Shattered Region

If a political figure says something that resonates with you and doesn’t act on it, it is evidence they are manipulating you. Despite an uneasy ceasefire in the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran, there's no telling what will come next, particularly from a volatile US administration led by President Donald Trump that has elevated self-contradiction, confusion and policy U-turns to an art of geostrategic chaos. Trump’s current foreign policy on the Middle East is not only driven by military might, but it is determined by technology, investment and transactional pragmatism. This isn't the first time the US government stood on the wrong side of an essential human rights challenge.

The truth doesn't begin with what you've seen. It begins with who showed it to you and why. Same as why Trump may started realize that unwavering support for Israeli costly him too much.

Much will depend on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's next moves and Iran's reactions; less will hinge on the US itself. Middle East politics is still heading toward an unclear direction, despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to the White House and his talk with United States President Donald Trump regarding the planned “60 days ceasefire”. It is certainly encouraging to see that the slaughter of tens of thousands of innocent people by Israel with the direct support of the US has not gone entirely unnoticed by the American public. A few thousand more dead babies and, boy, we might just put foot down.

French President Macron is unhappy about Trump’s efforts to undermine a UN conference last month led by France and Saudi Arabia where Macron would announce French recognition of a Palestinian state. The conference was postponed when Israel bombed Iran. Everybody just found out they can't or won't fight a war for the entity but few seem to realize how monumental the fallout will be. Ultimately it costs them "freedom of action" which is terminal no matter what positions any of these morons take or don't take. Israel says that recognition of a Palestinian state "would be seen as a reward for Hamas terrorism," but the Israeli government (and especially Netanyahu) have long opposed a Palestinian state under any circumstances. Hamas is just the latest excuse. Zionist logic is simple: We have the right to exist. You have the right to disappear. And if you object, we will call you the aggressor.

Since his re-election, President Trump has taken a back seat to Netanyahu. He has been largely reacting, often appearing unpleasantly surprised by the latter's strategic moves and cynical manipulations - just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has for a long time been playing the US president.

Netanyahu's recent bombing of Iran only aggravated the West's "Israel problem", by surrendering and sacrificing Washington's own national interests and professed values to an untrustworthy and purely self-interested Israeli "ally".

Trump, who has portrayed himself as an anti-war president, proclaimed in 2019 that great nations do not start forever wars. He is uninterested in exporting liberalism or democracy abroad. I can see an Israel skeptic Republican candidate for President coming along in 2028 and getting a lot of support. Maybe it will be Massie, maybe someone else. Republicans under 50 have a majority negative opinion on Israel. Young people have phones and see the dead Palestinian children on social media. Many of us are disgusted when our government collaborates with Israel or politicians declare undying support for this. What happens when both parties no longer support Israel? That day is coming.

The rapidly shifting MAGA discourse on Israel is bigger than it may seem at first: Tucker Carlson’s pointing the finger at Isreal’s Mossad as being behind Epstein’s operation is getting much attention, although this connection is being made widely in parts of the MAGA world. But the increasing split on Israel within MAGA goes well beyond anger over the Epstein files.

It’s been brewing over several issues: Gaza, the Iran war, and foreign aid – as well as anger over the return of neocon influence. On Gaza, much of the attention has focused on the Democrats who have dramatically turned away from Israel, with every major poll showing this trend. But what has been missed is that Republican views of Israel have also become more negative since the Gaza war, with a recent Pew poll showing that the biggest shift nationally has been among Republicans under the age of 50, going from 35% negative views of Israel in 2022 to 50% negative in 2025.

The Iran war and the return of loud neocon voices pushing for further US military involvement has angered many in the MAGA world as has been widely reported. Connected to this is the increasing cost of supporting Israel, reaching well over $20 billion since the Gaza war started, at a time when MAGA world expects budget cuts, while many Trump supporters are struggling.

Carlson connecting the criticism of Israel with broader suppression of free speech - something that the left has been protesting - seems to also resonate with many on the right. The strongest remaining voices of support for Israel on the right are Evangelical Christians. But there has been evidence that support for Israel among younger Evangelicals has also been dropping in recent years, and the number of Evangelicals in America has been declining. Now, some in MAGA world are publicly challenging the very assumption that support for the modern state of Israel is biblically mandated.

It all adds up to an unexpected vigorous divide on Israel within MAGA. How all this will affect Trump’s own policies – or, in turn, how Trump himself will impact the debate – remains unclear, but it will be fascinating to watch. It is not just Democrats who are souring on Israel as it commits genocide in Gaza. So are many Republicans. The main question is when Trump will catch up.