Live Update: Worrisome, Strange Situation in Iran
Shots can be heard in Javanrud, Province of Kermanshah, Iran, around 600 km from Tehran / Teheran. The predominantly Kurdish town has been a focal point in the last months during the protests in Iran. The strikes on Iran are extremely distributed all over the country. No less than 7 large cities have been struck. The Iranian security council has been convened for an emergency session. So far, also no response from Russia (*received hundreds drones from Iran) or Turkiye (*still heated situation between Iran & Turkiye in border). Drone(s) Attack in Isfahan Iran and all other sabotage(s) between 1-5 am (Tehran time) across Iran is tremendous success, according to Western intelligence sources. Investigation Saudi Al Hadath (around 1 pm Riyadh time), Jerusalem Post published 12.24 pm Tel Aviv time (/ 1.24 pm in Riyadh / 1.54 pm in Tehran), and the latest investigation by Wall Street Journal (5.09 pm Tel Aviv time / 6.09 pm Riyadh time / 6.39 pm Tehran time / 10.09 am DC), 3 media at least reconfirm Israel & U.S. behind drone attack and maybe several sabotage in Iran (around 1-5 am Tehran time, Jan 29th, 2023).
An explosion and smoke reported above a building in Tehran along with fast air reported above Tehran. Whatever has/is occurring across Iran tonight reportedly has the military on high alert and an emergency session of the Iranian security council actioned. Many false videos circulating, but verification of a number of incidents and Iranian fast air scrambled.
Munitions factories and oil refineries are currently hit all over Iran. Big flame currently happens in a factory in Azershahr / Azarshahr. Explosion at Military Plant in Isfahan Iran, local media saying it’s by drone targeting munitions manufacturing centers. Iran’s authorities confirmed the attack by multiple drones, but said it was “unsuccessful”. In Babol, Mazandaran province explosions are recorded. Meanwhile the Iranian opposition calls on all citizens to move as far as possible from military bases and warehouses.
Other videos circulating but not confirmed or unusual activity in other cities including Tehran.
some mysterious incidents at:
(1) Esfahan in a MODAFL facility (confirmed)
(2) Azarshahr in East Azerbaijan Province (massive fire)
(3) Karaj and Tehran (footage circulating, unclear)
(4) Hamedan & Dezful (unconfirmed)
Comes at the height of Israel-Iran tension. In light of two deadly Jerusalem attacks and Jenin Massacre between (chaotic situation) Israel - Palestine, Israelis Return to the streets to protest the Netanyahu-led Judicial Reforms (around 6-11 pm in Tel Aviv). It’s 4:19 am in Isfahan or 2.49 in Jerusalem / Tel Aviv. Both President Ebrahim Raisi in Tehran and Netanyahu are facing critical moments in the last 48 hours.
Around 8 hours ago (around 8 pm in Tehran), there was a massive 5.9 earthquake in the Northwestern city of Khoy. There have been at least 7 deaths and 440 injuries, the number will grow. Snowing in the northwestern city of Khoy. The temperature is reportedly -3 Celius right now. as many people have rushed to the streets following a massive 5.9 magnitude. No update about disaster of some trouble about Iranian Nuclear Facility after earthquake and after several attack across Iran.
Back again about chaotic (non-earthquake). Iranian Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) Amir Hatami says the blast was caused by an “unsuccessful“ drone attack. There‘s quite a few interesting points here:
In similar incidents, IR would often start with denying any attack, mentioning“ technical issues“, etc. This time they confirm right away. The reason might be that the attack happened inside the city and has been filmed by some citizens. Difficult to deny when visual evidence clearly confirms the involvement of drones. Such attacks would often happen in areas close to Iran‘s borders to the West & Northwest. But Isfahan is right in the heart of the country. Hard to imagine a drone might have passed all the way to Isfahan from some neighboring country. Also MoD / MODAFL statement speaks of a “small flying object“. Therefore, the attack might have originated from inside, by a quadcopter.
Iran Islamic Revolutionary Army Guards raised fighter jets over the capital Tehran. There are unconfirmed explosions there as well. Iran must secure all areas across Iran immediately because FM Qatar Al Thani visit Iran. 2 Moments nearly in same hour. Blinken has been landed in Cairo Egypt to meet President Sisi (1 pm Cairo). In Tehran (2 pm Tehran), His Excellency Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani meet counterparts Iranian FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
So far, timeline:
-Jan 2023 (no details of date) CIA Director William Burns visits Israel. Talking about Iran.
-Jan 25th 2023, Israel Ministry of Defense refuses to give back to the U.S. old Hawk air-defense missile systems that it mothballed years ago since the decade 70s. Secretary Lloyd James Austin III on behalf of the Biden administration asked Israel for the old Hawk anti-aircraft missiles it has in storage in order to transfer them to Ukraine.
-Jan 29th, ten thousand Israeli set the second massive rally, protest to Netanyahu (6-11 pm Tel Aviv / 7 pm - 00.30 am Tehran / 11 am - 4 pm DC)
-Jan 29th, earthquake in Khoy, Iran (8 pm in Khoy)
-Jan 30th, chaos across Iran (11.30 pm - 3.30 am Tel Aviv / 1 am - 5 am Tehran / 4.30 - 9.30 pm DC)
-Jan 30th, via investigation, Saudi’s media Al Hadath (part of Al Arabiya) confirms sabotage and drone attack in Iran by U.S. (12 pm Tel Aviv / 1 pm Riyadh / 1.30 pm Tehran / 5 am DC)
-Jan 30th, Jerusalem Post confidence Israel & West intel sabotage Iran (12.24 pm Tel Aviv / 1.24 pm Riyadh / 1.54 pm Tehran / 5.24 am DC)
-Jan 30th, Blinken in Cairo (12.30 pm Cairo or Tel Aviv time / 2 pm Tehran time / 5.30 am DC)
-Jan 30th, FM Qatar Al Thani meet Iranian FM Amir Abdolahian in Tehran (1.15 pm Tel Aviv / 2.45 pm Tehran / 6.15 am DC)
-Jan 30th, Exclusive Investigation WSJ (Wall Street Journal), Israel carried out a clandestine drone strike targeting a defense compound in Iran, as the U.S. and Israel look for new ways to contain Tehran’s nuclear and military ambitions, according to U.S. officials and people familiar with the operation (5.09 pm Tel Aviv time / 6.09 pm Riyadh time / 6.39 pm Tehran time / 10.09 am DC)
In any case, if from outside, it indicates huge air-defense failure & if from inside, a sign of significant intelligence failure. If it‘s Israel behind the attack, we‘re witnessing a considerable shift in the rules of engagement & a blatant escalation. Because actually Netanyahu is facing the same critical situation too. But everything can do by CIA or Mossad. U.S. Secretary of State Anthony John Blinken will be landed in Jerusalem / Tel Aviv 10 hours from now.
Targeting Iran's drone or nuclear program are possible explanations concerning attack on the MODAFL facility in Esfahan. #Israel in 2021 warned Tehran was training proxies at the Kashan Air Base, north of Esfahan. That base also made a cameo appearance in training Russians. Although the MODAFL facility was not in same location as the Kashan Air Base, that general area is of interest relating to the drone program. Of course Esfahan also has interesting facilities related to Iran's nuclear program. In 2022, Iran informed IAEA that it intended to produce centrifuge rotor tubes and bellows at a new location in Esfahan following the attack on the TESA Karaj complex. So, these are some potential reasons, but we'll have to wait for more details.