Zelensky's Arrogance to Jokowi will hurts Ukraine (Kepongahan Zelensky kepada Jokowi hanya akan merugikan Ukraina)
"That remains to be seen." - Biden when asked if he would meet with Putin at G20 Bali Indonesia, as Jokowi to be host. (Oct. 7th)
11 pm WIT/GMT+9 (Monday 4 July 2022), I read the news that Pope Francis prepared to visit Kyiv and Moscow. I'm not sure that the Vatican administration read Jokowi's news (already visited two cities), and was inspired and persuaded by the Pope. I am trying to understand that in the last three months Pope Francis has been reported to be stepping down due to health problems. Instead, Pope Francis himself (without a his spokesman) refuted and, perhaps, to reassure the world that he was perfectly healthy, he himself went to Kyiv and Moscow.
3 hours later, I read serious accusations from researchers in Singapore (formerly Senior Researcher at Indonesia thinktank group): Jokowi lied, had no experience abroad, photo-ops in Ukraine and Russia (on web “OMONG-OMONG”). Then I tried to pay attention to / remember that the website used, months ago, also pointed very sharply at Jokowi's position on handling covid. I even still read (in same website----OMONG-OMONG) “Kamala Harris snub” (American Vice President Kamala did not come to Jakarta during his visit to Asia—Singapore and Vietnam, last July 2021) even though the reason is simple: July 2021, covid fatalities in Indonesia reach more than 1,000/day, while the “lockdown” of Singapore and Vietnam was quite successful. Until it finally turned around: September 2021 - January 2022, the death rate and the number of new sufferers (of Covid) in the two countries per capita were much worse than Indonesia. Then, Indonesia on March until tonight only set 1-3 fatalities/day, too low to compared with every countries in the world. 274 Million population with 1-3 fatalities coronavirus / day is really few.
And the OMONG-OMONG articles (exactly) in the order before “Jokowi's accusations of lying (on Ukraine-Russia)”, up to two article-consecutives, only discussed/praised/look alike Advertise-ampaign of SBY's (Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, former Indonesia President) foreign role and were written by Dipo Alam (the former Secretary of the Cabinet for SBY). I almost thought I wasn't reading the web, but The Observer newspaper created by Gerindra: whatever Jokowi decision is always wrong. Democrat Party (SBY) just get only 7.7 percent national vote in 2019 election — for purpose have a candidate for presidential election in 2024 election, wants 20 percent minimal.
I will not be Putin's Enabler and I'm even angry that Indonesians (many of them) have become Putin's Enablers. I'm not defending Jokowi. But I'm trying to show how complicated things are, because I've even been live-blogging since the war started (February 24th, 3.22 am Kyiv Time/4.22 am Moscow Time).
Tuesday 5 July 2022 at 11 WIT/GMT+9, it means that about 148 hours have passed since Jokowi and Zelensky met in person inside the Presidential Palace in Kyiv. During the early days of the war, when it was clear that Jokowi had called both parties, namely Putin and Zelensky (*whether Jokowi called first), Zelensky in just a few hours immediately posted on Twitter. I'm sure Jokowi (on the phone) persuaded the two sides to make peace, and Zelensky still appreciated the post.
But imagine that in the same situation (trying to persuade the two parties to make peace), not just a phone call, but Jokowi coming in person, Zelensky has not responded or posting something else about meeting with Jokowi, on Twitter for 148 hours. When Zelensky posting everything his call with another President, PM.
CSIS senior researcher Mr Rizal Sukma, when responding to the visit of (former) Australian Foreign Minister Marise Payne and Minister of Defense Dutton to Jakarta in September (*Australian PM at that time was still Scott Morrison, had not lost the election and was replaced by PM Anthony Albanese), stated that (finally) there was a face-to-face diplomatic action, and face-to-face diplomacy is more effective than zoom-meeting or telephone. Australia's visit at that time was also a good sign that in July 2021, there was (slight) tension that a lot of Australian tourists in Bali were stuck for months and wanted to return to Australia because Indonesia was considered "covid hell" at that time. Guess what: more and more Australian tourists are now visiting Bali (again). So that the visit of (former) Minister of Foreign Affairs Payne and Minister of Defense Dutton not only builds more effective actions that are no longer limited by zoom (while in September 2021 Covid cases in Indonesia have dropped dramatically), but also corrects (perhaps) a little misunderstanding in July 2021, where there will be a special operation to pick up “disgruntled Australian in Bali” back to home.
The face-to-face thing is much more effective than zoom or phone. And that was also described by (Ex) PM Israel Naftali Bennett when he secretly visited Moscow to meet Putin and then also (secretly) met Chancellor Scholz in Berlin (5-6 March 2022). If the intention is to reconcile and just use the phone, PM Bennett could just call Putin and persuade him. Many Jews in Ukraine and even Zelensky himself are Jewish. But Bennett chose to come face to face with Putin, discreetly.
Bennett (again) could have been on the phone enough to tell Scholz the “results” of his (secret) meeting with Putin. Germany is a link for America on the European continent, however, especially in the case of Ukraine. But Bennett chose secretly to Berlin to meet Scholz. Diplomatic actions are more effective if they meet face to face. Bennett just posted a photo of being on the plane already back from Berlin back to Tel Aviv.
Bennett pioneered at that time even wider action: asking one of the most famous Jewish "oligarchs" for the "West", to be released from the bondage of sanctions: Roman Abramovich. So that Roman is also free to carry out various communications (at that time he was in Turkey) to contact both parties. In fact (it was first reported by FT reporters in London) that Abramovich and at least 3 Ukrainians were poisoned. There was a lot of speculation at that time why Roman did not return to Moscow and only in Turkey. Personally, I have come to think that “some ultra-radical ex-KGB” tried to poison Roman and the 3 Ukrainians who met Roman, so as to thwart the negotiation process, and insist (according to the POV the ultra-radical KGB, say so, the war continues).
What happened, between March 26-31, was the intensity of diplomatic activities in Turkey to bridge the two sides. Roman Abramovich was even present—indicating he was healed or he survived.
Everything changed in less than 48 hours of meeting in Istanbul. It is revealed that a massacre took place in Bucha, which may have occurred on March 24 (or even earlier). Military actions and diplomatic actions can be very separate or the perpetrators are not known to each other at all. The mood of the (main) Ukrainian camp and the whole “Western” side completely changed. The joint effort that was initially initiated by (ex) PM Bennett, then Roman Abramovich, and then President Erdogan, has disappeared, burst to the sky.
I suspect Zelensky was radicalized after the Bucha atrocities. And to completely Say No whatever attempt about peace like by Jokowi (& days from now: plan by Pope Francis to visit Kyiv & Moscow).
I tried to capture/limit the situation only on July 4, 2022 (U.S. Independence Day). On the same day, 3 depots/warehouses of Russian military ammunition were destroyed in just a day (and even only about 14 hours apart). Gazprom shares plunged. The Russian government has also cut science education budgets to keep the war financing balanced.
But on the same day, Russia itself made progress in Donbas, Kherson, Luhansk, and Sievierodonetsk. Russia’s capture of the cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk/Luhansk, a significant victory for Moscow’s campaign to conquer eastern Ukraine, demonstrates the success of the Russian military’s grinding strategy based on superior firepower and incremental advance. Russia advances behind brutal barrage.
I remember the conventional, old-school strategies of getting into enemy areas. During the Korean War, it is said, hundreds of thousands of North Korean soldiers pushed in "as if a mountain was engulfed in fire" to push into the South side. It was clear that the death toll was massive (for the North side), but they managed to get in. Only with the help of America (Douglas MacArthur) and its allies, the North Korean stronghold was pushed back to the north side, and the DMZ was quickly built to separate the two Koreas.
The number of casualties of Russian servicemen in Ukraine is indeed far greater than the average death toll that Russia also has to suffer in Syria. Even according to data, soldiers born in Moscow or from Saint Petersburg are getting fewer, only less than 40, on a scale that spans the death range of Russian soldiers throughout June. But it just illustrates that the Putin administration is still very easy to take and or suddenly make soldiers born in other cities in Russia to fight on the front lines (Ukraine).
In fact, various weapons that are far more sophisticated will begin to be imported at least in May 2022. Mid-March 2022 (the WSJ was the first to report), the Pentagon asked several contractors who won the tender to seek advanced weapons that must be ready in less than 100 days after approval of the tender, to be then packaged to Ukraine. Logically, sophisticated weapons have been imported since at least the end of last June. The commitment to aid costs for Ukraine is also getting bigger. But what happened: Ukraine was getting depressed, dire situation.
Around early June, Russia's commitment to a direct attack on Kyiv was scrapped, although occasional rockets/missiles landings around the outskirts of Kyiv still occur. The most often visiting Kyiv is (former) PM Boris Johnson (resign 7/7), thanks for MI5 and thanks for Boris’s effort to show-off in Kyiv (just for his popularity amid domestic scandal). Thus, more and more President, PM began to visit Kyiv in person. When President Macron-PM Draghi-Chancellor Scholz trains to Kyiv (and from the other direction, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis also to Kyiv), Russia, whether on a whim, again frequently launches rockets towards Kyiv.
For some reason, when Jokowi, both from Poland to Kyiv and back to Poland, there was not a single Russian rocket towards the outskirts of Kyiv.
Some people, pundits say (perhaps including Indonesian researchers in Singapore), or argue that "Indonesia is not even appreciated by Zelensky, not even posting a tweet" because Indonesia doesn't buy anything from Ukraine. Plain Wrong. Since 2019-2021, Ukraine's wheat expansion has reached a third of the supply of Indonesia's national needs. That's not counting the number of wafers, Ukrainian-made snacks sold in supermarkets in Indonesia. People are not careful, the researcher may not be careful.
Has Jokowi over the past 7 years not been dramatic or significant on foreign policy? If Jokowi (/Indonesia) is rated too low, it is impossible for Australian PM Anthony Albanese to post (on twitter) 17 times in a row with photos, only during his visit to Indonesia. During his meeting with Biden, he only posted 6 times. Important neighbors.
When Indonesia visited Kyiv, the Russian government suddenly withdrew from Snake Island. Despite the reports from various (Western) media that sharply rebuke Russia that basically Russia has actually given up, I try to take the position that Russia respects Jokowi who is trying to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. If Russia surrenders on Snake Island, Russia will not then achieve greatness in expanding its control of the area in Luhansk, Donbas, or Kherson, on July 4th, US Independence day. The UK embassy in Moscow will soon be located at “Luhansk People’s Republic Square.” Moscow recently renamed the U.S. embassy location to Donetsk People’s Republic Square, then, the embassy changed the address listed on its website to geo-coordinates (to avoid writing the new street name).
Last week, Turkiye President Erdogan finally agreed to allow Sweden and Finland to join/to be the new NATO members. with various concessions that Sweden and Finland must comply with. Spontaneously, Biden agreed to Erdogan's request to revitalize his military fleet, namely Biden agreed to Turkiye's intention to buy F-16s. Good intentions are rewarded with other good intentions.
Just like Indonesia. After Jokowi's visits to Kyiv and Moscow, Russia's staunchest ally, China, also gave a good response. China’s Silk Road Fund signed a deal with Indonesia’s wealth fund INA (Indonesia Investment Authority) to make joint investments, helping bolster Jokowi’s goal of having INA oversee $200 billion within two to three years of its start.
I'm (actually) worried about other issues. Will President Zelensky's arrogance, and the repeated arrogant attitude of the Ukrainian Ambassador to Indonesia, who downplayed Jokowi's arrival in the two cities and played down his goodwill and message to Putin, inflict pain on Jokowi, and Jokowi might retaliate against Ukraine?
Still at 11 pm WIT/GMT+9 last night, I read the news (first reported by the WSJ) that Putin is using the food-supply chain as an effort to break international public commitments, and present a dichotomy of support, regarding the war against Ukraine. The total international supply of wheat from Russia and Ukraine combined, reached 23 percent of the international supply of wheat.
Jokowi could very possibly increase the percentage of wheat supplies from Australia (which had fallen sharply in the last 3 years), and boycott Ukrainian wheat, if he feels harassed by Zelensky after visit Kyiv (& Moscow). However, PM Albanese is actually very friendly to Jokowi. There is also no news whether the Foreign Minister of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba arrived in Jakarta for a meeting between the Foreign Ministers of the G20 members plus the invited countries, it could be that Kuleba failed to arrive at the request of Zelensky.
The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is set to open its first office outside of Beijing, Abu Dhabi, as the multilateral lender grapples with China’s strict Covid-related restrictions on overseas travel.
Indonesia isn't the only Chairmanship of G20/Presidency this year. Indonesia isn’t only the 4th most populous country in the world, which means a market for anyone (including Ukraine), but Indonesia has enormous leverage in various international issues. Zelensky should have been able to keep the negotiating room open, no matter how bitter what happened in Bucha, before Russia actually took control of Ukraine more and more widely, in contrast to what the Western media reported. Even those who acknowledge the weakening and/or concern of various Ukrainian soldiers, and the huge casualties between Ukrainian soldiers, on many fronts are actually (reported by) field journalists from the Western media themselves.
"That remains to be seen." - Biden when asked if he would meet with Putin at G20 Bali Indonesia, as Jokowi to be host. (Oct. 7th). Biden also said the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” is at its highest level since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, as Russian officials speak of the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons after suffering massive setbacks in Ukraine.
Inflation is at a 50 year high in Europe at 8.6%, the highest since the euro was created, driven by high energy prices. Nearly half of the 19 eurozone countries have reached double-digit inflation, according to the EU’s statistics agency. ECB prepares for its first rate hike in 11 years. Global oil prices could reach an “astronomical” $380 a barrel if US and European penalties prompt Russia to inflict retaliatory crude-output cuts. For much of the rest of the world, however, the results could be disastrous. It’s likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side. The global stock market already has lost $15-16 Trillion in just the first half of 2022.
Months of war have damaged Ukraine’s infrastructure and obliterated residential buildings. It will cost $750 billion to rebuild the country, Ukraine’s prime minister Denys Shmyhal explain, or assumption by Head of European Investment Bank Werner Hoyer: Ukraine need as much as 1 trillion euros ($1.1 trillion) in outside assistance to rebuild after the war. And until today, no sights when Russia-Ukraine end.
The hard part about playing chicken is knowing when to flinch. What we’re doing is suggesting what we believe is the most effective way to end the war with the least cost. Jokowi tries to persuade Zelensky, but Zelensky says no. It will be costly for Ukraine itself. Until tonight, only Jokowi, President/PM/Chancellor who visits both Kyiv and Moscow, try to be a peace broker, directly.
Live Blog Russia - Ukraine: (click here)
Turkiye, role player to persuade, then, Bucha revealed: (click here)
D-1 before Jokowi visit Kyiv and Moscow: (click here)
20 Hours after Jokowi meet Zelensky in Kyiv: (click here)
72 Hours after Jokowi meet Zelensky in Kyiv: (click here)
Cost of 2022, not only Russia - Ukraine war: (click here)
Putin Enabler: (click here)
Complaint: pradamulia.work@gmail.com
@adimuliaprada IG
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Sekitar jam 11 malam WIT/GMT+9 (Senin 4 Juli 2022), saya membaca berita Paus Fransiskus akan ke Kyiv dan Moskow. Saya tidak yakin pihak Vatikan membaca berita Jokowi (ke dua kota pula), lalu terinspirasi, dan membujuk Paus. Saya berusaha memahami bahwa tiga bulanan terakhir Paus Fransiskus diberitakan akan mundur karena masalah kesehatan. Alih-alih, Paus Fransiskus sendiri (tanpa jubir) membantah dan, mungkin, untuk meyakinkan dunia bahwa dirinya amat sehat, dirinya sendiri yang akan ke Kyiv dan Moskow.
3 Jam kemudian, saya membaca tudingan super serius dari peneliti di Singapura (dulunya sudah lama di Indonesia): Jokowi berbohong, tidak punya pengalaman luar negeri, photo-ops dalam Ukraina dan Rusia (dalam web/kanal opini “OMONG-OMONG”). Lalu saya berusaha simak/ingat-ingat bahwa web yang dipakai, berbulan lalu, juga menuding sangat tajam posisi Jokowi atas penanganan covid. Saya bahkan masih melihat artikel di web OMONG-OMONG terkait “Kamala Harris snub” (Wapres Amerika Kamala tidak datang ke Jakarta saat berkunjung ke Asia— Singapura dan Vietnam) padahal alasannya simpel: Juli 2021, covid di Indonesia merenggut harian 1,000 lebih, disaat “lockdown” Singapura dan Vietnam cukup sukses. Sampai akhirnya berbalik: September 2021 - Januari 2022, tingkat kematian dan jumlah pengidap baru (atas Covid) di dua negara tersebut per kapita jauh lebih buruk dibanding Indonesia.
Dan artikel di web OMONG-OMONG (persis) urutan sebelum “tudingan Jokowi berbohong”, sampai dua tulisan berturut, hanya membahas peran luar negeri SBY (nyaris seperti artikel ads) dan ditulis oleh Dipo Alam (eks Seskab SBY itu sendiri). Saya nyaris mengira saya bukan sedang membaca web, tapi koran The Observer yang dibikin/disirkulasikan oleh Gerindra yang apapun Jokowi selalu saja salah.
Saya tidak akan menjadi Enabler Putin dan bahkan saya marah betul warga Indonesia (banyak yang) menjadi Enabler Putin. Saya tidak sedang membela Jokowi. Tapi saya berusaha memperlihatkan betapa rumitnya yang terjadi, karena saya bahkan bikin live blog sejak perang dimulai.
Per Selasa 5 Juli 2022 jam 11 WIT, artinya sudah sekitar 148 jam berlalu dari Jokowi dan Zelensky bertemu langsung di dalam Istana Kepresidenan di Kyiv. Saat awal-awal perang terjadi, saat jelas sekali Jokowi menelpon kedua pihak, yaitu Putin dan Zelensky (*entah yang mana yang lebih dulu ditelepon Jokowi), Zelensky cuma dalam sekian jam langsung memposting di Twitter. saya yakin Jokowi (dalam telepon) membujuk agar kedua pihak berdamai, dan Zelensky tetap mengapresiasi dengan diposting.
Tapi bayangkan bahwa dalam suasana yang sama (berusaha membujuk dua pihak untuk berdamai), tapi bukan semata telepon, tapi Jokowi datang langsung, sudah 148 jam Zelensky tidak melakukan respon apapun di twitter. Saat apapun call dan kunjungan siapa pun ke Kyiv dipuji dan diposting Zelensky.
Peneliti CSIS Rizal Sukma saat merespon kunjungan Menlu Australia Marise Payne dan Menhan Dutton ke Jakarta pada September (*PM Australia saat itu masih Scott Morrison, belum kalah pemilu dan digantikan PM Anthony Albanese), menyatakan bahwa (akhirnya) terjadi tindakan diplomatik tatap muka, dan diplomasi tatap muka jauh lebih efektif dibanding semata zoom atau telepon. Kunjungan Australia saat itu juga pertanda baik bahwa pada Juli 2021, terjadi (sedikit) ketegangan bahwa banyak sekali turis Australia di Bali terjebak berbulan-bulan dan ingin sekali pulang ke Australia karena Indonesia dianggap “neraka covid” saat itu. Tebak: saat ini makin banyak turis Australia ke Bali (lagi). Sehingga kunjungan Menlu Payne dan Menhan Dutton bukan semata membangun tindakan lebih efektif yang tidak lagi dibatasi zoom (mumpung September 2021 kasus covid di Indonesia turun drastis), tapi juga memperbaiki (mungkin) sedikit kesalahpahaman disaat Juli 2021 yang dimana sampai ada operasi khusus menjemput pulang warga Australia.
Hal bertemu langsung jauh lebih efektif dibanding zoom atau telepon. Dan itu digambarkan pula oleh (Ex) PM Bennett saat secara diam-diam mengunjungi Moscow bertemu Putin dan kemudian juga (diam-diam) bertemu Kanselir Scholz di Berlin (5-6 Maret 2022). Kalau memang niatnya mendamaikan dan semata pakai telpon, bisa saja PM Bennett cukup telepon Putin, membujuk. Banyak warga Yahudi di Ukraina dan bahkan Zelensky sendiri adalah Yahudi. Tapi Bennett memilih datang langsung bertemu Putin, diam-diam.
Bennett bisa saja cukup telepon untuk menyampaikan “hasil” pertemuan dengan Putin kepada Scholz. Jerman jadi penghubung bagi Amerika di kontinen Eropa, bagaimanapun, terlebih dalam hal Ukraina. Tapi Bennett memilih diam-diam ke Berlin bertemu Scholz. Tindakan diplomatik lebih efektif jika bertemu langsung. Bennett hanya posting foto sedang di dalam pesawat sudah pulang dari Berlin kembali ke Tel Aviv.
Apa yang dirintis Bennett saat itu bahkan menjadi melebar: meminta salah satu “oligarch” Yahudi yang paling terkenal bagi “Barat”, agar dilepaskan dari jeratan sanksi: Roman Abramovich. Agar Roman juga leluasa melakukan berbagai komunikasi (saat itu dirinya di Turki) untuk mengontak kedua pihak. Bahkan (diberitakan pertama kali oleh wartawan FT di London) bahwa Abramovich dan setidaknya 3 orang pihak Ukraina keracunan. Banyak spekulasi saat itu kenapa Roman tidak kunjung kembali ke Moskow dan hanya di Turki saja. Secara personal, saya sampai mengira bahwa “sebagian ultra radikal eks KGB” berupaya meracuni Roman dan 3 orang pihak Ukraina yang bertemu Roman, agar menggagalkan proses negosiasi, dan bersikeras (menurut POV pihak ultra radikal KGB, katakan demikian, perang berlanjut).
Yang terjadi, antara 26-31 Maret, intensitas kegiatan diplomasi amat padat di Turki untuk menjembatani kedua pihak. Roman Abramovich bahkan hadir—menunjukkan dia sudah sembuh atau dia selamat.
Keadaan berubah hanya sekitar kurang dari 48 jam pertemuan di Istanbul. Terungkap terjadi pembantaian di Bucha, yang mungkin sudah terjadi sejak 24 Maret. Tindakan militer dan tindakan diplomatik bisa sangat terpisah atau tidak saling diketahui pelakunya sama sekali. Suasana kubu (utamanya) Ukraina dan keseluruhan pihak “Barat” berubah total. Upaya bersama yang awalnya dirintis (ex) PM Bennett lalu Roman Abramovich, dan kemudian Presiden Erdogan, menjadi lenyap.
Saya menduga Zelensky teradikalisasi pasca kekejaman di Bucha. Dan menjadi menutup total kata “berdamai”.
Saya berusaha mencuplik hanya di 4 Juli 2022. Di hari yang sama, 3 gudang Amunisi militer Rusia hancur hanya dalam sehari (dan bahkan hanya terpaut sekitar 14 jam). Saham Gazprom anjlok. Pemerintah Rusia juga memotong anggaran sains demi tetap menyeimbangkan pembiayaan perang.
Tapi dalam hari yang sama, Rusia sendiri mengalami kemajuan di Donbas, Kherson, Luhansk, dan Sievierodonetsk
Saya teringat cara-cara konvensional merangsek masuk ke area musuh. Saat Perang Korea, konon, ratusan ribu prajurit Korea Utara merangsek masuk “sampai seolah gunung terlilit api” untuk merangsek masuk ke sisi Selatan. Jelas korban jiwanya amat masif, tapi sukses merangsek masuk. Hanya karena pertolongan Amerika dan sekutunya, kubu Korea Utara terpukul kembali ke sisi utara, dan dengan segera dibangun DMZ.
Jumlah korban jiwa prajurit Rusia di Ukraina memang jauh lebih besar dibanding rerata korban jiwa yang harus dialami Rusia pula di Suriah. Bahkan menurut data, prajurit kelahiran Moskow atau pun dari Saint Petersburg makin sedikit, hanya kurang dari 40, dalam suatu skala rentang kematian prajurit Rusia sepanjang Juni. Tapi justru makin menggambarkan rezim Putin masih sangat mudah mengambil dan atau secara tiba-tiba menjadikan prajurit kelahiran kota lainnya di Rusia untuk bertempur di garis terdepan.
Padahal berbagai senjata jauh lebih mutakhir mulai didatangkan setidaknya Mei 2022. Pada kira-kira pertengahan Maret 2022 (WSJ yang pertama kali memberitakan), Pentagon meminta beberapa kontraktor pemenang tender untuk mengupayakan senjata mutakhir yang harus siap kurang dari 100 hari agar kemudian dipaketkan ke Ukraina. Logikanya, senjata-senjata dimaksud sudah mulai didatangkan sejak setidaknya akhir Juni lalu. Komitmen biaya bantuan untuk Ukraina juga makin besar. Tapi yang terjadi, Ukraina makin tertekan.
Sekitar awal Juni, komitmen Rusia untuk menyerang langsung Kyiv dibatalkan, meski sesekali roket mendarat di sekitar pinggiran Kyiv masih saja terjadi. Maka mulai lebih sering berbagai kepala negara dan kepala pemerintahan berkunjung langsung ke Kyiv. Saat Presiden Macron-PM Draghi-Kanselir Scholz sekereta menuju Kyiv (dan dari arah lain yaitu Presiden Rumania Klaus Iohannis juga ke Kyiv), Rusia, entah iseng, kembali mempersering roket diluncurkan ke arah mendekati Kyiv.
Entah kenapa saat Jokowi, baik sejak berangkat dari Polandia hingga ke Kyiv dan kembali lagi ke Polandia, tidak ada satu pun roket Rusia kearah pinggiran Kyiv.
Ada yang bilang (mungkin termasuk peneliti Indonesia di Singapura), atau beranggapan “Indonesia bahkan tidak diapresiasi Zelensky bahkan memposting pun tidak” karena Indonesia tidak beli apa-apa dari Ukraina. Salah. sejak 2019-2021, secara ekspansif gandum Ukraina sampai mencapai sepertiga pemenuhan pasokan kebutuhan nasional Indonesia. Itu tidak menghitung mulai banyaknya wafer, snack buatan Ukraina dijual di berbagai supermarket di Indonesia. Orang tidak teliti, peneliti tersebut mungkin tidak teliti.
Apakah Jokowi selama 7 tahun terakhir tidak cukup melakukan kebijakan luar negeri yang dramatis atau signifikan? Kalau Jokowi (/ Indonesia) dinilai rendah, tidak mungkin PM Australia Anthony Albanese sampai 17 kali memposting berturut-turut dengan foto, hanya saat kunjungan dirinya ke Indonesia. Disaat pertemuan dirinya dengan Biden hanya posting 6 kali. Tetangga yang penting.
Saat Indonesia berkunjung ke Kyiv, tiba-tiba pemerintah Rusia menarik diri dari Snake Island. terlepas pemberitaan berbagai media (Barat) mencerca tajam bahwa pada dasarnya Rusia sebetulnya menyerah, saya berusaha mengambil posisi bahwa Rusia, menghargai Jokowi yang sedang mencoba menengahi Rusia dengan Ukraina. kalau Rusia menyerah di Snake island, Rusia tidak kemudian mencapai kegemilangan makin memperluas penguasaan area di Luhansk, Donbas, Sievierodonetsk, atau Kherson.
Sepekan lalu, Presiden Erdogan akhirnya bersedia menyetujui bergabungnya Swedia dan Finlandia menjadi anggota NATO yang baru. dengan berbagai konsesi yang wajib dipenuhi Swedia dan Finlandia. Secara spontan, Biden menyetujui permintaan Erdogan merevitalisasi armada militernya, yaitu Biden setuju niatan Turki membeli F-16. Niatan baik dibalas niatan baik lainnya.
Sama seperti Indonesia. Setelah kunjungan Jokowi ke Kyiv dan Moskow, sekutu Rusia, yaitu hina, juga memberi respon baik.
China menyetujui tambahan investasi ke SWF Indonesia, INA, sebesar 200 Miliar dollar.
Saya sebetulnya lebih khawatir hal lain. Akankah sikap angkuh Presiden Zelensky, dan diulangi pula sikap Duta Besar Ukraina di Indonesia yang mengecilkan kedatangan Jokowi ke dua kota dan mengecilkan itikad baik serta pesan untuk Putin, menimbulkan luka bagi Jokowi, dan Jokowi mungkin membalas dengan merugikan Ukraina?
Masih jam 11 malam lalu, saya membaca berita (diberitakan pertama kali oleh WSJ) bahwa Putin memakai pangan sebagai upaya memecah komitmen publik internasional, dan menghadirkan kutub dukungan, terkait perang menghadapi Ukraina. Total pasokan gandum internasional dari Rusia dan Ukraina digabung, bisa mencapai 23 persen pasokan gandum internasional.
Jokowi bisa sangat mungkin meningkatkan lagi persentase pasokan gandum dari Australia (yang sempat merosot tajam dalam 3 tahun terakhir), dan memboikot gandum Ukraina, jika merasa dilecehkan Zelensky. Bagaimanapun, PM Albanese malah sangat ramah ke Jokowi. Belum ada kabar pula apakah Menteri Luar Negeri Ukraina Dmytro Kuleba tiba di Jakarta untuk pertemuan antar Menteri Luar Negeri anggota G20 ditambah negara-negara terundang, bisa jadi Kuleba batal tiba karena diminta Zelensky.
Mengingat ultra radikal kebijakan zero covid policy di China, pemerintah China dikabarkan memilih Abu Dhabi untuk menjadi kantor tambahan untuk AIIB. Sejak bertahun terakhir, hubungan Indonesia dengan Uni Emirat Arab amat baik, dan bukan semata dengan menjadikan masing-masing nama kepala negara sebagai jalan strategis satu sama lain.
Indonesia bukan semata Presidensi G20 tahun ini. Indonesia bukan semata negara populasi keempat terbesar dunia, yang artinya pasar untuk siapapun (termasuk Ukraina). Indonesia punya leverage amat besar dalam berbagai isu internasional. Seharusnya Zelensky bisa tetap membuka ruang negosiasi, sepahit apapun kejadian di Bucha, sebelum benar-benar Rusia secara mengejutkan menguasai Ukraina semakin luas, berbanding terbalik pemberitaan media-media Barat. Bahkan yang mengakui melemahnya dan atau kekhawatiran berbagai tentara Ukraina di banyak front benar-benar wartawan lapangan dari media Barat itu sendiri.
Baik Amerika dan Uni Eropa mengalami angka inflasi yang sama: 8,6%. Bagi Amerika itu angka tertinggi sejak 50 tahun terakhir. Bagi UE itu angka inflasi tertinggi sejak UE dibentuk. Harga minyak dunia bisa mencapai 380 dollar per barrel jika tindakan sanksi energi kepada Rusia dilakukan tanpa henti. Berbagai bursa saham, secara gabungan, ditaksir sudah mengalami kehilangan 15-16 Triliun dollar hanya dalam paruh pertama 2022.
Kerugian fisik bangunan Ukraina karena perang, secara hitungan, butuh pembiayaan 750 Miliar Dollar hingga 1 Triliun Dollar.
Yang paling sulit disaat sedang pertempuran panjang, adalah tahu betul bagaimana dan kapan saatnya mundur lebih dulu. Jokowi sudah membujuk dan datang ke kedua pihak, satu-satunya kepala negara yang benar-benar mengunjungi kedua pihak langsung di kota masing-masing (Kyiv dan Moskow). Tapi respon Zelensky hambar, menolak memikirkan ide gencatan senjata. Kelak, ini hanya akan menimbulkan kerugian lebih besar bagi Ukraina itu sendiri.
Live Blog Russia - Ukraine: (click here)
Turkiye, role player to persuade, then, Bucha revealed: (click here)
D-1 before Jokowi visit Kyiv and Moscow: (click here)
20 Hours after Jokowi meet Zelensky in Kyiv: (click here)
72 Hours after Jokowi meet Zelensky in Kyiv: (click here)
Cost of 2022, not only Russia - Ukraine war: (click here)
Putin Enabler: (click here)
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