekli koşulları açıklayan NATO yetkilisinin sözlerine Kiev ve Moskova'dan yanıt geldi.
Dünyanın gözü kulağı aylardır Ukrayna'dan gelen haberlerde...
Rusya Devlet Başkanı Putin'in Geçtiğimiz yılın Şubat ayında verdiği emir ile başlayan kanlı savaş can almaya devam ediyor.
Ukrayna'nın karşı saldırılarının beklenen başarıyı bir türlü yakalayamaması sonucu NATO'dan flaş bir hamle geldi.
NATO Genel Sekreteri Özel Dairesi Direktörü Stian Jenssen, savaşı bitirmenin ve NATO üyeliği için yol haritasını açıkladı.
Jenssen, Bu kararın sadece Kiev tarafından verilebileceğinin de altını çizdi. Ancak bu sözlere Ukrayna'nın tepkisi sert oldu.
Ukrayna Dışişleri Bakanlığı sözcüsü Oleg Nikolenko 'Ukrayna topraklarının bir kısmından vazgeçme karşılığında Ukrayna'nın NATO'ya katılmasıyla ilgili görüşmeler kesinlikle kabul edilemez' dedi.
'NATO'nun toprak ticareti yapmadığını varsayıyoruz' diyen sözcü NATO'dan gelen bu açıklamanın Kremlin'in elini güçlendireceğini savundu.
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Thank you, as always, for reading. If you have anything like a spark file, or master thought list (spark file sounds so much cooler), let me know how you use it in the comments below.
-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed.
Now figure out, or, prevent catastrophic situations in the Indonesian administration from outside the government. After his mom was nearly killed by a syndicate, now I do it (catch all these blunders, especially blunders by an asshole syndicates) for free. Writer actually facing 12 years attack-simultaneously (physically terror, cyberattack terror) by his (ex) friend in IR UGM / HI UGM (all of them actually indebted to me, at least get a very cheap book). 2 times, my mom nearly got assassinated by my friend with “komplotan” / weird syndicate. Once assassin, forever is assassin, that I was facing in years. I push myself to be (keep) dovish, pacifist, and you can read my pacifist tone in every note I write. A framing that myself propagated for years.
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