Indonesia: The "French" of Pacific
Indonesia: The "French" of Pacific
As a mark of respect for the memory of Abe Shinzo. In fact (because of continuing tremor therapy), I've typed about Abe Shinzo when (ongoing news) "still alive, but critical". Then, when he died, only 3-4 minutes after finishing typing, Abe Shinzo was reported died (5.03 pm Tokyo time/6.03 pm WIT, and I made minor edits before I uploaded the obituary about Abe Shinzo's.
But, the most disturbing thing/narrative about Abe Shinzo for me is one of Abe Shinzo's legacy itself. You can listen carefully to one of the most frequently reported issues related to Abe's achievements.
Abe initiated the military cooperation QUAD, which consisted of Japan, India, America and Australia. This military cooperation in addition to ensuring a security coalition in the Pacific, is basically Japan's effort to offset China's presence in the entire Pacific.
QUAD's official name is Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. For ordinary people, maybe the sentence above is a “normal phrase”. But for dovish, pro peace, and IR graduates, I'm always upset, confused by QUAD's irregularities. Why has Indonesia not been included in QUAD? For example, (if Indonesia was to be a QUAD member) it was later revised to become QUADI, or because five (PENTA, Latin) for example became a PENTA Dialogue. The main question: Indonesia is just a small thing for Japan (& America) so it's never been included as a QUAD?
I try to focus only on Japan and America, although I try to "graze" India and Australia a little. For sure: as long as I do IR graduates, I (to be honest) rarely write about India.
I will try to see further what has happened since 2007. To be imagined, Indonesia in 2007 should have around 230 million people. While Japan is about 120 million people (*Japan's population is stagnant), America is probably around 305 million people. I never use a google every time I write a substack. Abe Shinzo became PM in his first inaugural period (2006-2007), and became a very long term in his second term (2012-2021).
Although the third year of recovery after the Indian Tsunami disaster (Indonesia, Thailand, Maldives) December 26, 2004, the Indonesian military at that time was still a good military presence. It is true, the 2007 Indonesian budget (APBN) is still being sucked in by the costs of the post-disaster Aceh-North Sumatra reconstruction. I even remember articles related to Aceh. Around August 2005:
For a rare event, two very important officials met in a separate emergency meeting at Caswell, the most luxurious cafe in Aceh which was set up as an emergency, mainly to cater for expatriates and NGOs who helped reconstruct Aceh after the Tsunami disaster. Alexander Downer, the Australian Foreign Minister met downstairs, while the German Finance Minister met upstairs.
Indonesia was a strong "ally" with the West during the Aceh disaster, not China. Even because of the West (mainly Finland and Sweden), Indonesia made a peace agreement with GAM (Aceh Freedom). China throughout 2004-2008 was too busy preparing for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. As I recall, Japan enlarged its embassy building in 2005 so that it looks like the “fortress” that looks (like) today in Thamrin.
OK. It is fairer to refer to 2012, Abe's second term. Indonesia is still led by the same people and coincidentally retired military. But the American President has even changed to a "The Menteng Guy" named Obama - although the tender process for a massive renovation of the American Embassy was only tendered and/or advertised in 2015, before Obama's term of office ended (*I saw the ad on Kompas Newspaper Saturday), which means The U.S. embassy in Jakarta was heavily renovated, and finally completed, under the Trump regime.
Even during COVID, QUAD leaders voted for “additional countries, partially-temporarily” namely New Zealand (because its partner is Australia), South Korea (next to Japan), and Vietnam (*I don't know how the process of choosing Vietnam was). I try to believe that because of the trade and border disputes between Vietnam and China for years, it was the U.S. who gave input that the partnership (should be added) was Vietnam. I don't know if India has ever given the idea of an additional QUAD country. The awkward: South Korea was inputted by Abe Shinzo himself on QUAD, at the same time Abe was also waging a trade war with South Korea (as I recall, since late 2019—I didn't google).
Indonesia even, at least the Jakarta government, gave a green-light to the MRT project in 2013, with Japan. Indonesia, literally the central government (Jokowi), only really got "familiar-significant cooperation" with China after the Jakarta-Bandung KCIC agreement and that was 2015. There was at least a very intense 3-year gap between Japan-Indonesia (even America-Indonesia), but Indonesia, perhaps 246 million people around 2015, has not been made a temporary partner (such as NZ, Vietnam, South Korea), let alone a permanent member of QUAD.
Japan, for the last two ambassadors, are ambassadors who “really like to spoil Indonesia” in their content (Instagram). Maybe (mainly) the previous Ambassador liked to show off Indonesian food, so he left a message to the current Japan Ambassador for Indonesia so that the legacy-practical “post a Indonesia culinary” would continue. It's rare for ambassadors from other countries to “have to create local content” too often, and become popular because of that.
The current American ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, a former mayor of Chicago, was predicted to be a presidential candidate, not a “sissy” who appears every day eating sushi and uploads it to IG. Although I don't mean to say that two “sissy” Japanese ambassadors in Indonesia have appeared in succession, as much as possible they are very active in pampering Indonesian followers—showing that Japan really loves Indonesia. But yes, Indonesia has never been a member of QUAD.Abe Shinzo never says “ah yes, Indonesia must be a QUAD member alliance”.
The Second High-Ranking in the hierarchy of the U.S. Embassy, he even appeared on a sitcom that aired on RCTI. Even though it's actually easy: the U.S. Embassy compound is clearly a ball toss with Hary Tanoe's MNC Building (Kebon Sirih-Medan Merdeka), the collaboration is very easy. But again, America never proposed, and took the initiative to make Indonesia a QUAD partner. By Bush Jr (2007), Obama, Trump, or Biden.
Although the trade volume is important, the larger the trade volume, the higher the strategic level of a country for other countries, but the biggest and most sensitive determinant of a country being considered strategic is (if) military cooperation is invited. France was furious, angry, upset, because not only was it not invited to the AUKUS coalition (America, Australia, UK), and all French submarine contracts (approximately 66 billion Euros) were simply canceled.
Indonesia is almost like France. Big, but not considered, not a REAL strategic partner.
That's why I'm confused when the Higher Commander U.S. Military/Army Commander came to Jakarta, for the first time since 2008 (since General Mike Mullen), then America convinced the TNI (Indonesia Military) to be America's important partner in the Pacific. 274 million active partners, but not included as temporary QUAD members, while NZ (4 million people), Vietnam (97 million people), South Korea (52 million people) entered.
This flip-flop bears (mainly) the attitude of America and Japan to Indonesia, which only makes China "always have an advantage" in forming a coalition with Indonesia. And actually Russia too.
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Added information:
Around 9 pm Beijing time (July 25th) Jokowi has been landed in Beijing. Tuesday morning (July 26th) will meet Xi Jinping)
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(Bahasa Indonesia):
Tidak sama sekali mengurangi rasa hormat mendiang Abe Shinzo. Bahkan (karena tetap melanjutkan terapi agar tidak tremor), saya sudah mengetik tentang Abe Shinzo saat (berita yang berlangsung) “masih hidup, tapi kritis”. Then, saat wafat, hanya 3-4 menitan setelah selesai mengetik, Abe Shinzo diberitakan wafat, dan saya mengedit minor sebelum saya unggah obituarial tentang kiprah Abe Shinzo.
Hal/narasi paling mengganggu tentang Abe Shinzo bagi saya adalah salah satu warisan Abe Shinzo itu sendiri. Anda bisa menyimak baik-baik salah satu yang paling sering diberitakan terkait capaian Abe. Saya bahasa indonesia-kan (*karena kalau dibikin english, yang baca less 30k views—kalau dibikin bahasa Indonesia bisa 70k views):
Abe memprakarsai kerjasama militer QUAD, yang terdiri dari Jepang, India, Amerika, dan Australia. Kerjasama militer ini selain memastikan koalisi keamanan di Pasifik, pada dasarnya adalah upaya jepang mengimbangi kehadiran China di keseluruhan Pasifik.
Nama resmi QUAD adalah Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. Bagi orang biasa mungkin kalimat diatas biasa-biasa saja. Tapi bagi dovish, pro peace, dan HI Bangeeeeeettt, saya, minta maaf banget, selalu kebingungan dengan kejanggalan QUAD. Kenapa Indonesia tidak kunjung dimasukkan ke QUAD, misal kemudian direvisi jadi QUADI. atau karena lima (PENTA, bahasa latin) misal jadi PENTA lateral. Pertanyaan utamanya adalah apakah SEBETULNYA Indonesia cuma hal remeh bagi Jepang (& Amerika) sehingga tidak kunjung dimasukkan sebagai QUAD?
Saya berusaha fokus hanya terkait Jepang dan Amerika, meski saya berusaha sedikit-sedikit “nyerempet” India dan Australia. For sure: sepanjang saya ber-HI ria, saya (jujur banget) jarang menulis spesifik India.
Saya coba melihat lebih jauh apa yang terjadi sejak 2007. Untuk menjadi dibayangkan, Indonesia 2007 harusnya sekitar 230an juta jiwa. Sementara jepang kira-kira 120an juta jiwa (*populasi Jepang stagnan, ga naik, ga turun), Amerika mungkin sekitar 305 juta jiwa. Saya tidak menggoogle tiap menulis substack. Abe Shinzo hanya singkat menjadi PM di periode perdana dia (2006-2007), dan baru jadi panjang sekali masa edarnya saat Abe Shinzo di periode kedua (2012-2021).
Meski tahun ketiga pemulihan pasca bencana Tsunami Hindia (Indonesia, Thailand, Maladewa) 26 Desember 2004, militer Indonesia saat itu tetap milter yang bagus. Benar, budget / APBN Indonesia 2007 masih tersedot biaya-biaya rekonstruksi Aceh-Sumatera Utara pascabencana. Bahkan saya ingat betul artikel seperti ini, terkait ACeh. Sekitar Agustus 2005:
Untuk hal yang langka, dua pejabat maha penting secara darurat rapat terpisah di Caswell, kafe termewah di Aceh yang dibikin darurat, utamanya untuk memenuhi sarapan ekspatriat dan NGO yang menolong rekonstruksi Aceh pasca bencana Tsunami. Alexander Downer, Menlu Australia rapat di lantai bawah, sementara Menteri Keuangan Jerman rapat di lantai atas.
Indonesia sedemikian begitu kuat “ally” pada Barat saat musibah Aceh, bukan China. Bahkan karena Barat (utamanya Finlandia dan Swedia), Indonesia berdamai dengan GAM. China di sepanjang 2004-2008 sibuk mempersiapkan Olimpiade Beijing 2008. Seingat saya, Jepang memperbesar bangunan Kedubesnya di 2005 sehingga tampak seperti “benteng” yang terlihat (seperti) saat ini di Thamrin.
OK. Lebih fair jika merujuk 2012, term kedua Abe. Indonesia masih tetap dipimpin orang yang sama dan kebetulan purnawirawan militer. Tapi Presiden Amerika bahkan sudah berganti menjadi “anak menteng” bernama Obama — meski proses tender untuk merenovasi besar-besaran Kedubes Amerika baru ditenderkan dan atau diiklankan di 2015, jelang Obama berakhir masa jabatan (*saya sempat lihat iklannya di Kompas Sabtu), yang artinya kedubes Amerika di jakarta direnovasi besar-besaran, dan akhirnya rampung, dimasa Trump.
Bahkan saat COVID, para pemimpin QUAD memilih “tambahan negara, secara parsial-temporer” yaitu Selandia Baru (karena rekannya Australia), Korea Selatan (sebelahan Jepang), dan Vietnam (*saya gatau bagaimana proses memilih Vietnam). Saya berusaha meyakini karena sengketa dagang dan perbatasan antara Vietnam-China bertahun-tahun, maka Amerika yang beri input bahwa kemitraan (sebaiknya ditambah) yaitu Vietnam. Saya ga pernah tahu apakah India pernah kasih ide tambahan negara QUAD. Lucunya: Korea Selatan diinput oleh Abe Shinzo sendiri, disaat yang sama Abe pula yang melancarkan perang dagang dengan Korea Selatan (seingat saya sejak 2019 akhir—saya ga ngegoogle).
Indonesia bahkan, setidaknya Jakarta, mengegolkan proyek MRT di 2013. Indonesia, in literal pemerintah pusat, baru benar-benar “akrab” dengan China setelah KCIC Jakarta-Bandung dan itu pun 2015. Ada setidaknya jeda 3 tahun yang sangat intens antara Jepang-Indonesia (pun Amerika-Indonesia), tapi Indonesia, 246an juta jiwa mungkin di sekitar 2015, tidak kunjung dijadikan mitra temporer (seperti NZ, Vietnam, Korsel), apalagi anggota permanen QUAD.
Jepang untuk dua dubes terakhir, adalah dubes yang “sangat suka memanjakan Indonesia” dalam kontennya. Mungkin (utamanya) Dubes sebelumnya suka pamer makanan2 Indonesia, beliau menitip pesan ke Dubes saat ini agar tradisi tersebut berlanjut. Jarang sekali dubes negara lain untuk negara lain sedemikian “harus membuat konten lokal”, dan menjadi populer karena itu. Dubes Amerika untuk Jepang saat ini, Rahm Emanuel, mantan Walikota Chicago, sempat digadang jadi Capres, bukan banci tampil tiap hari makan sushi dan diunggah ke IG. Meski saya tidak sama sekali bermaksud bilang dua dubes Jepang di Indonesia berturut2 banci tampil, tapi sebisa mungkin sangat aktif memanjakan followers Indonesia —memperlihatkan Jepang sangat cinta Indonesia. Tapi ya, ga kunjung Indonesia jadi anggota QUAD.
Rangking Kedua dalam hierarki Kedubes Amerika bahkan sempat muncul di sitkom yang ditayangkan RCTI. Meski itu sebetulnya gampang: bngunan Kedubes Amerika jelas-jelas selemparan bola tenis dengan Gedung MNC milik Hary Tanoe, kerjasamanya gampang sekali. Tapi lagi-lagi, Amerika tidak pernah mengusulkan, berinisiatif menjadikan Indonesia sebagai mitra QUAD.
Meski volume dagang itu penting, makin besar volume dagang makin tinggi tingkat strategis suatu negara bagi negara lain, tapi penentu terbesar dan tersensitif suatu negara dianggap strategis adalah (jika) diajak kerjasama militer. Perancis marah besar karena bukan hanya tidak diajak dalam AUKUS coalition (America, Australia, UK), dan sekalian kontrak kapal selam Perancis (kira-kira 66 Miliar Euro) dibatalkan begitu saja.
Indonesia nyaris kayak Perancis. Besar, tapi ga dianggap.
Makanya saya bingung jika setara Pangab/PangTi Amerika datang ke jakarta, untuk pertama kalinya setelah 2008 (peralihan estafet Bush Jr ke Obama, yang datang PangTi Mike Mullen), lalu kemudian Amerika meyakinkan TNI adalah mitra penting Amerika di pasifik. 274 Juta jiwa mitra enting, tapi ga dimasukkan sebagai QUAD temporer member, sementara NZ (4 juta jiwa), Vietnam (97 juta jiwa), Korsel (52 juta jiwa) masuk.
Flip-flop nanggung (utamanya) sikap Amerika dan Jepang ini yang hanya membuat China “selalu diatas angin” dalam menjalin koalisi dengan Indonesia. Dan sebetulnya juga Rusia.
Tambahan:
Jam 9 malam waktu Beijing (25 Juli), Jokowi mendarat di Beijing. Selasa pagi (26 Juli) Jokowi akan bertemu Xi Jinping.