At the tender age of 25, Maxwell Frost has become the first member of Generation Z to be elected to Congress, after winning Florida's 10th Congressional District. Democrats take control of Michigan House. Democrats will have full control of state government in 2023 for the first time in 40 years. But after counting in California 27 (Nov 17th, 8 pm), GOP wins and already secure 218 seats in US Congress. Democrat taken Senate (50 v 49, with Georgia Runoff Dec 6th), GOP taken House (at least 219 seats, per Nov 18th, 11.17 pm, after win in Colorado 3, Lauren Boebert).
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Refresh this substack to see more of the history-makers, and awkward, of the 2022 midterm election. Not sure if twitter’s gonna be around much longer, join my substack to keep in touch (*was in English, German, Francais, Indonesian language. More / Planning: Turkiye, Dutch)
Another remarkable, but, maybe horrible: we might be looking at the funniest possible outcome which is a 50-50 democrats senate and a one seat Democrat majority in the house. In Australia, have definition "Hung". It doesn't matter the politics, and whomever won. What is important is market transparency. No more "insider info" so politicians reach a profit on market, for example. Per Nov 17th, 11 am, after GOP reaches 218 seats (since Nov 16th), Nancy Pelosi step down, no longer Leader Democratic House. Because GOP take House, so the new Leader in House / Congress is Kevin McCarthy.
Pict BEFORE additional ballot in Washoe Nevada Nov 12th, 6.30 pm
WASHOE NEVADA November 12th (check again my excel screenshot about re-calculating Masto vs Laxalt)
WASHOE NEVADA November 11th
California 13. AT least until 5 pm ET (November 12th) still (only) 84 vote separate. all remaining votes favor Democrat in California 13. Even in another California districts.
The results of the midterms appear well short of the “red tsunami” of Republican dreams. Potential 'red tsunami 🌊" turns into trickle in disappointing midterm elections for Republicans. Democrats showed up, Trump-backed candidates underperformed and inflation wasn’t the whole story. Every single Republican who won their primary with help from Democratic meddling has lost in the general election.
Florida counted 7.2 million votes by 9PM and counted 99% of the votes by midnight.
AZ currently (8.54 am ---- at least 17 hours after polling station has been closed) too lazy, has (only) 63% of the vote counted (1.7 million votes). Officials say it could take until Friday to have 90-99% in.
Back again with tied, tossup, hung, 217 - 217 scenario of House.
The size of the House majority won't matter a whole lot. Assuming GOP Kevin McCarthy has a cushion to get the speaker's gavel (and I assume he will), the margin won't practically come into play very much when trying to govern. The House isn't going to be trying to make law with 218R votes. There's not going to be a reconciliation bill that becomes law. There's no tax reform or ACA repeal this time around.
The House will pass a bunch of messaging bills designed to get 218Rs (already secure Nov 17th, 8 pm, after finishing tabulation in California 27) and end there. And then there will be the things that have to get done in a bipartisan way, and you're not coming close to 218R on those anyway. So the difference between 228 and 242 won't be an issue very often.
Another Example Very Tight Race: Colorado 3
factcheck number in Colorado 3:
1,400 military & overseas ballots
3,000 cure ballots
questionably up to 2000 non-military overseas
380 Garfield
100 Pitkin
265 La Plata
578 Pueblo
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last election:
21,838 ballots were rejected; 16,000 cure
Lauren lead (Nov 10th, 11.37 pm ET). Lead 1,122 votes
Lauren Boebert (GOP): 162,040
Adam Frisch (Democrats): 160,918
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Lauren lead (Nov 10th, 9.18 pm ET). Lead 1,136 votes
Lauren Boebert (GOP): 160,451
Adam Frisch (Democrats): 159,315
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Lauren lead (Nov 10th, 7.22 pm ET). Lead 1,229 votes
Lauren Boebert (GOP): 160,432
Adam Frisch (Democrats): 159,203
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Lauren lead (Nov 10th, 7.12 pm ET). Lead 652 votes
Lauren Boebert (GOP): 159,129
Adam Frisch (Democrats): 158,477
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Lauren lead (Nov 10th, 4.21 pm ET). Lead 794 votes
Lauren Boebert (GOP): 159,029
Adam Frisch (Democrats): 158,235
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Lauren lead (Nov 10th, 2.21 pm ET). Lead 433 votes
Lauren Boebert (GOP): 157,805
Adam Frisch (Democrats): 157,372
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1.22 pm
Lauren Boebert (GOP) 157,743 votes
Dems Adam Frisch: 157,357
LEAD: 386
Timeline / phase by phase:
19 hours ago (6 pm ET, Nov 9th): Adam lead 21 votes
17 hours ago (8 pm ET, Nov 9th): Adam lead 73 (155,579 vs 155,506)
15 hours ago (10 pm ET, Nov 9th): Adam lead 64 (156,746 vs 156,682)
3 hours ago (Nov 10th, around 1.20 pm): Lauren lead 386
2 hour ago (Nov 10th, around 2.21 pm ET): Lauren lead 433
30 minutes ago (Nov 10th, 4.21 pm ET): Lauren lead 794
(per 10 pm Nov 9th until 1 pm Nov 10th—- arguably counting process has been postponed to shut eye). Adam lead 64 votes so far
(per Wednesday Nov 9th, 9.57 pm ET. Only separate 73 votes. Click)
In 2020, 429,319 votes total. If compare Midterm this year, very drop.
Boebert actually very drop too. From 220,634, now only 160k-163k
This is simplifying it a bit. Appropriations, for example, are going to be a grind to pass with GOPs and they'll welcome more votes there. But most bills aren't like that. Nearest (plan) bill is Big Tech bill / Antitrust, in the wake of layoff several Big Tech (Twitter, Facebook, Lyft, Chime, Dapper, apple, etc). The big caveat here of course is if they return the motion to vacate rules to the previous way it worked, and whether McCarthy has that hanging over him all the time.
(in Live Update about Elon Reeve Musk, already I set up 150+ different companies and 150+ engineer in this link, open his / her hand for everyone who get layoff from every Big Tech——- not only Twitter)
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(maybe 🤔) democracy was a mistake. I cannot even begin to describe to you what it was all about, but to suggest apolitical or "people who never use his/her vote", it was like talking to someone from outer space.
With a challenge (still) a lot US citizens insisted to don't use his/her vote in the ballot or polling station, Democrats were going to outperform expectations and confound their critics. Democratic victories in governor, sec state + attorney general races in PA, Michigan, Wisconsin (maybe Arizona + Nevada) will make the 2024 election harder to steal.
Long voting lines, especially Gen-Z lines, aren’t enthusiasm. They’re suppression.
Democracy is sufficient polling places, machines and workers. We do not love to see it. Whatever happens, we must confront the festering fascism—to face this country as it is, hold those breaking it accountable, and repair the damage.
In contrast of age Gen-Z, especially after Maxwell Frost (25 years old) elected to Congress: Chuck Grassley, 89, who was born before the invention of the chocolate chip cookie, will serve another six (6) years in the Senate.
In level state (not national), Nabeela Syed, 23-year old Muslim, Indian-American woman, just flipped a Republican-held suburban district. She will be the youngest member of the Illinois General Assembly. Another state, Nabilah Islam in Georgia Senate, Muslim, youngest in Georgia Senate (she’s 32 years old). Biden should reward the kids with some more of that sweet, sweet student loan forgiveness to Gen-Z or younger.
Until 8.55 pm ET Nov 9th (at least 37 hours after ballot has been closed) 221 Republicans who deny the results of the 2020 election have won their elections so far, according to projections. Dozens of others are leading their opponents.
Four years ago, Democrats flipped 7 gov seats from red to blue, the most since 1982. Many GOPs predicted that they would return the favor in 2022. So far, all 7 Dem incumbents have won re-election, or appear poised to do so. Two more have flipped, and Arizona may make three.
70% in Rust Belt: Re-elected Palestinian - American Muslim Rashida Tlaib
Trump’s specific rationale for Mehmet Oz was that he’d appeal to suburban women who liked him on TV, which didn’t happen at all. When Roe Overturned happens, Trump actually worried because this decision by SCOTUS (Roe Overturned) will be make a GOPs facing difficulties to get more voters from suburban women.
Trump lost the House, the Senate and then the White House ahead of his fourth congressional election as the de facto head of the GOP, in a cycle where Democrats faced steep challenges. Trump personally has fared well, chasing nearly every House GOP who backed impeachment out of office. Some of his candidates fared well. But of the GOP bright spots on Tuesday was from the candidate who Trump kicked in the head - DeSantis (wins in Florida).
Crime fear mongering moved political media. Abortion rights moved votes. Democrats John Fetterman oozed authenticity. Oz didn't even know the Steelers schedule. Democrat John Fetterman wins U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, Oz lose.
Assuming people would like Dr. Oz because he was on TV (was truly neutral/blank on topic), but I am still kind of surprised how hostile a lot of people seem to have been to Dr. Oz in stories you'd read about swing voters and such
Beside Fetterman on Senate, Democrats win the governorship in Pennsylvania and feel good about Michigan and Wisconsin. If that holds, it’s a massive defeat for election deniers and speaks well for fair elections in 2024.
GOPs botched a national election with inflation running rampant across the country. Rs ran Newt out of town for far less than this in 1998. Wonder how Trump and McCarthy fare after the DeSantis coronation and the GOPs disaster. Dobbs, Donald Trump, and Election Deniers are proving to be a toxic mix for Republicans.
Kentucky and Kansas: Red states just say NO. Kentucky voters reject constitutional amendment on abortion. Sharice Davids is running well clear of GOP challenger Amanda Adkins in Kansas, 55-43 with 95% of the vote in. Sharice Davids ran on abortion rights and constantly tied Adkins to her former boss, former Gov. Sam Brownback.
Significant national security experience remains in Congress with Slotkin (Michigan) and Spanberger-two former agency officers-winning. Key moderate voices in the party who favor an active US role in the world, strengthened alliances, and sustained assistance to Ukraine.
Another Michiganders, Jocelyn Benson, defeats one of the election deniers, Kristina Karamo, running for secretary of state, who still picked up 44% of the vote in Michigan.
Cortez Masto pulling out Senate win for Democrats in Nevada. If so, it would serve as final crushing blow for Republicans Senate chances.
Too many GOPers in their pitiful bubbles don't understand how radical the GOP looks with Trump and Trumpie candidates all over the place. The fear of Trump is a huge turnout mechanism for the Democrats.
Turnout is 42million so far (still counting), up 8% over 18.
Democrats up 50-39 (+11), 4.7m national vote lead.
In 18 years old at this point 47-45 (+2), in 20 years old 48-41 (+7).
Democrats state "firewalls" grew across US this weekend.
Electorate keeps getting younger.
Democrats do better in this election than anticipated some credit will need to go to the many Republicans who bravely have worked so hard to convince other Rs to vote against MAGA. Liz Cheney first among them.
*same question about patience and funding again to Beto (*lose since 2016, because Texas too RED) after Beto build brick-by-brick political infrastructure in Texas. Same question for another Dems in RED state, or another GOP in BLUE state.
There is just overwhelming evidence based on high quality national/state polls and Democrats polling in CA/SW/TX that the "Hispanics are fleeing" to GOP narrative has been wildly exaggerated. Republicans are paying a price for projecting so much optimism over the past two weeks. They're likely to take the House, but it will look quite underwhelming considering the predictions of a red wave.
With current (counting) results of US midterm, Biden maybe leaving DC to G20 Summit (*Indonesia, Jokowi is Chairmanships this year) in Bali this week with very happy. Regardless will facing, face to face directly, Xi Jinping but not facing Putin (*Putin also was a no show in Rome / Italy chairmanship G20 for 2021). Biden run again in Presidential Election 2024.
With GOP only get 49 in senate, and maybe only get 214 in Congress, Trump’s iron grip on the GOP is beginning to crack. And some Republicans aren’t even sure he’s in command at all anymore.
“The question is: who is the current leader of the Republican Party? Oh, I know who it is: Ron DeSantis,” said Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), citing the Florida governor’s blowout reelection win last week. “Ron DeSantis is the leader of the Republican Party, whether he wants to be or not.” Trump (insist) is expected to make a campaign splash at Mar-a-Lago Tuesday night (Nov. 15th). But even his staunchest allies aren't leaping to an endorsement.
Trump, who fostered a culture of fierce loyalty among Hill Republicans despite a scandal-plagued administration, is now increasingly viewed as a political liability after the latest midterm cycle. A raft of top Republicans is urging him to put off his presidential announcement until after the Georgia Senate runoff next month, with several longtime allies declining to immediately bless him as they focus on GOP leadership elections or figuring out what went wrong last Tuesday.
Reeling Republicans gathered in Washington on Monday for the first time since September, with the Senate lost and the House majority barely on track after the party failed to topple Democratic governors outside of Nevada. Trump helped crown many of the party’s lackluster nominees who lost winnable races, from Senate contests in Arizona and Pennsylvania to House battles in Ohio and Michigan.
And his fixation on the 2020 election is getting old for Republicans of all stripes.
“Looking forward is always a better campaign strategy. Looking back on 2020 obviously didn’t work out. We ought to look forward,” said Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.).
In the House, where Trump generally has more support among the rank-and-file, lawmakers said they’d be watching eagerly on Tuesday night and touted his record as president. But few were willing to commit to endorsing him, saying they want to see how the rest of the 2024 field shapes up and would keep a close watch on the rollout of Trump’s likely campaign.
“He’s got a record. He’s proven that that is how he can perform,” Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) said. “So therefore, absolutely I’m going to be giving strong consideration to him. But I’m going to withhold an endorsement until we see where things go.”
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, meanwhile, declined to comment on Trump’s 2024 ambitions as he emerged from a closed-door GOP conference meeting on Monday night that was centered on leadership elections: “We’ll see what happens there, but right now we’re working towards getting the Congress back.“
Congressional Republicans were slow to embrace Trump during the 2016 cycle, but by the time he was running for re-election, almost the entire party was behind him. This time Trump starts out somewhere in between — and even those who back him aren’t bending to his every whim.
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said he would support Trump, but that he also backs McConnell as GOP leader.
“Is that an oxymoron?” Tuberville asked rhetorically, referring to the long-running bad blood between the two men. “Everybody’s got their opinion. As I just said, I represent Alabama.”
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-prada- (Adi Mulia Pradana) is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed.
(Very rare compliment and initiative pledge. Thank you. Yes, even a lot of people associated me PRAVDA, not part of MIUCCIA PRADA. I’m literally asshole on debate, since in college). Especially tonight heated between Putin and Prigozhin.
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