There Are No Small Nuclear Weapon
Iran reiterate capable producing nuclear bomb -- after Biden-Lapid threaten Tehran
13 hours ago, Biden landed in JB Andrew, after a Middle East Trip. Until early July, the unpredictable situation emerged: The Two Rivals, Saudi and Iran, have a warm ties — even best ever. Then, Biden landed in Tel Aviv (July 13th). Trip included a presentation of Israel's "Iron Beam" air defense system (uses lasers to intercept drones/missiles) — more sophisticated than “Iron Dome”.
More than 50 years ago, in 1970, Jerusalem Mayor Teddy Kollek visited Iran's city of Shiraz & fell in love with its gardens. He later adapted many of the same garden & landscaping designs for parks in Jerusalem. Teddy Kollek was so impressed by the warm welcome and help shown to him by then Shriaz mayor Rahamat-Allah Izadi that in 1973 he sent Izadi the "Medallion of Jerusalem '' as a gesture of friendship. Too long — very different path, than today Iran administration himself said “Yes”, Iran technically capable to producing nuclear bomb.
Same hour Biden landed in JB Andrews today, Iranian FM spokesperson said Washington "has once again resorted to the failed policy of Iran-phobia, trying to create tensions and crises in the region. The Iran commander added that “As we are aware of the aggressive attitude in the (U.S.) system of domination, it is necessary to increase our defensive capabilities day-by-day. If the enemies (U.S., Israel) make a mistake, (these drones) will present them with a regrettable response. Biden caters to autocrats and hawkish-orthodoxs Israeli, and draws battlelines in the Middle East. Very little to show for his trip, and the image (fist-bump) with Mohammed bin Salman will haunt his presidency—especially his moderate voters.
Biden’s trip has taken US policy in a “much more dangerous direction,” not only sacrifice to Khashoggi family. Biden’s trip contrary to the “soft-tone” declaration: Negev Agreement; also Jerusalem Declaration (Biden-PM Lapid); GCC Framework, and even the idea of “NATO of Middle East”. Today, the IDF General will visit Morocco, this is first ever. No surprise if Israel will try to lure Libya, Algeria, and Tunisia.
In other side, Khamenei adviser and former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi says Iran 'capable of building nuclear bomb, but also added that Iran has no decision to make one. So, the Fordow, Natanz and Bushehr nuclear plant is arguably in full-siege if the IDF tries to sabotage like Stuxnet. Though still no evidence of weaponization, breakout time now a matter of weeks. But European officials put it: “If Iran’s nuclear program was a Fiat back in before the Russia - Ukraine war, it is now a Ferrari ''. The fact is that neither U.S., and Israel, nor Iran are going to get everything they want: Elements of nuclear advancement cannot be totally reversed, and real limits to what admin offers on sanx relief or "guarantees" that simply can't be given.
A war with Iran would be “3 or 4 times bigger and more deadly than Iraq and Afghanistan. It will make everything else look like a kindergarten party. Iran is the most populous country in the Middle East, and has a large arsenal. Iran has supplied unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to its proxies in the Middle East. Iran still supplies Lebanon (Hezbollah) and some stuff to HAMAS (Palestine), and the newest situation: Iran shares a drone “Shaheed” to Russia. The Iranian Army's naval force launched what it calls a "drone carrier division" the same day Biden signed the Jerusalem Declaration with Yair Lapid. Drones launched from the Soviet-era Kilo-class submarine Tareq, auxiliary ship Delvar, and landing ship Lavan.
With very aggressive approach by Biden himself about Iran, even his said “yes” about IRGC will and always to be ”terrorist list”, is provocative. He's keeping the IRGC's designation even if it kills the nuclear deal. This on the same day that Iran suggested putting off the issue of the Guards' FTO delisting.
Meanwhile, FM Saudi Prince Faisal bin Farhan reminded that dialogue and diplomacy are the only solutions to Iran nuclear exploratory today. Another reminder, UAE president's diplomatic adviser says Abu Dhabi doesn’t support a regional alliance to confront Iran, adding that UAE is preparing to send an ambassador to Tehran — maybe on the same date as Putin in Tehran (July 19th). Putin will meet again President Raisi (Iran) after the Caspian Summit 28-29 June — the same date when the NATO Summit was held in Madrid.
This comes as the U.S. says it’s working to integrate Middle East air defense systems in the face of Iran. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, in the UNSC meeting, UAE repeatedly said “NO” or “ABSTAINED” on several voting to hit Russia. UAE is probably angling for some strategic ambiguity here, but that fact alone shows how Biden’s foreign policy team has failed to understand that the region has changed in important ways since 2016.
Continuing costs of the US pattern of throwing overboard any treaty it likes--Agreed Framework, JCPOA. Leads to lack of any credibility behind US signatures and makes arms control in general vastly more difficult to reach. Without really knowing it, we're creating a world in which US participation in arms agreements is almost impossible. That's likely a more dangerous and unstable world--trade offs seldom weighed against the claimed advantages of bolting the treaties. The U.S. should be endorsing exactly this kind of diplomacy and de-escalation. A region that longs for peace remains afflicted by Tehran and its proxies. No regional country can be assured of its security until the international community offers a concrete approach to this challenge.
The awkward, every single backchannel from EU officials and (even) some U.S. almost daily contact with backchannel from counterpart (Tehran), amid the fact that no clear Iran Talk continued/negotiations is foreseen. Russia and Iran are unlikely to forge a deep partnership. In terms of trade, there are several challenges. They make the same stuff of weapons. Consumers in both markets are getting poorer especially on wheat and grain. The H2 2021 Russian customs data shows it was all grain to Iran. increase in Russian pharma exports to Iran in H2 2021. Exports hit $27m in Q4 2021. Meanwhile, on the imports side Iran has been selling more fruits and nuts.
Iran exposes Russian firms to secondary sanctions— another backchannel for Russia to ease sanction impact. Iranian economy—very dependent on the volatile price of gas - oil today, will continue to be undermined if there is a limited choice in trading partners and pressure to engage in barter agreements where Iran is the weaker party. But the increased trade isn't with Iran - Rusia only. Saudi Arabia imported 647,000 tonnes (48,000 barrels per day) of fuel oil from Russia via Russian and Estonian ports in April-June this year. That was up from 320,000 tonnes in the same period a year ago.
In a speech to GCC+3 in Jeddah, Biden says the framework has 5 principles. The U.S. will support and strengthen partnerships with countries that subscribe to the rules based international order. Biden pointed directly to Russia's war in Ukraine. The US will not allow – not allow – a foreign power to jeopardize freedom of navigation nor will we tolerate efforts of any country to dominate another in the region through military buildups, incursions, and/or threats. This is very clear, Biden directly referenced Iran.
The U.S also will not just aim to deter threats to regional stability. We will work to reduce tensions to de-escalate and conflicts wherever possible.” References both efforts to "counter" Iran and "pursuing diplomacy" with Iran. The U.S. also will build political, economic and security connections between US partners wherever possible while respecting each country's sovereignty and independent choices. Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Bahrain working with Israeli military and intelligence on regional architecture, meanwhile Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait decide on less options.
The U.S. will always promote human rights and the values enshrined in the UN Charter. The funny: one word that didn't appear in the framework is "Israel", when the whole framework is actually just the vulgar purpose of Israel: beating Iran. Biden vowed that the US would not tolerate efforts by any country to dominate another in the region through military buildups, incursions, and or threats, in a transparent reference to Iran. Biden trying to isolate China, Russia, and Iran on the influence of realpolitik in the Middle East, will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran.
U.S. & Iran have engaged in months of indirect talks aimed at restoring JCPOA. These have failed to deliver a framework for mutual compliance. Israeli government has always been implacably opposed to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. But some high-ranking members of the Israeli defense and intelligence establishments are insisting that reviving the agreement would be in Tel Aviv’s best interest.
Unsurprisingly, each sees the other at fault. E3 aligned with U.S.; Russia & China not unsympathetic to Iran but within limits. While nuclear capabilities were growing, transparency with IAEA (*no longer CCTV by IAEA live streaming in every Iranian nuclear power plant) was shrinking. Among the areas of disagreement between Tehran and the agency is demand that a probe into undeclared activities be closed as a condition for JCPOA compliance. Regional tensions between Iran and Israel plus the U.S. continue to manifest on multiple fronts, notably Iraq, where recent days have punctured a relative lull, as well as Syria & maritime. While not quite on a hair trigger, escalatory risks are significant. And just a reminder: Turkiye already sent a military force since 2 months ago in the Kurdistan region and near the Syrian border.
This is a really critical clock ticking time, perhaps even the last chance, to salvage the Iran nuclear deal. Resurrecting it and preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear armed nation would be a major foreign-policy, diplomacy to prevent bigger war, accomplishment. We need to get back into the Iran Talk and time is not on our side. Both Yair Lapid plus Biden and President Raisi and Khamenei also Guardian Council (including 95 years old Ahmad Jannati–will be in the seat until 2028) need to meet in the middle of a deal. This is possible if the political will exists. Not clear that it does.
