Estranged bull smell flaw in the Death Star

Indonesians have confidence in many world leaders unelected/authoritarian. Unlike many in the West, Indonesians do not see rest of the world black & white terms. Sadly, also confidence local dynasty

Jakarta 1.11pm

The increasingly estranged relationship between President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) especially Megawati, daughter of Soekarno, the largest party in his coalition government and the chairman of party, in the run up to the February general election will likely undermine the way he governs the country for the remaining 11 months of his term. 

An Indonesian presidential contender is facing a growing backlash over his decision to choose President Joko Widodo’s son as his running mate, with the [two] latest opinion poll showing him slipping to second place but on another [awkwardly] rocketed and cementing six months of being the top voter choice.

Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, together with the current president’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, scored 34.7 per cent, trailing the former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo and his running mate at 36.8 per cent, according to a survey by polling firm Charta Politika published on Monday, Nov 6, 2023.

The opinion poll was carried out from Oct 26 to 31.

Another poll but good for Prabowo. Indikator Politik Indonesia survey, released on Sunday, November 12, 2023, and conducted from Oct. 27 to Nov. 1, found that Prabowo had a 12.8 percentage point lead over Ganjar compared with the previous survey in mid-October when Prabowo and his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka had yet to register their candidacies. Prabowo’s personal electability rating grew by 3.6 percentage points from 37 percent in mid-October to 40.6 percent in late October, while Ganjar of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) nosedived from 34.8 to 27.8 percent. Former Jakarta governor Anies now trails Ganjar, albeit with his popularity rising slightly from 22.3 to 23.7 percent.

The fluctuation, in 1 poll show ‘good’, other hand show ‘bad’ in other poll suggests Indonesian voters are actually becoming uncomfortable with what is widely seen as attempts by Mr Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, to push his son into a key political race and establish a political dynasty.

If we assume that Prabowo may ended up with [peak] 41-44 percent, at least 2 issues. First, Indonesia Election will be 2-round because no one reaches 50+1. Second, with still very high approval for Jokowi. still around 70-80 percent with newest poll on October but his son [pairing with Prabowo] just get 41-44 percent means PDI-P and every opponent will be exploiting ‘flaw in the Death Star’, flaw about Jokowi’s popularity and in other side electability of Prabowo and Jokowi’s son Gibran.

It could also act as a wake-up call for Mr Prabowo, who is making his third attempt for the presidency in elections due Feb 14.

Close to 60 per cent of the respondents in Charta Politika’s survey disagreed on the need for a political dynasty in South-east Asia’s largest economy. Although by CSIS Indonesia [not CSIS Washington DC] Indonesian survey and INDIKATOR POLITIK INDONESIA seems says ok for political dynasty [52.6 percent].

52.6 percent says ok with Political Dynasty

Nearly half of them [Charta Politika], 49.9 percent did not support Mr Gibran’s vice-presidential bid as the 36-year-old mayor from a city in Java is considered to be too young and seen to lack experience.

Dynasties are a common feature in Indonesian politics since independence in 1945, with many families from political, business and military backgrounds holding government positions. Indonesians have confidence in many world leaders who are unelected/authoritarian. Unlike many in the West, Indonesians do not see the rest of the world in black & white terms.

Mr Widodo was the first Indonesian president not to have come from elite circles, and he successfully ran on an anti-corruption platform. But now, his two sons and a son-in-law are involved in politics.

Critics contend that Mr Widodo is playing a role in influencing elections, given he cannot run for president after two terms under the Constitution.

Though he has not openly voiced support for any of the presidential candidates, analysts say he is trying to wield influence after he steps down and ensure his preferred successor continue his policies, including the construction of a new capital city in Borneo.

Mr Prabowo, who was once married to military dictator Suharto’s daughter, is from an elite family. His grandfather was the founder of Indonesia’s central bank and his father was a minister under Indonesia’s first president Sukarno, and later on, Mr Suharto.

On the back of building disgruntlement against Mr Widodo’s political dynasty, the Constitutional Court’s ethics panel on Tuesday recommended dismissing Chief Justice Anwar Usman, who is Mr Widodo’s brother-in-law, for failing to recuse himself from a case that benefited his nephew.

Mr Anwar has denied conflict of interest allegations.

The panel was formed following a public outcry to probe the conduct of judges, including Mr Anwar, after they lowered the minimum age for candidates vying for president and vice-president, allowing the 36-year-old Mr Gibran to join forces with Mr Prabowo. The court’s decision on the election rule is final and binding.

It is now up to Mr Widodo to decide on the panel’s recommendation. Under the Constitution, only the president has the power to dismiss a chief justice.

PDI-P matron Megawati Soekarnoputri has refrained from making public comments about her deteriorating relationship with Jokowi, but her feelings are clearly reflected by high-ranking party officials who have expressed anger at being betrayed and abandoned by the man who won both presidential elections in 2014 and 2019 on the party’s ticket. But as a reflection of how Jokowi holds sway over Megawati in this broken partnership, the criticisms from party members have been targeted at his clan members, rather than directly at him. Jokowi maneuvered to get his eldest son 36-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka to run as running mate to presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, defense minister and chair of the Gerindra Party, which is also a member of the coalition government.

 This puts Jokowi in the coming presidential elections at odds with the PDI-P, which has nominated former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo for president. Jokowi and Gibran are both card-carrying members of the PDI-P. Amid growing demands from angry members for the PDI-P leadership to expel him, Gibran returned his PDI-P card last week and quickly joined the Golkar Party, which also supports Prabowo’s nomination.

PDI-P members have also demanded Jokowi’s son-in-law, Bobby Nasution, who is mayor of the North Sumatra city of Medan, return his membership card after he openly declared his support for Prabowo.

So far, no one has openly called for Jokowi’s expulsion. He has not publicly declared who he will support in the election but it is clear that he is drifting away from the PDI-P. His youngest son 28-year-old Kaesang Pangarep last month maneuvered to get the chairmanship of the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) only two days after joining. The PSI, which sees itself as the party of millennials, has also endorsed the Prabowo-Gibran ticket.

As reward for giving Jokowi the presidential ticket in the last two elections, Megawati has some power and influence in the government, including in the appointment of strategic cabinet and non-cabinet posts. Megawati also chairs the steering committees of the Agency for the Implementation of Pancasila Ideology and National Research and Innovation Agency.

Despite its anger and the increasingly uneasy relationship with the President, the PDI-P vows to stay in the coalition government. “We have no intention of recalling our members from the cabinet,” party secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto told journalists. But this is the party’s call as much as Jokowi’s. The PDI-P has five ministers:  Yasonna Laoly (Justice and Human Rights), Tri Rismaharini (Social Services), Azwar Anas (Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform), I Gusti Ayu Bintang Darmawati (Women Empowerment and Children Protection) and Pramono Anung (Cabinet Secretary). But as the rivalry between Jokowi and Megawati intensifies, these ministers will face the issue of split loyalties between serving the President and the party.

Jokowi may also face hurdles in the House of Representatives that could affect his legislative agenda. His coalition government controls 82 percent, or 471 of the 575 House seats, that has virtually guaranteed easy passage for every legislative bill he sent.

What’s more With the presidential nomination process finalized into three pairs of candidates and each endorsed by an alliance of political parties, this will lead to a realignment of the different factions in the House along the lines of their positions in the presidential election. Jokowi can no longer take for granted the support from all the seven parties in his current coalition government.

If the rivalry between Megawati and Jokowi intensifies, the PDI-P could soon become the leading opposition party in the House. How much control Jokowi still enjoys in the House will be put to the test this week as the legislature begins the screening of Gen. Agus Subiyanto, his nominee for the chief of the Indonesian Military (TNI). Masinton Pasaribu, a senior PDI-P House member, has also proposed launching a House inquiry into the President’s role in the way that the Constitutional Court changed the rule on the minimum age to run for presidential office, which allowed Gibran to run in February.

The court created an exception to the minimum 40-year-old rule for presidential candidates who have served as regional heads. Gibran is mayor of the Central Java town of Surakarta. It is not clear if Masinton is going ahead with the plan. The ethics council of the Constitutional Court this week found six justices, including the chief justice, guilty of breaches of ethics in issuing the regulation that changed the electoral law.

The court chief, Anwar Usman, is the husband of Jokowi’s younger sister. Although he was found guilty of the most severe violation, the council only removed him from the chairmanship, and like the other five justices, given verbal reprimands. The ruling allowing the exception to the minimum age stays. Gibran will run. Another senior PDI-P politician Adian Napitupulu said relations between Jokowi and Megawati began to sour when the party chair turned down the President’s request to support the plan to amend the Constitution that would allow him to run for a third term. He did not say when, but there were open campaigns throughout 2022 for Jokowi to serve a third term conducted by his supporters.

But this claim was quickly refuted by House Speaker Puan Maharani, who is the daughter of Megawati and ranking member of the PDI-P. For now, it appears that both Megawati and Jokowi will try to paper over their differences and that they remain on good terms.

But this will become more difficult to maintain as we get closer to the general election and their rivalry intensifies. Ganjar and Prabowo are the two frontrunners in the presidential election. What we’ve heard Several Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politicians have proposed a House’s inquiry into alleged flaws in the Constitutional Court's decision on the age limit for presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

Politicians who are aware of the plan said, however, the PDI-P top brass has anticipated a dim prospect of the political move. The party would have to gather support from other political parties in the House to make sure the inquiry materializes, which may be difficult to obtain. "The majority of the parties are now supporters of Prabowo Subianto," one of the politicians said. This source said the only possible support may come from the United Development Party (PPP). Meanwhile, other parties that nominate Anies Baswedan are unlikely to throw their weight behind the inquiry plan. Therefore, instead of pushing for the inquiry, the PDI-P will focus on mass mobilization and effective campaigning to beat the duo of Prabowo and Gibran.