[Breaking]: 24 Years Old Regime of Assad [Almost] Has Fallen, as Rebel Less 10km From Assad's Palace

Too quickly since / in the last 11 days. This hour [may] final phase of encircling the capital, Damascus as Syrian regime withdraws from Damascus countryside that most of the opposition fighters now entering Damascus’ suburbs have been backed by Russia since 2018. Another totally predictable erosion of post-“reconciliation” structures. Bashar al-Assad (born 11 September 1965) has been the 19th and current president of Syria since July 17th, 2000. He is also the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Armed Forces and the secretary-general of the Central Command of the Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party. He is a son of Hafez al-Assad, who was the 18th president of Syria from 1971 until his death on June 10th, 2000.

Over the past week, the future of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has been placed squarely into question.

A coalition of armed opposition factions has gone on the offensive in northern Syria, capturing some 250 cities, towns, and villages and more than doubling the territory under its control. Syria’s second-largest city of Aleppo was captured in 24 hours, as Syrian regime front lines collapsed one after the other. After nearly five years of territorial lines of control being frozen across the country, these are dramatic, game-changing developments.

Imāla (also imālah; Arabic: إمالة, lit. 'inclination') Syrian Arabic translation of IF I MUST DIE by Refaat Alareer. Today is 1-year Refaat killed by Israel, horror airstrike hit Refaat’s home in Shuja'iyya Gaza, when Refaat’s home to be shelter for at least 30 displaced Gazans.

Yet they should not entirely be a surprise. Not only had Assad never truly “won” his country’s civil war, but his rule has also been weakening for some time. His position is more vulnerable than ever before.

For years, conventional wisdom on Syria had held that the crisis there was frozen, with hostilities a thing of the past and Assad’s regime the inevitable victor. With that, international attention waned, Syria-focused diplomacy all but ended, and governments gradually divested resources away from policy aimed at Syria and onto other global challenges. Meanwhile, as conditions in Syria festered, Arab governments took the step to collectively reengage Assad beginning in 2023, effectively normalizing his status across the Middle East.

For policymakers in the United States, the fact that regional actors appeared to be taking charge of the Syria file was an encouraging sign and a source of relief. More recently, driven by their opposition to the European Union’s policy of isolating Assad and belief in his consolidated victory, a group of 10 European states, led by Italy, have joined forces as they seek to reengage Assad’s regime and explore avenues for diplomacy and refugee returns to Syria.

In [emergency] Doha summit, remarks by Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan about working with Damascus to “liberate” Syria’s oil fields has rekindled interest in the country’s hydrocarbon resources in the north-east.

These lucrative fields are currently controlled by Kurdish groups operating under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) banner.

The SDF, backed by the United States, includes Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey says these are the Syrian offshoot of the armed Kurdish group PKK, which Ankara, Brussels, and Washington have designated a terrorist organisation.

In operations from 2016-2020, Turkish forces entered and held Syrian territory in the north, to establish what Ankara sees as a security buffer from Kurdish groups in Syria. Fidan now wants to help Syria return the SDF’s oil fields “to the Syrian people”.

Syria’s economy has been in shambles for years. When a cease-fire agreed to by Turkey and Russia—which back opposing sides—froze conflict lines in early 2020, $1 was worth approximately 1,150 Syrian pounds. As the opposition offensive began a week ago, it was worth 14,750 Syrian pounds. On December 4, after a week of renewed hostilities, it was 17,500.

Rather than stabilizing the country and offering Syria’s civilians some respite after more than a decade of war, Syria’s humanitarian crisis has spiraled since the agreement was reached in 2020, with the United Nations reporting that at least 90 percent of Syrians now live under the poverty line. While the regime’s embrace of organized crime brings in at least $2.4 billion in profit each year from the sale of just one type of synthetic stimulant, none of that has helped the Syrian people. In fact, state subsidies on fuel and food have been cut drastically in recent years.

But Assad no longer has anybody to rescue him from state bankruptcy. Russia’s economy has been hit hard by the effects of its war in Ukraine, and Iran’s economy is in poor shape, too.

It did not necessarily have to be this way. If Assad had constructively engaged with the regional governments that normalized their ties with Syria in 2023, and if he had embraced Turkey’s openness to normalization earlier this year, Syria would be in a markedly different place today.

With the nation’s humanitarian crisis worse than ever before, and the world’s will and ability to assist lower than ever, the Syrian people have been suffering. Realizing that there is no light at the end of the tunnel, Syrians started taking back to the streets and calling for Assad’s downfall.