Losing a chance to ceasefire

The hard part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch. Zelensky can't and (maybe) stubborn: never wants, never admit Ukraine (actually) wants to negotiate with Kremlin.

There’s no doubt the West’s sanctions regime on Russia is hitting its economy hard (estimates of a 34-35 % GDP contraction this year). But Kremlin is also adapting, and Putin is just as committed to fulfilling his goals in Ukraine. EU hit 8.6 % inflation, highest ever since EU created. U.S. of course painful about inflation. So are they working? Who will tell (repeatedly) to Zelensky it's time to negotiate with Putin after Bennett and Jokowi persuade him?

Berbagai akun linkage dengan Kremlin (directly Kremlin) memang tak aktif sejak Maret 2022. Sehingga tidak bisa dibandingkan dengan akun personal Zelensky.

Sementara berbagai politisi dan akun2 militer di Indonesia makin banyak yang jadi enabler kebrutalan Putin (bukan cuma ex anggota DPR).

Tapi... Fakta bahwa Zelensky tidak merespon apapun (per detik saya memulai mengetik) sampai 71/72 jam pasca pertemuan dengan Jokowi (tidak diposting), saat berbagai tektok Zelensky dengan "pihak yang lebih kecil dibanding Indonesia" segera ditwit Zelensky, menegaskan kekhawatiran awal saya sejak bikin link live blog Russia Ukraine war: pihak yang ga mau berunding bukan Putin, tapi justru Zelensky.

Kunjungan spektakuler ke Kremlin tanpa diketahui media, yang dilakukan oleh Ex PM Bennett (Israel) baru ditwit Zelensky 60an jam. Saya khawatir beneran ga akan ditwit Zelensky tuk pertemuan dengan Jokowi. Dan hanya akan memperburuk: di Indonesia akan makin banyak yang enabler kebrutalan Putin "karena toh Zelensky ga mau berdamai, merespon Jokowi pun tidak".

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There’s a prevailing narrative, mostly by EU media and U.S. media, that those advocating for a diplomatic settlement (Bennett, Erdogan via FM Cavusoglu, then Jokowi) are somehow pressuring or coercing Ukraine. That’s not accurate. What we’re doing is suggesting what we believe is the most effective way to end the war with the least cost, trillion dollar wiped out since January-June 2022 and not only about Russia Ukraine saga. It’s Ukraine’s call.

The Ukrainians aren’t interested in talking to the Russians right now (the Russians aren’t interested either). But the situation may change in the fall, after Ukraine conducts a counteroffensive in the Donbas, with most sophisticated weapons from the West (especially by the U.S. and the U. K.). Most advanced weapons that the U.S. has so far supplied Ukraine, including rocket launchers, are making an impact in their first days on the battlefield, destroying Russian ammunition depots and command centers, Pentagon itself explained this.

Ukrainian tried whatever cost Donbas not like “a 2nd Kherson”. Depending on the result, the prospects could improve.

Russia doesn’t have the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and the ability to spike oil prices to $200 a barrel. Can NATO keep 300,000 forces in high readiness in perpetuity --- in context Russia currently occupied at least 10-12% Ukraine territory? And why were member states surprised when Stoltenberg announced this?

During the last three months, the Russian army has conspicuously shown its weaknesses and is currently unable to defeat a substantially smaller country, regardless successful occupied at least 10-12%. Why should the Europeans rush to rearm? Buying ammunition yes but why to go beyond that?

Don’t think Vladimir Putin is willing to pull out merely for a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality. The Russians now occupy about 10-12% of Ukraine. In Kherson, Moscow is handing out Russian passports, introducing new school curriculum, and openly fueling talk about referendums. Next after Kherson (maybe) is Donbass. Dire situation.

For Kremlin, the price of a settlement has gone up since May. This is a reflection of its gains on the ground. The more gains Russia makes, the bigger the price Kyiv will have to pay when/of talks happen. Can Kyiv regain land? Perhaps. But Zelensky is betting a whole lot. Because promise 300,000 NATO in near Lviv, regardless not in Ukraine territory. Maybe also because more and more sophisticated weapon already landed to Kyiv. So Zelensky still say "NO" about Jokowi persuasion. No tweet by Zelensky after 72 hours ago meet up with Jokowi.

I believe ending the war asap is still preferable to dragging it out in the hope of a total Ukrainian military victory. But even I have to admit that a settlement is nowhere close. And what may have been an acceptable deal in February is no longer an acceptable one in August. Maybe....

Maybe Zelensky very angry to "negotiate" options after Bucha (earlier April). Every option for negotiate very open at least 27-31 March. But Bucha destroy everything mood of negotiations.