Unexpected Trouble on NATO Enlargement

If everyone think Russia now really completely complicated than the West, maybe this assumes really wrong.

The head of the leading faction of the European Parliament threatened Turkiye with isolation in NATO in case of blocking the admission of Finland and Sweden to the alliance. Once again: Turkiye, a country which provided massive drone named “Bayraktar” then really helping Ukraine to defend from Atrocities Russia. turkiye, a country which very active “simultaneously-shuttle diplomacy” to make a ceasefire between Russia - Ukraine.

Russia will (immediately) strengthen the grouping of troops on the Finnish border if Finland joins NATO. This was stated by the head of the Federation Council Committee on Defence Viktor Bondarev.

Finland and Sweden so far has been more reasonable in their response vis-a-vis PKK. Others make very clear that they are fundamentally bothered by Turkey’s membership to NATO, they see Ankara as a non-Western society that doesn’t deserve to be part of transatlantic alliance. Turkiye Foreign Minister Cavusoglu says #Finland constructive, #Sweden 'provocative' in #NATO talks. So far the more problem is Ankara - Stockholm, not Ankara - Helsinki, amid the fact Finland (not Sweden) have a direct-border, 1,340 km, with Russia.

Putin can now pat himself on the back for something else: convincing a Finnish political elite that was wedded to military non-alignment between NATO and Russia for plunging fully into the Western camp. This week, after weeks of intense deliberations, Finland's President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin released a joint statement endorsing Helsinki's bid to join NATO. Finland's neighbor Sweden is likely to submit its own application to NATO as soon as next week.

Finland's application for NATO membership will likely be approved rapidly. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg all but confirmed that the alliance would essentially rubber-stamp Finland's (and Sweden's) accession without so much as a furrowed brow. "It's their decision," Stoltenberg told reporters last month. "But if they decide to apply, Finland and Sweden will be warmly welcomed, and I expect that process to go quickly." Washington immediately praised Helsinki's decision, with Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby calling it "historic." Western diplomats have indicated that Finland's acceptance into the alliance is a done deal, even if lawmakers in all of NATO's 30 member states need to approve it.

Madeleine Albright (passed away nearly 2 months ago), Michael McFaul (ex US ambassador to the Russia), and Bill Clinton never regretted about NATO enlargement.

No one can ignore it: Putin has dug Russia into a massive geopolitical hole. The country he so desperately wants to develop as a 21st century superpower is now weaker today than it was before the invasion of Ukraine. His war of choice was supposed to be a relatively quick and painless affair, where Russian soldiers would easily strut into Kyiv, push Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into exile and be thanked by a grateful Ukrainian population with cheers and flowers. It hasn't worked out that way.

The invasion is nothing short of a hard, long slog for the Russian soldiers who are unfortunate enough to execute orders from incompetent officers. While Moscow may be making small territorial inroads in the east (according to Ukrainian security officials, Russian forces have taken about 80 percent of the Donbas), the gains are coming at a steep cost in Russian lives and equipment. Outside the battlefield, Putin's war is diminishing Russia's geopolitical position and threatening its economy with an 11 percent contraction. Nearly 4 million Russians have left Russia this year, including tens of thousands of high-skilled technology workers who no longer see a near-term future in their own country.

NATO, however, would be making a mistake fast-tracking Finland's accession. This isn't because Finland has a mediocre military or fails to meet NATO standards. Given the Finnish military's recent history of training exercises with the alliance, it wouldn't take much work to fully integrate the Nordic nation into NATO structures.

Bringing another member into NATO, however, is a weighty decision that comes with serious and solemn defense responsibilities for the rest of the alliance. This is particular true for the United States, which by virtue of its size, military heft and leadership role in NATO's own institutions—the alliance's top general has always been an American—has carried NATO on its back ever since the organization was established 73 years ago.

This wouldn't be as big of an issue if responsibilities within the alliance were spread out evenly among its members. But this has never been the case. Most of the burden lies on Washington's shoulders. It is the U.S. that is often called to duty and expected to lead the response, with token European military support. The crisis in Ukraine is no different; the U.S. troop presence in Europe has surged to 100,000 (a 20 percent increase since January), the highest since 2005. The U.K., which decided to station 8,000 personnel in Europe between April and June, is a distant second. France, one of the most capable militaries on the European continent, has deployed 500 troops to Romania and another 200 to Estonia since Russia's invasion, less than 4 percent of what the U.S. has contributed during the same time.

If the U.S. chooses to support Finland's NATO accession, then it should insist that Europeans, not Americans, are the ones deploying troops to Finnish territory and helping Helsinki defend the 830 mile-long Russian-Finnish border. Such a step would not only introduce a little more equitability into NATO operations, but would go a long way toward matching Europe's newfound rhetoric about defense with concrete action.