Donbas at Stake

As of now [August 18th, 2025, 4pm Washington DC] Russia already controls roughly one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory, including Crimea—approximately 44,600 square miles.

The Russians were eagerly waiting for Trump’s presidency to hand them the parts of Ukraine they couldn’t seize after three years of fierce fighting. Now Trump wants to give Putin the whole Donbas — a region that would take Russia years to conquer by conventional means.

Vladimir Putin still wants the whole of Ukraine's Donbas region in exchange for freezing the frontlines elsewhere, according to reports of Donald Trump's conversation with President Zelenskyy and European leaders. And the White House seems to have dropped the idea of a ceasefire while negotiations are taking place - a key Kremlin demand which has left Ukrainians flummoxed. Putin's proposal, which Trump appears to endorse -- to trade the Donbas for a freeze in fighting -- looks like a “poison pill” to weaken Ukraine internally or get Trump to walk away from Zelensky if he refuses.

Putin wants the Donbas region to end the war. Russia already occupies 75% of it. To achieve peace, Ukraine would have to cede Donbas and Crimea to Russia. These areas have long been under Russian control and are a small price to pay for peace. Of course Zelenskyy refuses because war is his only grip on power and to hide his corruption. In Donbas, Russian is spoken more widely than Ukrainian. The Russian language has historically been a prominent language in the Donbas. The people that live there are mostly Russian.

Four potential map scenarios for ending the war in Ukraine:

1. European preference: Freeze the war at the current front lines (~680 miles), with no more land changing hands.

2. Putin’s price: Ukraine gives up the entire Donbas (Donetsk + Luhansk), losing key defensive positions.

3. Concessions from Kyiv: Ukraine cedes all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, even areas Russia does not fully control yet.

4. Land swap: Russia gets all of Donbas, Ukraine gets back part of Kherson, but this is unlikely as Kherson is vital to Russia’s Crimea link.

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