End of [long-term peace] New Middle East

Israeli destruction of Gaza is all too real. 200 Palestinian killed in last 8 hours, 1,800 Palestinians killed in last 155 hours. And all peace initiative across Middle East blew up.

DC and NYC 12.05pm / Jerusalem - Gaza Strip - Tel Aviv 6.05pm [155 hours of war, still continue] BREAKING NEWS live update trilingual [hebrew - arabic - english] click here

Israeli billionaire Eyal Weldman angry at incompetence and blood bath by Israeli PM Netanyahu. Buried [today] his daughter-24-years old Danielle and her boyfriend Noam Shai, Eyal in a shaken voice ‘She’d be mortified because you cannot cure a killed human with more dead human, killed babies with more dead babies. All the conditions are there for mass atrocities that we have not seen before in Gaza. The rate of killing now is just crazy. In the last 15 hours, at least 200 Palestinian killed, 1,800 Palestinians killed in the last 155 hours. There is no excuse for Hamas massacring civilians in the Gaza Strip envelope. War crimes are war crimes. But I’m not going to turn a blind eye to the wiping of entire families in Gaza by Israeli airstrikes.

Palestinians will not agree to give up lands currently occupied by Israel permanently in exchange for solid peace in the middle east, after being slaughtered in the [fresh, new brutality by Israel] last 6 days, and after countless massacres or slaughtered by Israel in the last 75 years since Nakba 1948. In the leaflet that the Israeli military dropped a short while ago over Gaza City, there is a reference to a humanitarian aid area in the far south adjacent to the Egyptian border. It seems that those in Tel Aviv see what is happening as a historic opportunity for Nakba plans. 

Even Vladimir Putin said [cynicism] the siege of Gaza is like the siege of Leningrad by the Nazis. The audacity of Putin who trampled upon the dead bodies of Syrians and Ukrainians for the past decade. Zelenskyy spoke to NATO allies in Brussels today, as the alliance struggle to support both Israel and Ukraine at the same time. GOP’s politicians feel jealous that too much taxpayer money goes to Kyiv when more and more Ukrainian enjoy the party on abroad.

Years after Nvidia closed its US$7 billion acquisition of Mellanox, the former CEO Eyal Weldman, like other Israeli businessman, targeted the gig economy, gig art-performance opportunities activity for the future of his new business and long-term Israeli business eyeing longterm peace especially with Saudi and potential Israel to be hub of tech and tourism in the middle east.

Israel feels guaranteed for long-term peace after the Abraham Accord under initiative by former President Trump. Until the massacre happened last Saturday. His daughter was killed in a gig music massacre last Saturday. Saudi-Israel deal is in tatters.

So far, only Saudi - Iran peace deal, backed by China, mediate long-term patience since 2021, declares last March, still solid.

Trump's Netanyahu diss becoming major 2024 lightning rod as rivals blast comments on 'smart' terror group. Although Netanyahu said ‘Donald Trump is the best friend Israel ever had. Let me name every street and hillock in the country after him.,’ Trump uncomfortable Netanyahu repeatedly praising Biden about commitment from the US government. Every US President has hated Netanyahu, regarding him as a conniving fanatic. But only Trump said out loud what Obama was overheard saying on a hot mic and Clinton said in private. Trump also called Israel’s genocidal Defense Minister Yoav Gallant a “jerk.” Trump has also asked multiple longtime advisers if he should now publicly call for Netanyahu to step down as prime minister", calling Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah "very smart," praising Chinese President Xi Jinping.

If you think only Trump, and also Eyad Weldman angry to Netanyahu, you’re wrong.

Natural gas prices went from 39 Euro per MwH 8 days ago, to 53-55 Euro, just weeks before harsh winter. Saudi oil shipments into the US plunged to just 67,000 barrels, the 3rd lowest weekly level in 25 years. The drop comes as Riyadh cuts oil production. Oil price up 4% on minimal news. Perspective from a seasoned oil trader: "Reminds me of the previous gulf wars. Lots of Friday rallies due to fear of weekend events."

In case you were wondering why the United States has failed to get the global south's support on Ukraine, it is precisely about moments like this when the US makes clear war crimes are totally acceptable if done by their friends and that international law doesn't matter. If you think last week was horrific and violent, what is about to happen in Gaza and then what will follow in the region and beyond will make us think of that as peaceful in comparison. The failure of American leaders to see and stop this immediately is a catastrophic mistake.

Pro-Palestine rallies have been held across the world to protest the Israeli bombardment of Gaza. Massive support to Palestine in a lot of Western countries can’t stop although several countries ban public support for Palestine. You can see in every university in the United States, not only Harvard, about uprising support for Palestine. Also in London, Paris, Berlin, etc.

Following the Israeli airstrikes on Gaza in the wake of the deadly surprise attack launched by Hamas on Saturday, large pro-Palestine demonstration in Amman, Jordan where reportedly chants to back Hamas were shouted. Another crowd waving the Palestinian flag at a rally in Tsahrir Square in the center of Baghdad, biggest ever since 2003, weeks before the Iraq war when US and allies invaded Iraq. Former President Bush, architect Iraq war 2003, warns of "ugly" war and temptation to buckle or seek peace. "My view is: One side is guilty. And it's not Israel."

Bush was president during the Lebanon - Israel war 2006 and Gaza war in late 2008, which included an Israeli ground invasion that led to thousands of Palestinian casualties. Bush endorsed Israel Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's disengagement from Gaza in 2005 as a positive step toward peace. Bush also supported the 2006 Palestinian elections, which Hamas won before seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 — setting the conditions for many of the conflict's current dynamics.

Maybe if history can flashback, if Hamas not surprisingly infiltrates Israel [and weeks, repeated, Egypt intel giving a shared intelligence about potential massive attack, but ignored directly by Netanyahu], Saudi - Israel normalization deal will be signed in November or even this month. All now burst up to the air.

President of Turkiye / Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan angry about FM Blinken comment, says that he [Blinken] approaches Israel not as a Foreign Minister of the United States but as a Jewish. Erdogan continued ‘What kind of approach is this? Then if someone says I’m approaching the region as a Muslim, what will you say? You should approach everyone as a human.’ A sermon today from the Grand Mosque in Mecca prays for “liberation of Al-Aqsa Mosque” in Jerusalem “Oh God, liberate Masjid Al Aqsa and support our brothers in Palestine and be with them a helper, supporter and a guardian.”

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been frustrated in his efforts to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine war. But after Hamas’ shock massacre in Israel, he’s looking for another chance to play the peacemaker. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan maybe will get a Nobel Peace Prize if several talks between Russia - Ukraine since March 30 - April 2, 2022 end with cease fire immediately. Sadly, investigation by Der Spiegel about heinous brutality in Bucha [published April 2nd, 2022] made very uncomfortable talks mood, and peace commitment burst on air, until today, nearly 600 Days of War.

Iran, Syria, Yemen [OF COURSE MUSLIM COUNTRIES] fighters already geared up to potential bigger war, to help Palestine. No, Taliban Afghanistan is too busy because earthquake victims in Herat already 3,000 and maybe rocketed. Israel tells the UNITED NATIONS to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip within 24 hours. The Israeli army is ready for a ground operation in Gaza and is awaiting political approval after former PM Yair Lapid refuses to join the emergency government under Netanyahu: "We will remove the extremist elements from the government and join forces for a sane government, what happened on Saturday - a failure for which there is no atonement."

From meeting with 70 U.S. Democrat Congressmen: full support for Israel on brutality and potential ground operation in Gaza, no support for change in West Bank status quo. I wonder if this also means: no change in Palestinian Authority/Fatah. They condemn settler violence in the West Bank. Many settlers have US citizenship and the US government could take a greater role in condemning their actions since the Israeli government clearly won’t. Probably a radioactive issue since the US will never prosecute dual citizens for crimes in Israel, including Netanyahu.

Hamas’ surprising attack on Israel on Oct. 7, followed by Israel’s ongoing and disproportionate military operation in Gaza, has the potential to become a pivotal moment in Middle Eastern history. Predicting the extent of Israel’s incursion into Gaza remains uncertain, and Hamas faces immense challenges in maintaining its resistance.

It cannot be overstated how big an impact Hamas has had on Israeli politics. They destroyed Likud’s popularity, got Ben Gvir out through (it must be said) anti-democratic emergency measures, and forced reconciliation between Gantz and Bibi which will finally end Bibi’s career.

The Likud of PM Netanyahu nosedives from 28 seats last week to just 19 today following Hamas’ attacks on Saturday. This would be Likud’s worst election result since 2006 National Unity of Gantz (which just joined a govt of national unity) surges from 29 seats last week to 41.  If Hamas had only killed/taken hostage soldiers, this would also have strengthened the leftist anti-enlistment, Hasidic Jewish anti-enlistment, and fanatic settler vigilante violence arguments within Israeli politics. Ironically this would have solidified Netanyahu’s coalition. The political crisis in Israel 1 week ago: Bibi needed Hasidic and settler coalition to keep him out of jail for corruption. Gantz/Lapid refused to join coalition with Likud /Ben Gvir/Smotrich. Through emergency cabinet Gantz could join Bibi temporarily and force other two out. 

Another unexpected effect of Hamas on Israeli society: the secular hawks using issue to shame ultraorthodox over Shabbat closures of public transport and Israeli flights. The controlling stakeholder in El Al since 2020 is an Orthodox Jew from US who doesn’t want Saturday flights. This has now become a major issue for Israelis and reservists abroad because all other national airlines have suspended flights in and out of Israel. Israeli pilots, entrepreneurs, reservists, etc. are all criticizing Eli Rozenberg for “not understanding the emergency.”

Moreover, Israel is grappling with the repercussions of this sudden assault. The emerging landscape appears likely to push Israel toward a new security doctrine and a more radical stance on the Palestinian issue compared to the past. Inevitably, the involvement of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria in this conflict appears imminent, causing concern in the United States. The unbridled support of the U.S. for Israel further exacerbates the situation and necessitates a reassessment of the ongoing regional dynamics. Consequently, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the "New Middle East," which was once framed in terms of regional normalization, to take shape.

The outbreak of the Arab Spring brought discussions of a New Middle East to the forefront, as it empowered democratic forces and dismantled entrenched authoritarian regimes. While some termed this transformation as the “normalization of history,” others coined it the “New Middle East.” However, the phase marked by democratization and normalization was fleeting. The deepening of the Syrian civil war, the military coup in Egypt, the setbacks faced by Libyan revolutionaries, the enduring conflict in Yemen, and the rise of groups like Daesh diverted the course of the New Middle East away from democratic aspirations. As a result, democracy and stability became opposing forces, sidelining the root causes of regional issues and masking new challenges stemming from the Arab Spring.

Remarkably, the defeat of Daesh was misinterpreted by both international and regional actors. Its defeat in Syria and Iraq, seen as the darkest consequence of the Arab Spring, was assumed sufficient to construct a new regional order. In reality, no actual problems were resolved. Arab states normalized relations with the Assad regime in Syria without addressing the ongoing Syrian crisis. Gulf normalization occurred without resolving the Yemeni conflict, and most significantly, Arab-Israeli normalization commenced without addressing the Palestinian issue. Thus, the New Middle East dialogue was reignited through normalization initiatives, failing to bridge the gap between persistent problems and the normalization process. The core issue was that normalization did not reach the grassroots and neglected the genuine problems.

The contemporary New Middle East, currently under discussion, diverges significantly from the vision during the Arab Spring. The initial debate revolved around democracy and changing the status quo, whereas the current focus is on stability and preserving the existing order. In the former, non-state actors moved from the periphery to the center of discussions. In the latter, central actors reasserted their positions, emphasizing regional stability. In the former, the economy played a secondary role, while in the latter, the economy took center stage. This shift marginalized traditional fault lines and emphasized geo-economic dynamics as the key to establishing a new regional order.

Consequently, after 2020, three distinct political paths emerged: Arab-Israeli normalization (the Abraham Accords), Türkiye’s normalization with regional countries (UAE, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt), and Arab-Iranian normalization, all contributing to the transition from a chaotic regional atmosphere to a more decisive era of normalization processes.

Hamas’ unexpected assault on Israel and Israel’s ongoing military operations have the potential to derail this progress, potentially marking the end of the so-called new era in the Middle East. The future of this situation largely hinges on Israel’s upcoming actions, the fate of Hamas, and the scope of the conflict’s expansion.

Israel’s current military approach indicates a comprehensive ground operation against Gaza, aiming for the complete destruction of Hamas. This strategy seeks to confine Gaza’s civilians to specific areas while Israel takes control of demilitarized zones, thereby weakening Hamas’s influence permanently. It may also involve transferring control of Gaza to Abbas’s authority. The pro-war camp in Israel rhetorically equates Hamas with Daesh, mirroring the military strategies employed in counter-Daesh operations in Iraq and Syria, potentially leading to a dehumanizing approach toward Gaza similar to operations in Raqqa and Mosul. At present, international support offers Israel a significant advantage.

However, Israel’s ground operation faces numerous challenges. It’s important to remember the examples from the Ukrainian and Syrian wars, which demonstrate how non-state armed groups have improved their capabilities in asymmetric conflicts, presenting challenges for regular army units. Given Hamas’s growing strength, its experience in urban warfare, the high population density in Gaza, widespread popular support for Hamas, the urban landscape, and underground tunnels in Gaza, it is doubtful that Israel’s ground operation will entirely eliminate Hamas.

Additionally, the mobilization of Hezbollah along the Lebanese and Syrian borders could compel Israel to shift its forces northward, possibly expanding the conflict on multiple fronts. If U.S. support for Israel escalates to the point of intervention by third parties, it could lead to a regional crisis. The growing relevance of Iran in the Biden administration’s policies further adds to the complexity.

The goals behind Hamas’ Oct. 7 operation remain somewhat unclear. The stated objectives appear to be ending Israeli raids on Gaza, halting attacks on the Al-Aqsa Mosque, and securing the release of Palestinians from Israeli prisons. However, if this operation, referred to as the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” is driven by strategic rather than tactical considerations, it implies that the situation extends beyond the immediate Palestinian issue. If this is the case, it could disrupt the normalization processes in the Middle East. One immediate consequence could be the suspension of Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization, despite efforts by the Biden administration to foster their rapprochement. The normalization efforts between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco might also be adversely affected, and the already strained normalization between Türkiye and Israel could face further challenges. If Türkiye succeeds in negotiating the release of hostages and de-escalates the conflict, the situation could improve. Conversely, if these efforts fail and Israel’s occupation of Gaza intensifies, Ankara and Tel Aviv may need to reconsider their ongoing diplomatic process.

Ultimately, the events of Oct. 7 may temporarily close the door to the New Middle East, and its reopening may depend on the path Israel chooses regarding the Palestinian issue and the overall geopolitical landscape.

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