ASEAN 56 Years: How More Proper to Mitigate (Aggressive) China Because Beijing Feel Threatened by (Aggressive) U.S. and co. in Indo-Pacific
Juneau Alaska 0.44am Aug 7 / Manila and Beijing 4.44pm Aug 7 / Jakarta 3.44pm Aug 7 / DC 4.44am Aug 7
Reported around 10pm Juneau Alaska time Aug 6th, 2023 (but the incident not yet known exactly time), eleven Chinese and Russian warships broke into U.S. territorial waters near Alaska. The ‘limitless partnership’ between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin continues to gravely threaten the national security of the U.S. Apparently, WSJ already reported earlier, but “very quiet” response. After several media re-reporting again, this Alaska incident finally get attention.
Four U.S. Navy warships and Boeing P-8 Poseidon aircraft (American maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft developed and produced by Boeing Defense, Space & Security for US NAVY) were recently dispatched to the Aleutian Islands following an incursion of 11 foreign military vessels in American waters. The exact time and location of the incursion was not made public, and information about the event is still being declassified.
Senator Daniel Scott Sullivan confirmed the event happened “within the last few days,” and that while the military response was robust — four naval destroyers were dispatched to the ships’ location — it was also uncommon.
“First, this is unprecedented, not just for Alaska, but for America to have 11 warships jointly being operated by the Chinese and Russians — who are increasingly working together — essentially doing freedom of navigation and navigation operations incursions into Alaska’s area,” Sullivan said.
Ships from other nations are permitted to complete voyages through waters identified as territories of another country in a practice known as innocent passage. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas defines innocent passage as travel “not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State” whose waters are transited — but the 11 transiting vessels discovered recently were identified as military ships.
Arguably this is the 2nd incident and AFTER the “Alaska incident”, not BEFORE, Saturday Aug 5th, 2023, incident between Philippines and China. The Philippines government officially condemned China's Coast Guard on Sunday (Aug 6th, around 10 hours after Saturday incident) for firing water cannon at its vessels in the disputed South China Sea, describing it as "illegal" and "dangerous". From PoV (point of view China), China said it had taken "necessary controls" against Philippines boats that had "illegally" entered its waters.
The Saturday (Aug 5th) incident just 3 days before 56 years of ASEAN (August 8), and yes, also 58 years of Singapore——gain Independence Day since August 9).
Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, through which trillions of dollars in trade passes annually, and has ignored a 2016 international court ruling that its assertion has no legal basis.
The latest incident took place as the Philippine Coast Guard escorted boats carrying food, water, fuel and other supplies for Filipino military personnel stationed at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands. Manila summoned Beijing's envoy Monday (Aug 7th) after the China Coast Guard blocked and water cannoned Philippine vessels in the disputed South China Sea, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said.
"Our Secretary of Foreign Affairs (Enrique A. Manalo) summoned Ambassador Huang (Huang Xilian) today and gave him a note verbale including pictures, video about what happened, and we are awaiting their reply. The position of China, of course, is they say 'this is ours so we are defending it' and we, for our part, are saying 'no, we own it so we are defending it'. So that becomes a grey area that we are discussing." Marcos explained.
Second Thomas Shoal is about 200 kilometres (124 miles) from the Philippine Island of Palawan and more than 1,000 kilometres from China's nearest major landmass of Hainan island.
China's coast guard and navy vessels routinely block or shadow Philippine ships patrolling the contested waters, Manila says.
Saturday's incident was the first time since November 2021 that the Chinese coast guard had used water cannon against a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal.
Manila and Beijing have a long history of maritime disputes over the South China Sea.
However then Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, who was in power from 2016 to 2022, was reluctant to criticise his more powerful neighbor as he sought closer ties with Beijing in the hope of attracting investment. Duterte met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing (July 17, nearly 3 weeks ago), with Xi Jinping welcoming the former Philippine chief executive at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, according to China's state media. Duterte was joined by former executive secretary Salvador Medialdea, while Xi was with State Counselor Wang Yi, Communist Party of China (CPC) Committee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs member Ma Zhaoxu, Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Sun Weidong, and Assistant Foreign Minister Hua Chunying.
Duterte paid a visit to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Wednesday night, August 2nd (5 days ago), to discuss his recent meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and “other issues,” Malacañang said.
And just 3 days after Duterte met Bongbong Marcos, Philippines - China tension rocketed again in the sea.
Back again in April 2023. Bongbong hosted former Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (April 22, 2023). Marcos's meeting with Qin occurred after the Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Huang Xilian's controversial remark about overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in Taiwan. Then today (Aug 7th), around 3 months and 2 weeks after Bongbong - Qin Gang meeting, Ambassador Huang Xilian summoned. The Philippines and China have agreed to establish more lines of communication to "immediately resolve" any event in the West Philippine Sea involving the two countries, according to an official statement April 22.
May 2023, Philippine authorities have rescued 1,090 people from several Asian nations who were trafficked into the country, held captive and forced to run online scams, an official said Saturday. International alarm has grown in recent months over internet scams in the region often staffed by trafficking victims tricked or coerced into promoting bogus crypto investments.
Michelle Sabino, a spokeswoman for the Philippine national police force's anti-cybercrime group, said officers raided a cluster of buildings in Mabalacat city, about 90 kilometers north of Manila. Victims were mostly Chinese nationals, Vietnamese, Filipinos, Indonesians, Malaysians, Thais, Taiwanese, Burmese (Myanmar), Hong Kongers, and Nepalese. Thanks to aggressive vessels by China in every ASEAN country, the case of trafficking linkage with China arguably rocketed by number. Indonesian authorities have arrested 12 people including a policeman and an immigration officer accused of trafficking 122 people to Cambodia to sell their kidneys, officials said (July 20, 2023).
Back again to Bongbong - Qin Gang. Funniest - awkward, April 23 or just around 13-14 hours after Bongbong - Qin Gang meeting, incident again between Philippines and China. Chinese coast guard ship cut off a Philippine patrol vessel carrying journalists in the disputed South China Sea, causing a near-collision.
The BRP Malapascua and BRP Malabrigo were shadowed by Chinese navy and coast guard ships, and ordered to leave the waters several times during the six-day journey.
"We would have collided on the bow had I not cut the engine and thrown it in reverse," Malapascua commanding officer Rodel Hernandez told reporters describing it as an encounter between "David and Goliath".
The incident happened after the Philippine coast guard boats approached Second Thomas Shoal, where Philippine marines are stationed in a run-down navy ship grounded to assert Manila's territorial claim in the waters.
As the 44-metre (144-feet) Malapascua neared the shoal, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel more than twice its size sailed into its path.
Hernandez said the Chinese ship came within 45 metres of his boat and only his quick actions avoided the steel-hulled vessels crashing into each other.
Since taking office June 30, 2022, Marcos has insisted he will not let China trample on the Philippines' rights in the sea -- in contrast to his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte who was reluctant to criticise Beijing. But he still respects China. Bongbong met Chinese President Xi Jinping 2 times. First, Bongbong met Chinese President Xi Jinping in a historic bilateral meeting in Bangkok, Thailand on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit (November 18, 2022), hours before Xi Jinping met VP U.S. Kamala Devi Harris (also in Bangkok). January 4, 2023, Bongbong Marcos and Xi Jinping stand together in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, a state visit at Xi's invitation.
Bongbong Marcos has meanwhile gravitated towards the Philippines' traditional ally, the United States, as he seeks to strengthen their defence ties. This shift has alarmed China, which has accused Washington of trying to drive a wedge between Beijing and Manila.
After the incident in April 2023 between Philippines and China, Bongbong announced (April 25, just 51 hours after incident) the locations of four more military bases it is allowing the United States to use on top of the five agreed on under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, or EDCA. Bongbong hosted Vice President Kamala Devi Harris at the Malacanang presidential palace in Manila, Philippines, November 21, 2022, around 3 days after the APEC Summit in Bangkok.
The White House touted the “ironclad” relationship between the two countries as exhibited by the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), which allows American troops to operate in a number of Philippine military facilities. The Biden administration also announced a doubling of the shared bases, an injection of US$82 million for EDCA, and that more is on the way.
The four additional bases include sites near the South China Sea and another not far from self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.
Harris’ brief visit had three effects. First, it was a direct statement to China by the Biden administration about maritime territories – arguably the most direct, alongside frequent US Navy operations within the South China Sea. Second, it allowed Harris to splash the cash to back up a range of US promises. And third, with Marcos new to the role, it reminded the Philippines of US dominance in shaping the region’s geopolitical narrative.
Most Philippine leaders have been aligned to American priorities following the country’s independence from the United States in 1946. Ferdinand Marcos Sr, the dictator of the 1970s and 1980s, and father to the current president, was among the most fervently pro-American rulers. Former president Rodrigo Duterte, barring his affinity for Donald Trump, stood out for his rocky relationship with the United States. Not yet six months into his term as leader, Marcos Jr is already echoing his father’s preference for American leadership. Despite talking up an “independent foreign policy” in July 2022, days after to be Philippines President, Bongbong told Harris, “I do not see a future for the Philippines that does not include the United States.”
In September 2022, Marcos had talks with President Joe Biden in New York, despite an order from a US court regarding human rights violations by his family. But the US government acknowledged Marcos’ diplomatic immunities and allowed him entry. Weeks later, defence officials from both countries met to discuss holding more joint military drills, aiming to surpass the record-breaking participation of 9,000 troops in the war games last April. Then in October 2022, Washington granted the Philippines US$100 million worth of foreign military aid.
The Philippines has a troubled history with the US military presence. After 48 years as an American colony, many of the Philippines’ contemporary laws, economic policies and educational systems have been shaped by the United States. This includes a flurry of military pacts, which, despite the banning of US bases under a historic decision by the Philippine legislature in 1991 and the subsequent US withdrawal from the naval base at Subic Bay, still allows American troops a constant rotational presence in the archipelago. As per the Visiting Forces Agreement of 1999, the United States holds jurisdiction over any visiting troop committing a crime in the Philippines, simulating diplomatic protections.
Because of the revitalised EDCA, groups such as the International League of Peoples’ Struggle (ILPS) and foreign policy experts have been reminded of the crimes committed by US soldiers on Philippine soil. The ILPS warns the Philippines could be a staging ground for intensified US action in the region.
The strengthening of EDCA signals a significant step up in American posturing. The Philippines clearly has a part to play in Biden’s “integrated deterrence” strategy for the Indo-Pacific in drawing in a wide net of alliances across the region.
The Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI) crafted in April 2022, outlines steps for tougher US presence in the Indo-Pacific region in terms of its armed forces, digital influence and surveillance. The US Congress has granted this program US$7.1 billion for 2022-23.
ASEAN countries are important partners for the United States, with military agreements already in place for Vietnam and Singapore. But the Philippines is historically the most willing to accommodate the United States, serving as a quasi-auxiliary force in conflicts such as the Korean, Vietnam and Afghan wars.
Despite American influence in the region, most ASEAN partners are likely still reluctant to be dragged into any situation that forces them to side with either China or the United States. The Philippines appears differently minded. Marcos, for example, spoke of a “joint response” for Taiwan should tensions escalate.
The dilemma is always the danger – which side is escalating, which side is responding? The Philippines faces difficult decisions. Caught between provocations and pledges of military aid and soldiers, the Marcos government treads near a tripwire of potential conflicts.
China has warned the expanded EDCA could endanger regional peace, and accused Washington of having a "zero-sum mentality."
The largest-ever war games between the Philippines and the United States, which end Friday, have also drawn Beijing's ire.
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Because (vessels) Russia and China are near Alaska, the US Navy, no blink eye, immediately sent 4 warships to expel Russia and China vessels. Contrary, based on the situation in April 2023, Philippines v China just like David v Goliath, because very big, or from PoV (point of view) Philippines navy, “Chinese Coast Guard vessel more than twice its size sailed into its path.”
Incidents between ASEAN Countries (not only Philippines) and China will repeat more and more again. The detailed timeline, very awkward. Just days after (former) FM Chinese in Manila (April). Just days after Duterte - Bongbong meeting to follow up Duterte’s visit to Beijing (August incident).
The British, American, Japan, and Indian governments are actively aligning elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific region to uphold a rules-based order against China’s government, by the AUKUS alliance and the QUAD alliance. Opposite, China set a-long term plan to expel the U.S. (also the entire West alliance) from Diego Garcia base (UK / British Ministry of Defence facility leased to the United States Navy, location in the middle Indian Ocean) until Guam air base. With a movement across Africa to expel the West, after Sudan in April and now Niger - Mali - Burkina Faso, the Diego Garcia Base is currently very crucial - strategic because it is just around 5,000 km from Niger.
Various challenges facing the region. These included the COVID-19 pandemic, major power rivalry between the United States and China, ongoing maritime, Burma / Myanmar Issue, territorial disputes, and the effects of climate change.
Attempts to conclude a Code of Conduct between China and ASEAN members in the South China Sea also continued to stagnate in 2022. Cambodia (ASEAN Chair 2022, before Indonesia as Chair 2023) previously blocked mention of the dispute from ASEAN statements, notably in 2012 and 2016, when it maintained that the disputes were bilateral and should be resolved between the claimant states and not by ASEAN as a whole.
Cambodia’s historic stance on the dispute and its close relationship with China made the likelihood of it leading to a resolution unlikely. Despite leaders meeting at the ASEAN summits in November, there has been limited progress on finalizing a code. Just hours before ASEAN 56 years tomorrow, Cambodian King Norodom Sihamoni appoints Hun Manet son of Hun Sen, as the country's new leader, succeeding his father Hun Sen who is stepping down after nearly four decades of hardline rule. However, to officially become the country's new leader the 45-year-old must win a confidence vote in parliament set for August 22.
Hun Manet served in the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces (RCAF) as the commander of the Royal Cambodian Army. He is the eldest son of prime minister Hun Sen and Bun Rany. He also leads the nation's counterterrorism taskforce.
Hun Manet grew up and received his general education in Phnom Penh and later joined the armed forces in 1995, the same year he entered the United States Military Academy at West Point. Having received his diploma in 1999, Manet became the first Cambodian ever to graduate from the prestigious academy. He was seen as a potential ally for the US like Bongbong, but since returning home he has rebuilt the military with China’s help.
When Cambodia’s long-serving Prime Minister Hun Sen visited Beijing in February 2020 (1 month before coronavirus), trailing behind him as he shook hands with Foreign Minister Wang Yi was his eldest son, Hun Manet.
To discerning eyes, the scene was evidence not only of Hun Sen’s strengthening ties with Beijing – the visit took place despite the widespread suspension of flights to China amid the first wave of coronavirus infections – but also of Manet’s ascendancy as his father’s preferred successor.
While other countries have sanctioned Hun Sen’s government over alleged human rights issues, labour abuses and corruption, China’s relationship with Cambodia has been going from strength to strength. And with the United States and China locked in a growing struggle for influence in Southeast Asia, much energy is being expended in trying to discern which way this apparent leader in waiting will lean: towards the West or Beijing?
Newly appointed PM Hun Manet, eldest son Hun Sen, passes the honour guard during a ceremony in Phnom Penh to accept 290 Chinese military trucks. Photo: AFP
Indonesia assumes the ASEAN chairmanship riding high on its success as G-20 President in 2022. Despite major obstacles to the presidency, including the war between Russia and Ukraine and the global economic instability caused by COVID-19, Indonesia hosted a successful summit that launched a $1.4 billion Pandemic Fund to support low and middle-income countries to tackle future global health threats.
This has given Jokowi’s leadership a diplomatic boost. Hopes are high that Indonesia can replicate this success as ASEAN chair. Indonesia has a degree of political clout in ASEAN that some previous chairs have lacked. It is one of the five founding members of ASEAN and is often looked upon as the de facto leader of the association. It is also a major regional power that has exhibited strong economic growth since the waning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The G-20 was Indonesia’s bid to extend its regional power to the international level. This will be important if Jokowi wants to address the many challenges facing the ASEAN region.
It is also unclear whether Indonesia can maintain ASEAN neutrality in the face of growing great power competition between the U.S. and China. The ASEAN members have been increasingly pulled between these competing powers.
According to Indonesia military data between January - June 2023, and presented by Highest Commander (Indonesia Military) Yudo Margono in front of Indonesia Parliamentary (July 11, 2023), at least 11 times U.S. (military airplane, civil airplane) violate Indonesia airspace, the most. India just 2 times. No violation by China.
Awkward, June 21, 2023, or 3 weeks before presentation in front of Indonesia Parliamentary, Highest Commander (Indonesia Military) Yudo Margono in Pentagon to meet General Mark Alexander Milley. Before being appointed to be Highest Commander Indonesia Military, Yudo Margono as Chief Indonesia Navy Chief at the Pentagon, March 30, 2022 to meet Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed interoperability and the deepening of defense ties during the meeting. Indonesia’s foreign minister refused to be drawn into any binding agreement, emphasizing “that Indonesia always takes the position of trying to maintain the best relationships with all nations.” Indonesia’s traditional position of non-alignment in international relations will likely come under increasing pressure as rivals U.S. and China seek regional allies.
If ASEAN wants to remain relevant in 2023 and beyond, member states must work together to find solutions to the problems impacting the region. This includes effectively addressing the Myanmar humanitarian crisis, coordinating post-COVID-19 economic recovery, agreeing on a Code of Conduct for the South China Sea, and tackling climate change. ASEAN’s poor track record at responding to these challenges undermines its claim to centrality in the Indo-Pacific. This provides an opening for external partnerships such as the Quad or the AUKUS trilateral alliance, which have bypassed ASEAN altogether in their attempt to enhance regional security. The task for Indonesia as ASEAN chair will be to overcome the divisions within ASEAN to solidify the bloc’s role as a credible regional actor.
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-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed. Now figure out, or, prevent catastrophic situations in the Indonesian administration from outside the government. After his mom was nearly killed by a syndicate, now I do it (catch all these blunders, especially blunders by an asshole syndicates) for free. Writer actually facing 12 years attack-simultaneously (physically terror, cyberattack terror) by his (ex) friend in IR UGM / HI UGM (all of them actually indebted to me, at least get a very cheap book). 2 times, my mom nearly got assassinated by my friend with “komplotan” / weird syndicate. Once assassin, forever is assassin, that I was facing in years. I push myself to be (keep) dovish, pacifist, and you can read my pacifist tone in every note I write. A framing that myself propagated for years.
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