Worst scenario: Erdogan regret to helping the U.S. and NATO
Arguably, Bayraktar Drone (by Turkiye Government; specifically Turkiye military) helping or contribute 40% of "defending Kyiv" amid 120km convoy of Russian tanks. Arguably (too), for entirely Russia-Ukraine war since Feb 24th - May 24th (today), Bayraktar contribute 13-15%. All NATO until today failed to agree on (giving for free) current jet fighters, so Ukrainian really get a significant help via Bayraktar Drone.
Morale rises once you realize your own strength. And Turkiye, not EU member, not rich country, fulfill higher morale standard than entirely NATO member, to helping Ukraine.
Imagine if Turkiye flip-flops, switch to helping Russia side.
Even until today, Turkiye (82 million population) contribute is bigger than Germany (83 mil) to helping Ukraine. In March, because Erdogan effort, Trilateral meeting held in Istanbul amid Russia, Ukraine, Turkiye. And Israel strengthens cooperating with Turkiye: for 1st time since 2008, Israeli President visit Istanbul. As a NATO member but have a "long-history to flip-flops decision", maybe all NATO members surprise when Turkiye really helps Ukraine.
Turkiye, especially Erdogan, just asking 1 gift: all PKK & SDF members in Finland & Sweden get deported/extraded to Turkiye. But NATO, and also Finland-Sweden never fulfilled this plea. Like GAM (Aceh Movement), PKK & SDF choose Finland & Sweden to be a safe haven.
Now Turkiye blocking Finland and Sweden NATO bid, the dispute with Greece, and a possible military operation to Syria. Erdogan says Turkiye made a mistake by re-accepting Greece into NATO.
After 3 months effort to helps Ukraine, Erdogan wants a great bargain with Biden, but Biden is too busy to handle Taiwan and also QUAD meeting (*will be new PM held, means new elected PM Australia Anthony Albanese) this week.
Turkish foreign ministry summons US Ambassador Flake to give him a dressing down over US security alert in Istanbul which warned the US citizens on a heavy handed Turkish police intervention against the Turkish opposition rally.
Erdogan demands concrete steps from Sweden against PKK and SDF that indicate it shares Turkiye’s concerns. Erdogan told Sweden & Finland that ignoring the threat posed by terror groups to a NATO ally wouldn’t be consistent with the spirit of the alliance, asked for respect.
PKK & SDF flags are often displayed freely in Sweden & Finland (like GAM flag). Doesn't this mean that Sweden & Finland supports PKK? No. It's just that Swedish & Finnish freedom of speech laws allow anyone to wave a flag of any terrorist group if you have a demonstration permit.
Sweden did decide to add 100 million SEK (about 10 million USD) in aid to the civilian population in Northeast Syria (AANES) in 2019. This aid went to causes like supporting victims of sexual violence, to water, agriculture, small businesses, not YPG. This is why Turkiye heating a weapon again to Syria.
Especially on Sweden. Sweden does consider the PKK a terrorist entity & the Migration Agency & Swedish Security Service appear to deny asylum to anyone suspected of PKK ties. So the “Sweden is a safe haven” claim from Erdogan is at least overly simplistic.
While Sweden is now denying several extradition request, it has extradited PKK suspects, the last case in 2020. If courts deny extradition now it is because a) the evidence is weak) Turkiye cannot guarantee a fair trial. Another proof about "not guaranteed a fair trial" is immediately 3 weeks ago on dispute between Germany & Turkiye.
Okay: Erdogan maybe regret to help "more than imagining" another NATO member on Russia-Ukraine saga. So, NATO not only underestimated Turkiye on helping, but also underestimated Turkiye capabilities when another NATO compares with (Total Military capacity of) Sweden & Finland. Anyone cynical is very easy to say "take out Turkiye from NATO, and approve Sweden & Finland". but maybe a lot people not only forget about Bayraktar successful story in Ukraine. Everyone maybe forget several nuclear weapon, US government property, stationed in Incirlik Turkiye.
I'm really afraid not about Putin call Erdogan to provoke "nah, NATO just forget your presence". I'm afraid if China provoke Turkiye and Erdogan really convinced ---- then, helping Russia. No longer helping Ukraine.
And Biden too busy in Pacific with Strategic Ambiguity.