Hawkish in Taiwan
Taipei and Beijing 11.05am
Foxconn founder Terry Gou (Chinese: 郭台銘; pinyin: Guō Táimíng; born 18 October 1950) to announce his candidacy for Taiwan president on Monday. This would turn the January election into a 4-way race. Most votes wins: no runoff, no preferences.
Candidates would be current VP Lai Ching-te of the DPP, KMT’s Hou You-ih, former Taipei Mayor Ke Wen-je of the new Taiwan People’s Party. And Gou, who stepped down from Foxconn 4 years ago. Gou was inspired by (former POTUS) Trump, and thinks his business skills make him the better choice.
As we know, Trump and especially his Secretary of State Pompeo, is very hawkish approach about China, very Taiwan-ish.
Gou lacks the political machinery of the other three candidates for Taiwan President. He’s betting that his money will be enough, that’s not so easy in Taiwan. Arguably: same situation as Trump in 2016, and with a lot of money (& brutal campaign), he wins over Hillary.
Terry Gou most likely steals votes from KMT’s Hou & TPP’s Ke. Not Lai. His entry helps the DPP. But DPP lost some support among its traditional youth base, who are drawn to Ke. Gou resonates with middle-aged, & has strong overlap with Ke. KMT will suffer, but it’s base is more solid.
As he campaigns to be Taiwan president, expect Terry Gou to attack DPP hard on two main fronts.
First issue, trouble with China. Terry Gou will paint the DPP as inviting war, and he as the peacemaker. Second issue, the Taiwan’s Economy. Gou sees himself (billionaire) as the only candidate with economic & financial experience, and will make bold promises about GDP growth, jobs, and government finances (include health insurance & pensions), in the wake of potential China - Taiwan war.
If Russia - Ukraine war, day 550 / day 551 now already wipe out around US$20 trillion market cap and at least spend totally US$3 Trillion from both sides (*Ukraine + NATO and other coalition), China - Taiwan war will 5-6x bigger than Ukraine - Russia war.
Gou’s campaign strength will also be his weakness. The “war & trouble” critique of the DPP is not new; the KMT has been using it for two decades. It may resonate more loudly now because of China’s recent assertiveness. Gou’s business background may backfire in the Taiwan election. TPP’s Ke already stated: running government isn’t like running a company, and has noted the many stakeholders required for governance. Trump is seen as a failure, mimicking him is not a winning strategy.
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