Newly discovered quality issue on 737 Max aircraft and (old) painful Ethiopian - Indonesian (Lion Air) victims

My brother is Senior/VP Airworthiness for flagship airlines.

Aug 24, 2023

Seattle Washington 4.51pm

48 Hours ago, 737-800 (N516AS) had a major accident last night at Santa Anna. Boeing's inability to manage itself and build planes will become a national security and national economic concern. Yes, there is not a single airplane in the sky that does not have a bad hole on it. Cleaning out the holes solves the problem 70% of the time, and slapping a doubler on it solves it 95% of the time. Something like this would make me nervous to get on a MAX again, not the previous issues. Boeing and Spirit grapple with newly discovered quality issue on 737 Max aircraft. Last May or 3 months ago, Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystem flags US$31 million hit from 737 fuselage defect. They’ve been building the 737 for five decades and somehow still find new and more expensive ways to fuck it up.

(not 737)

Boeing is at risk of missing delivery targets for its best-selling 737 MAX model after discovering that its largest supplier, Spirit AeroSystems, improperly drilled holes in a component that helps maintain cabin pressure.

The latest issue for Boeing’s cash-cow jet isn’t a safety threat, the Federal Aviation Administration said Wednesday. But it’s another complication for Boeing as it speeds the manufacturing pace of the 737 family while dealing with supply-chain strains and the aftermath of a strike at Spirit, which builds about 70% of the narrowbody jet frames.

Fairly sure the gear is supposed to collapse first and avoid this situation so interested in the report. The gear most likely broke at the fused locations it was designed to fail at, thus keeping the primary structure intact. The part of the wing that looks all mangled up appears to be trailing edge fairing panels, not the wing box. Main landing gear beam outer support (clevis end on left of 2nd pic) connects to a fitting on the rear spar. Definitely repairable. It just depends on the value of the aircraft. 737NGs are quite valuable as Freighter conversions even if the passenger configuration may not deem it worthwhile. Also depends on if insurance covers the cost.

“During factory inspections, we identified fastener holes that did not conform to our specifications in the aft pressure bulkhead on certain 737 airplanes,” Boeing said via email Wednesday. “We understand the issue and required fix, emphasizing that it does not consider the issue to be an immediate threat to the safety of flight for the in-service fleet. However, the company is at a minimum planning for near-term delivery delays for some 737 Max aircraft, making the latest quality issue another in an extended string of headaches that the plane maker and its most important supplier have endured as they work to find a stable production tempo.”

Boeing shares fell 3.4% in after-hours trading on reports of the new MAX issue. The stock had gained 20% this year through Wednesday’s close as demand surges for travel and new jetliners.

U.S. regulators are warning airlines to limit the use of an anti-icing system on Boeing 737 MAX jets in dry air to avoid overheating engine-housing parts, which could cause them to break away from the plane.

The Federal Aviation Administration says the risk to the flying public is serious enough that it will put the order into effect in just 15 days, and without allowing public comment first.

The FAA said if the engine inlet gets too hot, parts of the housing could come off and strike a window, causing decompression and a hazard to passengers in window seats.

The finding affects LEAP-1B engines used on all versions of the MAX. The engines are made by CFM International, a joint venture between General Electric and France’s Safran.

In 2018, a Southwest Airlines passenger died after part of the engine housing on an older version of Boeing’s 737 jet flew off and broke the window next to her seat. That engine failure started with a broken fan blade.

The FAA said there have been no reports of the overheating problem occurring on MAX flights. It said the potential for damage was discovered during flight testing and analysis in June.

Boeing said overheating of the inlets — which are made by Boeing, not CFM — can only happen under “very specific” conditions and wasn’t known until recently.

“Boeing has identified measures to mitigate the potential issue and (is) working with our customers to deploy those measures while a permanent fix is developed,” the company said in a statement.

Building on strong bookings this summer, American Airlines said Thursday it will add three new European destinations next summer and revive another international route that it last flew in 2019.

The announcement comes one day after Delta Air Lines said it will expand service to China later this year.

The news from two of the biggest U.S. carriers underscores the airline industry’s confidence that its strong recovery from the pandemic will continue and that planes will remain packed.

American said that next summer it will add flights to Copenhagen, Naples and Nice, France — all new destinations for the airline — from Philadelphia. It plans to resume flights between Chicago and Venice that were dropped four years ago.

The Fort Worth-based airline said it will also extend seasonal summer service on some transatlantic routes longer than in previous summers. Delta is doing something similar this year.

Dallas-Fort Worth and Denver are two of the biggest hub airports in the U.S. In fact, last year, they were the second and third busiest, respectively, after Atlanta.

That makes the fact that both expect double-digit passenger traffic growth this year all the more remarkable. It’s one thing for a small- or medium-sized airport, like booming Austin, to post such gains as the absolute number of additional fliers is far lower. But for big hubs to grow at that rate means millions more travelers must pass through their gates than the year before.

But that’s exactly what’s happening in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Denver. The former, American Airlines’ largest hub, expects to top 80 million passengers this year — a more than 10% year-over-year increase — DFW CEO Sean Donohue said. DFW came in just shy of its pre-pandemic traffic peak last year when it saw just over 72 million fliers.

Denver, which boasts Frontier Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines’ hubs or bases, expects 78-79 million passengers this year, or as much as a 14% year-over-year increase, airport data show. The airport surpassed its pre-pandemic peak last year when it handled more than 69 million passengers.

What’s behind that growth? Both are the focus of various airline strategies, American has doubled down on DFW amid robust travel demand in the Sunbelt and the connectivity it offers there. While not yet at its peak of 900 daily departures, the Fort Worth-based carrier is over 830 departures on peak days this summer, according to Cirium Diio schedules. More importantly: the average number of seats per departure this summer is 13% higher than in 2019, or 143 seats per flight.

“We’re going to hit 80 million customers this year. We’re really confident in that,” Donohue said. He added that the airport continues to see growth, particularly among international airlines, through the rest of the decade.

American has already said it will add more flights to Shanghai from DFW in January, and launch a new Barcelona nonstop next summer.

In Denver, where 39 new gates were recently completed, Southwest and United plan big expansions with those additional facilities. The former invested in the airport through the pandemic with new routes to places like Bozeman, Mont., Eugene, Ore., and Steamboat Springs, Colo. And the latter, while it has taken longer to rebuild schedules from the pandemic, recently announced several new routes and a new early morning flight bank targeting local travelers.

Those new gates, the first major concourse expansion the airport has undertaken since it opened in 1995, “enabled our carriers to expand and increase their services,” Denver Airport Chief Operating Officer Steve Jaquith said. “Thirty-nine new gates is the equivalent of a medium-sized airport built within the framework of Denver International Airport. The demand is definitely there to fill that.”

The passenger growth in DFW and Denver exceeds national forecasts. Screening numbers from the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) show passenger numbers holding at roughly 2019 levels, or a little above. And trade group Airlines for America only forecast a roughly 1% increase in passenger traffic this summer compared to four years ago.

That makes the jumps in DFW and Denver all the more notable. Other big hubs, like Chicago O’Hare, anticipate slower passenger growth more in line with historic low-single-digit trends.

One thing that does not look like it will change this year: DFW and Denver’s respective spots on the Airport Council International-North America’s annual ranking of busiest airports. DFW’s forecast is slightly above Denver’s and, as Cirium Diio schedules show, there are simply more seats scheduled at the former through it this year than at the latter. But of course anything is possible for what is ultimately about bragging rights.

“It feels good to be number two, but we don’t get there by beating other airports,” Donohue said. “We get there by running a really great airport.”

Atlanta, long the busiest airport in the U.S. and world, anticipates passenger numbers to near 100 million this year.

All the passenger growth means expansion is top of mind for executives at both DFW and Denver. DFW is in the midst of a $4.9 billion capital plan that includes rebuilding Terminal C, which dates to when it opened in the 1970s, and adding piers to terminals A and C that will add a net nine new gates in the coming years. A new 15-gate Terminal F is scheduled to open in 2026. American will use the new gates in terminals A and C, and is expected to use most of the new F terminal.

Denver is focused on a major renovation of the “Great Hall” in its main terminal building. The delayed and over-budget project that includes new and expanded check-in areas and security checkpoints is scheduled to open in phases through around 2028. Denver will also introduce new carriages on its terminal-concourse train beginning later this year, and open 14 new gates on the eastern end of Concourse A for Frontier next year.

Both Donohue of DFW and Jaquith of Denver emphasized the need for high quality facilities and services for travelers. Both have been issues at airports across the country as traffic rebounded faster than expected straining facilities, and staffing shortages and supply chain backups delayed the reopening of many concessions. Those issues have eased this summer but, as a recent connection through Denver showed, the airport is still in the process of building out concessions in many of its newly opened gate areas.

Atlanta-based Delta announced on Wednesday that it expand China service with 10 flights per week to Shanghai from Seattle and Detroit. International travel to and from China has been slower to recover than just about any other region due to COVID-19 restrictions.

The problem highlighted by the FAA involves something called engine anti-ice, in which hot air from the engine is used to heat the housing and prevent the formation of ice that could be sucked into the engines.

An effort by former Boeing engineers, now cruciallly backed by the USAF and Northrop Grumman, to break the Airbus/Boeing duopoly. They are pitching the Blended Wing Body airplane design that Boeing studied to death but never moved on.

The FAA is dictating that flight manuals tell pilots and airlines not to use engine anti-ice in dry air for more than five minutes. Otherwise, the FAA said, “during certain combinations of altitude, total air temperature” and engine settings, the engine inlet inner barrel could be heated beyond its design limit. That could cause the inlet barrel to fail and damage a piece of housing called the inlet cowl.

If parts break off from the engine housing, they could not only break a window but might hit other key parts of the plane, causing pilots to lose control, the FAA said.

The FAA indicated it will publish the rule in the Federal Register on Thursday.

Two Boeing MAX jets crashed in 2018 and 2019, killing 346 people. Investigations focused on an automated flight-control system that pushed the nose of the plane down based on faulty sensor readings. Boeing did not tell pilots and airlines about the system until after the first crash.

The new issue will affect near-term 737 deliveries, including a plane going to the Malaysian Airline System, as Boeing conducts inspections and determines how many models were affected and what work they need, the spokesperson said. Boeing is evaluating whether it will still be able to reach its target of delivering between 400 and 450 of the 737-family jets this year.

Boeing every month updates its website data for gross orders, cancellations and orders classified under an accounting rule called ASC 606. ASC 606 means orders are “iffy” for contractual or financial reasons with the customer.

The difference between gross orders and net orders represents cancellations, for whatever reason. The airline or lessor may have decided to cancel outright. Some orders might have been swapped within the family (for example, from a 737-8 to a 737-10). Some orders may have been swapped (cancelled) between models—for example, from the MAX to the 787. Boeing’s cumulative statistics haven’t revealed the difference between gross and net orders—until now.

ASC 606-classified order adjustments are excluded from the gross/net tally, Boeing tells me. In other words, for purposes of the tallies, the ASC 606 orders remain included in the gross numbers. They’re still orders at this stage, even if iffy. Airbus, operating under European accounting rules, doesn’t have to identify its iffy orders; LNA has made its best estimate for years of Airbus “iffy” orders, however, in an effort to level the publicly reported playing field. There are times when discussing orders and backlogs that we ignore Boeing’s ASC 606 classification when comparing with the Airbus orders.

For starters, Boeing only confirmed that ASC 606 data is not included in its first-ever sub-type reveal. But a Boeing spokesperson also said she would not comment on the math displayed below. The math is simple. We took the gross orders and subtracted the sum of the stated backlogs and deliveries to arrive at how many cancellations, including order swaps, have been recorded for each family member.

Boeing doesn’t break out the swaps or the aggregate cancellations. But it is public knowledge that, for example, Southwest Airlines swapped some 737-7 orders for the larger 737-8. We also know that when the 737-10 program was launched in 2013, United Airlines swapped 737-8 and 737-9 orders for the 737-10. During the extended, 21-month grounding of the MAX, we know that Air Lease Corp. swapped some MAX orders for 787s.

We know that during the COVID pandemic, some airlines ceased operations, leaving Boeing with an inventory of MAXes that were built and a hole in the order book.

For the 777X, some 777-8 passenger models were swapped for the 777-8F by Qatar Airways and by Emirates Airline for the 777-9. The future of the 777-8P relies on the future of the 777-8F, in our estimation. Both airplanes dimensionally are now the same. But with only eight firm orders today for the -8P, production seems unlikely absent new orders for this highly niche, super-long range airplane.

2 Years ago (November 2021), Boeing has reached an agreement with the families of the 157 people who died in the Ethiopia 737 Max crash in 2019.

The plane maker accepts liability for their deaths, according to court documents in Chicago. Boeing accepts responsibility for the crash of ET302 - a disaster which claimed the lives of 157 people from 35 different countries.

The world may have moved on and the 737 Max may be flying again, but for many of the families of those who died, the grief and sense of loss remains very raw indeed.

In the period since the two accidents involving the 737 Max, Boeing has faced criticism for appearing to deflect blame elsewhere, for example by questioning the abilities of the pilots.

In return, families of the victims will not seek punitive damages from the company.

Lawyers for the victims' families said Boeing would still be held "fully accountable", welcoming the agreement as a significant milestone. Nearly 3 years ago, January 2021, Boeing agreed to a deferred prosecution agreement with the US Department of Justice, including $2.5bn (£1.9bn) in fines and compensation stemming from the 737 Max crashes, including the Lion Air crash in October 2018, all 189 people onboard the plane died.

The 353-page report found the jet should have been grounded before departing on the fatal flight because of an earlier cockpit issue.

However, because the issue was not recorded properly the plane was allowed to take off without the fault being fixed, it said.

Further, a crucial sensor - which had been bought from a repair shop in Florida - had not been properly tested, the report found. On Friday, the US aviation regulator revoked the company's certification.

The sensor fed information to the plane's Manoeuvring Characteristics Augmentation System - or MCAS. That software, which is designed to help prevent the 737 Max from stalling, has been a focus for investigators trying to find the cause of both the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines crashes.

Indonesian investigators identified issues with the system, which repeatedly pushed the plane's nose down, leaving pilots fighting for control. The report also found that 31 pages were missing from the plane's maintenance log.

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