Think Tanks and (Leopard) Tank: Germany to be a Scapegoat
(update:
In Zelenskyy 45th birthday (Jan 25th, 2023), Germany send 14 Leopard 2 to Ukraine, green light for other nations to deliver. Decision by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Cabinet meeting this morning in Berlin. Link statement in German can read here.
U.S. promises 31 units M1 Abrams tanks (maybe 5 hours from now announced by Biden himself)
![Local Election in Berlin This Morning [Trilingual]](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1300,h_650,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd3ee747e-2752-4391-b258-df8b9507b2cc_587x535.png)
Pleasantly surprised to see Jeremy Bernard Corbyn, a pro-peace / antiwar, former Leader of UK Labour Party (2015-2020) supporting immediate provision of MBTs (main battle tank) to Ukraine. But if you realized the German Foreign Minister, very “Green”, very hate war, pro peace Annalena Charlotte Alma Baerbock now turned to be hawkish (*specific about Baerbock & Ukraine, can read here), I try not to be too surprised if Corbyn says yes for MBTs.
UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has stated that a country which operates German-made Leopard tanks has asked for permission from Berlin to give the heavy armour to Ukraine. A Leopard 2 tank costs just US$5.74 million (EUR 5.3 million) & can kill a baddy tank from over 71.75ft away.
Former British PM Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, who led the overseas protection for Ukraine, was welcomed by Zelenskyy after travelling from Davos. Boris Johnson has been to see Hostomel and Bucha the site of massacres just outside the Ukrainian capital. Specific for Bucha. First ever reported by German media Der Spiegel (not NYTimes / Washington Post), in April 2022 The Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), Germany’s foreign intelligence service, has acquired gruesome new insights into the atrocities committed by Russian military forces in Bucha.
This report (Bucha massacre), unfortunately, reported when Ukraine and Russia delegation already in Istanbul for Trilateral Peace Meeting, thanks for Erdogan as host (detail meeting in Istanbul, and then, report about Bucha, read here). DER SPIEGEL has learned that the BND has new satellite images and has intercepted incriminating radio traffic from Russian military personnel in the region north of Kyiv, where Bucha is located. Some of the intercepted radio traffic might be linked to dead bodies that have been photographed in Bucha. Now, the horror, once again, revealed by BND about situation in Bakhmut (you can read here).
Today, Ukrainian Cabinet dismissed deputy minister Vasyl Lozynskiy who allegedly received a $400,000 bribe. According to law enforcement, the money was a kickback for rigging a large procurement tender for generators and other equipment. The U.S. has provided $27.5 billion in military assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion. This equals 3.2 percent of the FY 2023 defense budget, about one-tenth of one percent of America’s GDP, or about $3.50 from each American taxpayer per week.
Pict via Tim White. Tim, alongside me, is very diligent to share about (numeric, rich data) covid since March 2020, then, after the Ukraine - Russia war, both me & Tim White set a thread, link, etc about this war, daily. You can support Tim in his KO-FI
Finland's 12th military aid package to Ukraine is 400m€. Compared to the size of the Finnish economy, it's equivalent to the USA giving 30 billion dollars of military aid to Ukraine in the wake of the battle with Russia. Estonia has given more than 1% of gdp in military aid, which would equal the US giving 205B Euro. Sweden will deliver ARCHER, the world’s most advanced artillery system and send the 10th arms package. Bulgaria provided up to 1/3 of Ukraine’s ammo in early days of war and up to 40% of diesel. With unwavering help - support - military package, from Bayraktar Drone and mediate about the Grain Deal between Ukraine - Russia, Turkiye is indispensable for NATO in the Black Sea region and beyond (*Turkiye’s military aid to Ukraine, can read here). Turkiye is a good example of the need to accept the limits of US power in an increasingly multipolar world. To successfully lead in the post-post-Cold War world emerging, the US needs more humility and diplomatic agility & more imaginative statecraft (*about stalemate, stubborn to set a negotiation between Ukraine - Russia, can read here).
But since Christmas, or Weihnachten, the hot seat goes to Germany (flipflop in Berlin especially during Feb 2022 - April 2022, read here). Especially after (info by German Intelligence BND) that Bakhmut was captured by Russia (read here). Christine Lambrecht already resigned from the Defense Minister. With help mercenaries Wagner Group, Russia captured Bakhmut. Declaring Wagner a 'Transnational Criminal Organization' under US executive order 13581 freezes any US assets of Wagner & prohibits US nationals from providing funds, goods or services to the group."
Deutschland blamiert sich. Deutschland hat ein Integrationsproblem. In den Westen (West alliance, NATO). Befreie Die Leoparden. Liberez Les Leopards. Free The Leopard. Deutschlands Sackgasse. Es wird immer besser. Kann über Ihren Mist nur den Kopf schütteln. Die Entscheidungen und Kommunikation dieser Bundesregierung helfen Wladimir Putin und schaden der Ukraine. So einfach und so schändlich ist es.Whatever anger(s) and shout(s) toward Berlin. U.S. administration sources make public via Süddeutschen Zeitung that the U.S. Secretary of Defense Llyod James Austin III had "fierce exchange of words" with head of chancellery Wolfgang Schmidt & that NSA adviser Jake Sullivan "read riot act" to Scholz' national security advisor Jens Plötner for putting conditions on Leopard transfer. This sounds like a deliberate effort to undercut narrative "Scholz & Biden are fully aligned on support for Ukraine & to make it clear that the Biden administration expects Scholz to move on US terms rather than him setting conditions publicly (which surprised Austin on the way to Berlin). New German defence minister Boris Pistorius, when in Paris alongside all ministers from Germany & France Government, says that he intends to travel to Ukraine soon, Bild am Sonntag reports.
Today (January 22nd, 2023) is the 60th anniversary of the reconciliation treaty between France and Germany.
Actually, some big pictures hide reality, perhaps. How Germany became the scapegoat of Europe - the Leopard saga. A story of false narratives, desinformation and outright hate. A failed consensus, then, Germany staged to be a scapegoat (perhaps). When colleagues feel pressured by what you're saying in the press before the decision has been made, it's not helpful to come to the right decisions. It's good for my ego, but it's not helpful.
After the Marder announcement at the start of the year (Germany Scholz, in January 5th, 2023, Schützenpanzer Marder), a frustrated Polish government decided they had to pledge something phenomenal as well. They had the right thing - Leopard tanks. Ukraïne had asked for them. The announcement on January the 5th by Germany was that Poland would deliver Leopards. The condition - only as part of a broader coalition. The announcement was done hastily, without preparation, and Poland hadn't built a "broad coalition" beforehand. Some nations owning Leopards, like Austria, had done very little for Ukraïne. Export license owner Germany insisted on not allowing it and had to scrape those Leopards together. Finland talked about Leopard delivery, but took the same approach as Poland (coalition).
However, Germany was gladly prepared to allow Poland a delivery of the Leopards. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, the responsible minister, was open to the idea. He immediately said the Polish government could make an export-request which his department would rubberstamp, immediately green light (would). Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Jakub Morawiecki realized he had been too hasty with his announcement.
Among European countries owning Leopards, there was no widespread support for Leopard delivery. Thus there was no coalition which would rally around him to secure a large amount of Leopards. So what to do?
The Polish government simply didn't follow up on its earlier pledge to deliver Leopards and as such it didn't submit a re-export request. No Leopards would be delivered, no export requests were sent to Germany. The Polish government decided to repeat the pledge on the 11th of January. According to Polish President Andrzej Sebastian Duda, the Polish govt would send a company of Leopards on the condition of acting within a broad coalition.
No coalition came to existence because there was no widespread support for Leopard delivery. Only Finland (Jan 12nd) responded it'd be prepared to deliver Leopards, also within the framework of a coalition. Again, when colleagues feel pressured by what you're saying in the press before the decision has been made, it's not helpful to come to the right decisions. It's good for my ego, but it's not helpful.``
Good old France tried a futile attempt to rally a coalition by delivering a symbolic amount of light battle tank Leclerc. British echoed, with Challenger (The FV4034 Challenger 2 (MoD designation "CR2") is a third generation British main battle tank (MBT) in service with the armies of the United Kingdom and Oman).
It was received with much cheer in Europe, but no Leopard owner followed with a re-export request to deliver Leopards, no coalition came to existence. It was after the 11th of January, when the media, twitter and a set of hostile think tanks started to develop a narrative in which they put all blame on Germany. The claim was that Poland would be ready to deliver, but was still waiting for a green light from Berlin. It was a fake story. Poland hadn't submitted a re-export request in the first case. There was nothing to give a green light to. Moreover, Robert Habeck (today also in Paris alongside Scholz, Boris, President Macron, and all Germany - France ministers) had already said that his department would not stand in the way.
To paint Germany in an even worse light, the media and hostile think tanks shaped a narrative about how a so-called coalition - which didn't exist, as Polish wasn't delivering Leopards exactly because there was no coalition - was all waiting on Berlin to give a green light. Germany, meanwhile, had still not received a re-export request, so it simply couldn't approve Leopard deliveries. The inaction of the German government as a consequence of having received no re-export request, was explained by bad faith actors as blocking and stalling.
Support for Ukraine tends to have a comfortable majority among the German public—until we get to the question of heavy weapons and tanks. But even here, there’s no strong consensus for or against. A slight majority in one survey supports.
With said narrative deeply imprinted in media, twitter and think tanks, things came to a head with the Ramstein conference and training for the Ukraine army on Germany soil (since Jan 14th). When the Ramstein meeting started, Scholz was very busy: Scholz (still) in Berlin at least for an exclusive interview with Bloomberg, at least publicly explaining about the Leopard fiasco, then, he departed to Davos. Scholz said he would prevent a broader war, a NATO vs Russia, and try to make sure the war was only about Ukraine - Russia, and pledged he will support Ukraine as well.
Prior to the Ramstein conference, different Leopard-nations had excluded Leopards from their new aid packages. Neither Sweden nor Denmark included Leopards, Spain outright refused, Canada wasn't ready and so forth. The Tallinn initiative had achieved little and was a minority.
This should've alarmed everybody of one thing. There wasn't much support among allies for delivering Leopards - the Dutch PM Rutte had said it earlier quite clearly. It was sensitive, he said, so it wasn't "just Germany". Nobody listened to him. Canada abruptly changed its mind. January 18th, Canada is donating 200 Canadian-made armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine, Canada Defence Minister Indira Anita Anand announced while visiting Kyiv, Ukraine. "Today, I am glad to confirm our next package of military aid," Anand said while sitting alongside Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov.
January 18th, 2023, Debt ceiling debate heated in U.S. prior 2 years of Biden administration (about U.S. gargantuan budget for Ukraine, can read here). But Biden succeeded to green light US$ 2.5 billion including Bradley Tanks to Ukraine (amid obstacles by Speaker Kevin Owen McCarthy), again, following Canadian Anand after meeting Oleksii. Germany cornered. If the U.S. government, with stubborn GOP Congress, no more blank checks to Ukraine (*read here), in fact Biden still sent US$2.5 billion and Bradley Tank, why did Germany send Leopard?
Because in the alternative Twitter/think tank reality, an almost demonic hate towards Germany had been unleashed. To them, Germany was blocking the (non-existent) coalition from delivering the Leopard tanks of which no re-export request had ever been submitted. Perfectly reasonable people lost self control and went into a rage - shouted loudly how they hated those pro-Russian stooges in Berlin.
The German arms industry, delivering quality weapons, was deemed unreliable, one of the many desperate attempts to harm the country. As expected, during the Ramstein conference, there came no agreement on Leopard deliveries. This was already clear considering some countries had excluded Leopards from their aid packages prior to the Ramstein conference. Pistorius could only conclude the lack of consensus would require the delegates to hold talks at home - the decision making had to be delayed. Nevertheless, he promised in any case to make an inventory of what Germany would be able to send. Don’t miss this detail. Pistorius said [Germany] would begin an inventory of its vehicles, in case of a future deal, and would begin training Ukrainians on how to use the tanks.
On twitter, the Germany hate, encouraged by think tanks, reached new heights. According to some, the fact no decision had been taken at the Ramstein conference, had only been Germany's fault. (Before reports by SZ / Süddeutschen Zeitung 10 hours ago about the fiasco between Secretary Austin - Pistorius) At last - one journalist of the ZDF, Ansen Sten, was confronted with the truth, after the American Defence Minister called Germany a reliable ally. The people, who'd been sinking away in the reality they'd created themselves, couldn't believe their ears.
German Cabinet seems to have no clue about how to handle publicity. They should've expressed time after time - no re-export request received, sent in a request, not just noting it now and then.