Momentum Son of President

in Indonesia and English

UPDATE MONDAY OCT 16TH, 1.12pm Jakarta time / 2.12am DC time

The Indonesia Constitutional Court / Mahkamah Konstitusi Republik Indonesia rejected on Monday three petitions that requested the age of candidacy for the presidential election BE LOWERED, much to the RELIEF of critics who feared judicial overreach and a budding political dynasty.

In a 6:2 decision, with Chief Justice Anwar Usman [tie the knot with Idayati, the younger sister of President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo] recusing himself, the court rejected the petitions to lower the age of candidacy from 40 to 35, putting an end to an idea of allowing Surakarta Mayor Gibran Rakabuming Raka - a cadre of Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI Perjuangan) to run for vice president in the 2024 election. While the 36-year-old eldest son of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo had not publicly announced any interest in contesting the race, politicians backing presumptive Gerindra Party nominee Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo had been calling for him to choose Gibran as his running mate.

For Jokowi, the remarriage of his sister [Idayati] is a private matter, but it may raise public concerns because as a sitting president, he could take advantage of the relationship — especially the checks and balances between the executive and judiciary powers — and probably at the expense of the nation. Lawyer and founder Ihza & Ihza Law Firm, Yusril Ihza Mahendra [one of part of coalition for Prabowo to Election 2024] says, with Constitutional Court rejected petitions that requested the age of candidacy for the presidential election be lowered, is proof 'no more political dynasty issue' on Jokowi leadership.

UPDATE MONDAY, 9.12pm Jakarta time / 10.12am DC time

The cost of political parties in Indonesia is very high. Former Golkar party Chief (since December 5th, 2004 - October 9th, 2009), and also (2 times) former VP Indonesia Bapak Dr. Haji Muhammad Jusuf Kalla (to be Chief Political Party 62 years and 6 months old), acclaimed spending 500 billion rupiah (US$35 million) in 2004 for national congress – or adjusted inflation, now around 1.2 trillion rupiah (US$97 million).  The total wealth of Indonesian President Joko Widodo, Kaesang’s father, had increased to 82.36 billion rupiah in 2023 based on the State Administrators Wealth Report (LHKPN), nearly 1/13 of potential cost to be Chief political party in Golkar (1.2 trillion rupiah).

28 years and 9 months old Kaesang Pangarep, youngest son of President Joko Widodo, Erina Gudono husband, 4 hours ago appointed to be the new Chief political party of PSI (Partai Solidaritas Indonesia). 

Complicated calculations, adjust the rocketing of new eligible voters between 2019 to 2024, and potential “golput” (abstaining, boycotting movement), every political party in Indonesia must reach at least 7.8 million votes [4%] in 2024 so it can get to the national parliament. PSI failed in Election 2019, just getting 2,6 million votes (1,89%) in 2019 (failed to pass National Parliament Threshold 4% / around 5,5 million votes).

For comparison, current longest servant-leader political party in Indonesia, Diah Permata Megawati Setiawati Soekarnoputri (January 23rd, 1947), also former President of Indonesia (2001-2004) to be Chief PDI (then renamed PDI-P) when she 46 years and 11 months old (December 6th, 1993). Led PDIP almost 30 years, still counting. PDI-P racked up 27 million voters in Election 2019. Nearly 11x times PSI votes. 

*29 years old Kaesang Pangarep, youngest son of President Joko Widodo, may be appointed to be the new Chief political party. Kaesang born in Solo, Dec 25, 1994.His older brother, Gibran Rakabuming Raka (36 years old), Mayor of Solo City (since February 2021), may be a VP candidate for Indonesia election 2024. Currently, the youngest ever leader in ASEAN is the late Bapak Soekarno (44 years old, 1st ever President of Indonesia, 1945). With failure of Pita Limjaroenrat (พิธา ลิ้มเจริญรัตน์, RTGS: Phitha Limcharoenrat) to be a new PM of Thai and to be youngest ever ASEAN Leader (43 years old, he born September 5th, 1980), maybe in Election 2029 or Election 2034, both Gibran or Kaesang to be youngest ever President or leader in ASEAN. In 2029, Gibran will be 42 years old and Kaesang will be 35 years old. In 2034, Gibran will be 47 years old, and Kaesang will be 40 years old.

Jakarta 8.02pm / DC 9.02am

ENGLISH

The youngest son of President Joko Widodo, Kaesang Pangarep, has officially joined the Solidarity Party of Indonesia, a minor political party, not yet in indonesia parliament (because failed to pass a treshold in election 20190. This move breaks the "tradition" of President Jokowi's family, which has always built their political career from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle.

Kaesang believes that the difference in political choices within his family will not be a problem. But Kaesang, and PSI, maybe losing a momentum to gain new voters. Kaesang wants to be Mayor of Depok, the poorest satellite city in near Jakarta (if compare with Bogor, Bekasi, South Tangerang). Depok was “Christian city” [De Eereste Protestantse Organisatie van Kristenen] in the 17-19 century.

Since 1999 (1 year after former President Soeharto resign) and central government re-create Depok to be a separate city with independent government (no longer with / under Jakarta administration) Depok led by Islamist or political party-based Islam leader. Kaesang’s business (part of his business) facing bankruptcy, in the middle gigantic funding, will be his obstacle (and PSI obstacle) to gain new voters. My former friend created a gigantic trillion loss in 2 startups in Indonesia. Kaesang is also facing the same struggle of startup business in Indonesia, although Kaesang (with Gibran) actually received gigantic funding in years for catering business and other business. In deep investigation-research, [can count] reaches Rp 700 billion for a lot of investors, VCs, for Kaesang and Gibran. [Another] Ironically, startups get accused of being a major factor that ‘conventional business’ collapsed too.

The alarming condition of Tanah Abang Market, Central Jakarta (biggest traditional market in Southeast Asia], is not a new problem. This condition has been going on for at least the last decade, SUFFERED loss because cannot compete with startup. Tanah Abang Market in Central Jakarta is like a neglected stepchild. The market that sells groceries, clothing, food and beverages, as well as textile products, is quiet and dirty. Many stalls are closed or have bills for rent. The condition of empty stalls in Tanah Abang Market concerning. The situation in Block G of Tanah Abang Market, especially on floors 2 and 3, has become increasingly worrying after being left empty for years due to lack of buyers.

*from left to right: Kaesang (youngest son of Jokowi), Muhammad Bobby Afif Nasution (son-in-law Jokowi), Gibran (eldest son of Jokowi), Jokowi. Illustration from Tempo-Kendra Paramita)

After being appointed to be Mayor of Solo in February 2021, we can assume that Gibran giving a bigger control to Kaesang to run - handle a lot of business between them. So, the problem of bankruptcy will be burden for Kaesang [not Gibran], because if his business facing crumble, bankruptcy, what happened if Kaesang elected to be a new Mayor of Depok, [AGAIN] the poorest city in near Jakarta [if compare with South Tangerang, Bogor, Bekasi]. 

Contrary Kaesang, Gibran, his older brother, maybe has a bigger advantage. Although Gibran-Kaesang business facing conundrum, in last 2 years and 8 months, Gibran succesfully bring Solo city to be a higher level, reduce a poverty. Not surprise if in Indonesia election 2024, Gibran to be VP candidate.

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INDONESIA

Sekitar jam 1 siang waktu Jakarta (jam 2 pagi waktu Amerika, jam 8 siang waktu Berlin), Kaesang, anak bungsu Presiden Jokowi, memilih bergabung dengan Partai Solidaritas Indonesia, partai non parlemen (karena gagal melampaui treshold di Pemilu 2019). Bergabung dengan PSI, Kaesang mengincar Walikota Depok. [Harus diakui] Depok adalah kota termiskin di pinggiran Jakarta dibanding Bogor, Tangerang Selatan, dan Bekasi.

Dalam penjajahan Belanda, Depok dulunya ‘Kota KRISTEN [De Eereste Protestantse Organisatie van Kristenen].’ Sejak 1999, 1 tahun setelah lengsernya Presiden Soeharto, Depok menjadi kota terpisah dan atau pengelolaannya punya pemerintahan sendiri, tidak lagi bergantung Jakarta dan memiliki Walikota sendiri. Sejak 1999 pula, Walikota Depok selalu dari sosok/figur politisi partai Islam. Meski Badrul Kamal, walikota pertama Depok pada 1999 adalah independen, di kemudian hari dirinya terafiliasi politik untuk pemilihan lanjutan.

Tapi dalam tulisan ini, saya ingin mengulas bahwa bergabungnya Kaesang mungkin ….. mungkin sudah kehilangan momentum. Ada banyak hal yang terjadi antara saat saya menulis terkait Kaesang [BERBULAN LALU] dengan kejadian per hari ini. Kehilangan momentum ini, secara teknis esktrim, adalah PSI akan tetap sulit mencapai Treshold di 2024, bahkan sangat mungkin perolehan suara PSI lebih rendah dibanding 2019, dan atau faktor Kaesang tidak membantu menghadirkan genjotan suara.

Tidak seperti ayahnya (Presiden Jokowi), kakaknya (Gibran), dan kakak iparnya (Bobby Nasution) yang bergabung dengan PDIP, partai pemenang pemilu 1999, 2014, dan 2019, Kaesang memilih “partai biasa”, jika dibilang begitu. Analogi yang saya pakai saat menulis berbulan lalu, Kaesang lebih memilih jadi “kepala kucing” (signifikan di partai kecil bernama PSI) dibanding ekor singa (anggota biasa saja di partai amat besar seperti PDIP).

Tapi banyak hal berkembang, dan sebetulnya, negatif untuk Kaesang.

Jokowi di saat 3 dekade lalu, harus diakui, bukan siapa-siapa. Benar, pengusaha yang sanggup mengundang Sri Mulyani untuk jadi pembicara di suatu diskusi ekonomi pada 1998. Tapi secara nama nasional, belum ada.

Leverage yang dimiliki Jokowi tidak sebesar semua anak-anaknya (termasuk anak perempuannya) pasca Jokowi menang lagi / menang dua kali pemilu. Jokowi menjadi lebih kecil secara tawar-menawar politik saat bergabung dengan PDIP saat berupaya menjadi Walikota Solo, dibanding leverage semua anak-anaknya. Bahkan bertahun lalu, leverage Gibran Rakabuming, anak tertua Jokowi, juga lebih besar dibanding Jokowi pada 1990an. Mari bandingkan. Gibran menjadi Walikota Solo pada 26 Februari 2021, melaui partai PDIP, atau berusia 33.5 tahun (Gibran lahir 1 Oktober 1987). Pada usia 33.5 tahun, Jokowi artinya diperkirakan pada Desember 1994/Januari 1995 (karena Jokowi lahir 21 Juni 1961, ya Gemini), secara penuturan sejarah hidup beliau, adalah tahun keenam - tahun ketujuh perusahaan yang didirikan Jokowi, CV Rakabu (didirikan 1987).

Sebagai anak Presiden, baik Gibran, Kahiyang (kemudian menikah dengan Bobby Nasution), dan Kaesang punya leverage amat tinggi atau besar, bahkan dibanding ayahnya sendiri di usia yang sama. Menurut riset sehari penuh dilakukan kemarin, meski amat sulit memisahkan secara murni “mana pendanaan untuk Gibran saja” “mana pendanaan untuk Kaesang saja” (karena berulang kali, di twitter dan instagram, Kaesang menegaskan bahwa beberapa gerai katering berbeda kepemilikan antara dia dan Gibran), segala funding yang diberikan terkait start-up, terkait Venture Capital, terkait private equity dan kemudian diterima dan atau terkait perusahaan yang afiliatif dengan Kaesang atau Gibran atau keduanya sekaligus, mencapai 700 miliar rupiah. Menurut/per April 2023, Kekayaan Presiden Joko Widodo meningkat hingga Rp 10.898.137.487 atau Rp 10,8 miliar dalam setahun. Kekayaan Jokowi pada LHKPN 2022 (dilaporkan pada pada 17 Maret 2023/periodik 2022) sebesar Rp 82.369.583.676, meningkat 15,25 persen dari tahun sebelumnya. 82.3 miliar dan 700an miliar adalah gap/selisih yang amat besar. 

Tidak bermaksud mengkritisi sebetulnya, jika Jokowi bukan Presiden, sepertinya sulit sekali jika Gibran dan Kaesang bisa mendapatkan pendanaan (secara total) 700an miliar. Murni memang dampak jokowi selaku Presiden, membuat leverage untuk semua anaknya menjadi amat besar. Khusus Kaesang, dengan leverage amat besar, dia tidak merasa terbebani seperti Jokowi saat harus menjadi anggota PDIP pada saat upaya Jokowi menjadi Walikota Solo, Kaesang lebih memilih menjadi anggota PSI. Tapi berbagai kasus kebangkrutan (sebagian bisnis) Kaesang mungkin jadi hambatan popularitas Kaesang maupun PSI.

Dalam 3 pekan terakhir terjadi berita, di dua sisi, yang amat jomplang. Berbagai bisnis katering dibawah Kaesang (diasumsikan per memulai Walikota Solo pada 26 Februari 2021, semua operasi bisnis Gibran dialihkan kontrol kualitas operasi kepada Kaesang, meski tidak jelas bagaimana persentase kepemilikannya) dan juga selebritas Indonesia (utamanya bisnis Raffi Ahmad) menghadapi kebangkrutan. Bagaimana mungkin bisnis yang (1) dimiliki orang amat terkenal, termasuk anak Presiden (juga artinya selebritas), dan (2) dibanjiri pendanaan amat besar dari berbagai investor, VC dan lainnya, serta (3) gampang sekali viral dan atau diviralkan, bisa bangkrut. Sisi yang lain, bisnis konvensional, non online, masih manual, non viral, dalam hal ini pusat grosir tanahabang, perbelanjaan (secara skala luas bangunan) terbesar di Asia Tenggara dan terbesar ke 4 di Asia, bisa bangkrut.

3 Pekan terakhir kebangkrutan berbagai bisnis Kaesang (& Gibran sekaligus logikanya), menjadi hambatan logikal yang sudah berbeda jauh dibanding berbulan lalu saya menulis juga tentang Kaesang. Sangat mungkin berbagai musuh politik Jokowi secara tidak langsung, dan atau musuh politik / berseberangan dengan Kaesang akan memakai kegagalan bisnis ini sampai bertahun kedepan, dan itu akan mempersulit pula jangkauan PSI untuk meraih ceruk suara yang baru. Secara teknis bisns startup memang sedang amat sulit utamanya sejak covid. (Mantan) teman saya menimbulkan kerugian triliunan di dua startup berbeda.

Tapi Gibran mungkin lebih beruntung secara citra dibanding adiknya Kaesang. Karena sukses mengubah wajah Solo selaku walikota menjadi jauh lebih maju dan gemerlap, sukses mengurangi kemiskinan, ‘nilai politik’ Gibran jauh lebih besar dibanding Kaesang. Bahkan makin sering disebut sebagai calon wakil presiden.

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-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed. Now figure out, or, prevent catastrophic situations in the Indonesian administration from outside the government. After his mom was nearly killed by a syndicate, now I do it (catch all these blunders, especially blunders by an asshole syndicates) for free. Writer actually facing 12 years attack-simultaneously (physically terror, cyberattack terror) by his (ex) friend in IR UGM / HI UGM (all of them actually indebted to me, at least get a very cheap book). 2 times, my mom nearly got assassinated by my friend with “komplotan” / weird syndicate. Once assassin, forever is assassin, that I was facing in years. I push myself to be (keep) dovish, pacifist, and you can read my pacifist tone in every note I write. A framing that myself propagated for years.

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