Jokowi Losing Coattail Effect, Bad News for Prabowo, and PDI-P Move On [Also Wrath]

Only running candidate to abstain from mentioning IKN new capital city NUSANTARA development in vision-mission campaign is Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar. This haunted Jokowi.

Amman Jordan 7.51am / Jakarta 11.51am

The only running candidate to abstain from mentioning IKN NEW CAPITAL CITY ‘NUSANTARA’ development in their published vision-mission campaign is Anies Rasyid Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, differing from the two candidates, Ganjar Pranowo - Mahfud MD, and Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo - Gibran Rakabuming Raka who mentioned IKN development explicitly. Anies, currently only 13-15 percent on every survey [since last April, even still 13-15 percent after some survey simulating with Muhaimin] doesn’t care to win election, in my opinion. Anies just giving ‘little push’ to Jokowi, and unsurprisingly, Jokowi goes mad, and destroying his legacy. Anies just want to destroying Jokowi image forever, doesn’t want to win election because already know his chance too small.

Interesting new poll from SMRC, INDIKATOR, LEMBAGA SURVEI INDONESIA, LINGKAR SURVEI INDONESIA, etc in last 2 weeks on the Indonesia presidential race. Prabowo - Gibran just led 2 or 3 percent ahead Ganjar Pranowo - Mahfud MD, whatever 3 candidates [simulation with Anies - Muhamin] or only 2 candidates [without Anies - Muhaimin]. The dates seem important here. I wonder how the results would look for next survey, if surveying had carried when swung their support to Prabowo - Gibran crippled because ‘bad image’ about political dynasty.

Hours ago, according to INDIKATOR, Prabowo just 37 percent and Ganjar get 34.8 percent but undecided still 5.8 or we can say 6 percent.

And election still 3 months 3 weeks from now, and also, PDI-P, signaled ‘very angry’ because Jokowi and Gibran attitude, will show entire political machine to eclipse Prabowo - Gibran. Again, Prabowo - Gibran just led 2-3 percent in several survey.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has given its clearest sign yet that it is ready to contest the 2024 election without the support of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his family, citing disagreements over the latter’s attempt to subvert the Constitution.

Following weeks of protracted speculation of failing ties between Jokowi and the PDI-P – which has served as the President’s political vehicle for decades – party secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto aired the party's grievances in a press statement on Sunday. “We really loved and gave privileges to President Jokowi and his family, but we have been left behind because there were demands [from the President] that have the potential to violate moral principles and the Constitution,” Hasto said.

Don’t mess with PDI-P, that’s Hasto’s wrath actually

I just said, ‘coattail effect’ because Jokowi currently very few to upgrade percent of electability [for Gibran as VP of Prabowo], with, very stark contrast [at least last August 2023] August 2023, from 5 survey poll, satisfied and very satisfied for Jokowi works reach [in range] 80-90 percent in aggregate. This is very huge, because former President SBY, in year 9, just get [satisfied percentage] 30-35 percent. Jokowi approval rating is the highest ever for a sitting president. But Prabowo - Gibran just led 2 or 3 percent.

The announcement of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka as the last presidential candidate pairing to be registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) reveals a cold antagonism between sitting President Joko ‘’Jokowi’’ Widodo and former president and party matron Megawati Soekarnoputri, which could go on long beyond the 2024 elections.

Kompas, Tempo. Jokowi asked Megawati about potential the 3rd term consecutive, but Megawati say no

New capital projects, like IKN NEW CAPITAL CITY ‘Nusantara’, entail a disentangling of executive political power from heterogenous urban populations, accelerating autocratic tendencies. During the transfer of power on Oct. 21 next year, Jokowi will certainly want to make sure his achievements will help his successor bring the republic closer to justice and prosperity for all.

but not justice and prosperity for Palestine. At least care about ‘donation’, about Indonesian Hospital in Gaza. All of them, Younis Tirawi, Plestia Alaqad, and Ramy Abdul, under bombing, less signal, less electricity, try to reporting Indonesian Hospital in Gaza, very worth for Gazans, but no one Indonesian politician care enough.

Jokowi, whose presidency has been characterized by his focus on infrastructure development, social welfare programs and economic growth, maintaining ‘whatever political cost’ to make sure IKN NEW CAPITAL CITY in decades receive full-budget. Jokowi afraid ‘disaster’ HAMBALANG, corruption 700 billion rupiah [around USD52 million] and then until now the HAMBALANG project just like ‘Ghost City.’

Joko Widodo, popularly as Jokowi, was sworn in as Indonesia’s seventh President in 2014, optimism surrounding the state of democracy in the country seemed at its peak. At a time when dynasties traditionally dominated Indonesia’s political arena, the ascension of Jokowi, who was a carpenter and furniture businessman before becoming the governor of Jakarta, was hailed as a beacon of hope. 

If the start of his presidency heralded high hopes for Indonesian democracy, the end of it—marked by a swanky new capital and the paving of the path for Prabowo and ‘whatever political cost’ to make sure his son Gibran to be VP candidate, to potentially rule from it—has mostly dampened any optimism about the direction in which Indonesia’s democracy is headed. But again, Prabowo - Gibran only led 2-3 percent in several survey. Everything can happened on Election, February 14th, 2024 or Valentine 2024.

A construction site at Nusantara, where Indonesia is offering greater tax cuts and looser terms for land acquisitions as it struggles to attract investors to its $33 billion new capital project, in East Kalimantan province, on Mar. 8, 2023.Rony Zakaria—Bloomberg/Getty Images

Jokowi’s election almost 10 years ago represented “the height of democracy in Indonesia,” Vishnu Juwono, associate professor in public governance at the University of Indonesia. “He was seen as an outsider, and he’s benefited from the democracy system.”

But as the curtains fall on Jokowi’s decade of rule, he may be remembered more for ushering in a new era of democratic decline. Even his capstone initiative, what was meant to be a sprawling monument to his legacy—the development of a new capital called Nusantara, to replace the existing capital in Jakarta beginning as soon as next year—looks to embody such a backsliding.

Indonesia's President Joko Widodo speaks about the planned new capital Nusantara, at Ecosperity Week in Singapore on June 7, 2023. Edgar Su—Reuters

Since it was announced in 2019, the ambitious project to relocate Indonesia’s capital from the island of Java to the island of Borneo has been mired in skepticism and criticism—from inadequate public consultation to land disputes with indigenous communities to concerns about Chinese investment that critics say is making Nusantara a “New Beijing.” But a more insidious implication, observers caution, is the undemocratic nature that the new capital, tucked hundreds of miles away from Jakarta and set to operate without elected local leaders, will bring to the fore of what is currently the world’s third largest democracy.

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While Indonesia’s current capital, which houses 10.5 million of the country’s 278 million people, may be the epicenter of the Southeast Asian nation’s economic activity, over the decades it has become increasingly uninhabitable. Jakarta residents regularly battle heavy traffic congestion, widespread flooding, and hazardous pollution—the metropolis was earlier this year ranked as the world’s most polluted city when thick smog shrouded its residents. The city is also sinking at an alarming rate, with some forecasters estimating that a third of its land could be submerged by 2050.

Yusuf Wibisono, an economist and director of the Institute for Demographic and Poverty Studies (IDEAS) claimed that the Nusantara State Capital (IKN) is President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's most problematic inheritance. This notion started way before the development of this giant project began.

"This will heavily burden whoever is elected as the next president," Yusuf said when called on Monday, October 30, 2023. Currently, three registered candidates are running for presidency in the upcoming general elections; Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD, and Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

According to Yusuf, IKN's biggest issue is the way this project was planned and executed. This idea of new capital was brought by Jokowi in 2019 without any public consultation. In addition, after the declaration of its status as the government's main project, IKN was immediately marketed to investors.

At the beginning of 2020, the Coordinating Minister of Maritime and Investment Affairs Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan even claimed that the Japan-based company Softbank would invest US$100 billion in IKN. Alas, this plan fell through in 2022 when the company withdrew from the project. "Disregarding the polarized public opinion on this highly important program," Yusuf said.

The government was also too hasty in submitting the State Capital Bill at the end of 2021 to the House of Representatives. The preparation seemed rushed and perfunctory, despite the status of this megaproject that will affect Indonesia economically, socially, and politically. Moving a State Capital requires a long time and an enormous amount of budget.

"They should have discussed the issue deeply and carefully, [instead] in just 43 days, the State Capital Law was issued in January 2022," he said. "And after a year, in October 2023, the law is revised, not to accommodate public aspirations, but to appease investors."

The cherry on top of this already not-quite democratic project, Yusuf said, is the local government of IKN, the IKN Authority, which will not be democratically elected but is appointed by the president.

"The irony of calling it the state capital," Yusuf said.

According to Yusuf, as one world's biggest democratic states, Indonesia has a long-held tradition of facilitating public aspirations, with Jakarta at its center. Jakarta is the center of public aspirations articulation, a witness of several historical democratic events such as the information. 

"The residents of IKN are way below Jakarta and surrounding areas in terms of quality and quantity. Thus, they won't be able to represent Indonesian citizens as a whole," he added.

The capture of state power and resources by a narrow group of elites and families, spanning decades is of course a particular kind of political order. Calling for it not to be 'politicised' is to say it should be considered a natural order. Prabowo Subianto, a presidential candidate backed by the Onward Indonesia Coalition, responded to critics who accused him of solidifying Jokowi’s political dynasty after naming the President's eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate in the upcoming presidential election.

He argued that a political dynasty is something normal. “This is for national education that political dynasty is normal,” he said after attending the Indonesian Solidarity Party's (PSI) declaration of support for the 2024 presidential election at the Djakarta Theater, Central Jakarta on Tuesday, October 24, 2023.

The accusation came after he and the coalition selected Solo Mayor Gibran, who is now eligible to run in the presidential election following the controversial ruling issued by the Constitutional Court on the requirements for presidential and vice presidential candidates. Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo, a presidential candidate backed by the Onward Indonesia Coalition, responded to critics who accused him of solidifying Jokowi’s political dynasty after naming the President's eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, as his running mate in the upcoming presidential election.

“We belong to a dynasty where our family always fights for the people. What's wrong with that? Don't politicize it,” Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo said.

He argued that a political dynasty is something normal. “This is for national education that political dynasty is normal,” he said after attending the Indonesian Solidarity Party's (PSI) declaration of support for the 2024 presidential election at the Djakarta Theater, Central Jakarta on Tuesday, October 24, 2023.

The accusation came after he and the coalition selected Solo Mayor Gibran, who is now eligible to run in the presidential election following the controversial ruling issued by the Constitutional Court on the requirements for presidential and vice presidential candidates.

As for IKN NEW CAPITAL CITY ‘Nusantara’—where 16,000 Indonesian civil servants, members of the military, and police officers are due to move in next year and there are plans for an eventual population of 1.9 million by 2045—how the new capital city itself is set to be run has already raised concerns among local observers. Unlike the rest of the country, which is governed by elected mayors or governors, Nusantara will be governed by a Capital City Authority helmed by chairpersons appointed by the President.

Ecosperity Week attendees view a presentation on Indonesia’s planned capital Nusantara, in Singapore on June 7, 2023.Edgar Su—Reuters

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