Xi Jinping - Biden handshake 60 days ago, and now Kishida Fumio - Biden handshake: a worrisome war in Asia.

Intermestic (international - domestic) strategy. Failure at home, trying to get (better) spotlight in Foreign Affairs issues, and also war. Kishida Fumio clearly likes Boris Johnson: chaos covid, disaster to govern, but try to get better approval because (unwavering support to) Ukraine facing Russia. 

At home, talks of a “post-Kishida” era have already begun, with conversation about Sanae Takaichi (*but currently facing campaign finance violations), Kishi Nobuo, and Shigeru Ishiba rocketing in Japanese media. Last December, Kishida, who is battling low approval ratings, will replace a government minister for the fourth time since he created his current cabinet in August.

Ex-defense minister and Abe’s brother Kishi Nobuo will reportedly submit his resignation letter to the Speaker of the House as soon as February 2023, leaving room for a “double by-election” for his seat and Abe’s seat in Yamaguchi. Kishi is likely to name his son, Nobuchiyo, successor. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda would abolish the BoJ’s long standing yield curve control measures when bank policy makers meet next week. Kuroda stressed that the bank’s latest tweaks on its bond yield control program were not the beginning of an exit of monetary easing, but a way to make it sustainable and run smoothly. The dysfunction of the JGB market over the past month seems worse than expected. More than half of Japanese households said their livelihoods have worsened in a Bank of Japan survey, sending a clear signal that the hottest inflation in four decades is eating into people’s confidence. Millions of Japanese are in their golden years earning a living through low-paying, often unstable and physically demanding jobs amid a chronic labor shortage in the world’s most rapidly graying nation.

Post - Fukushima earthquake - nuclear leak still haunted until 2023. More than 1 mil tons of water at the plant are hampering its decommissioning and risk leaking in the event of a major earthquake or tsunami. Most of the radioactivity is removed during treatment, but tritium cannot be removed/low levels of some other radionuclides remain. Japan's National Diet is set to drop masking requirements - Starting on January 23rd, the House of Representatives will not require lawmakers to wear masks during sessions. However, clear acrylic plates at speakers' podiums are not being taken down. The number of international flight passengers using two major airports in Japan during the New Year holidays surged roughly 17-fold from the same period two years earlier due to the relaxation of border controls. But current fatalities because covid in Japan since Christmas there have already been 440-480 fatalities in one day. Of course, this is painful at home for Kishida. 

But abroad (really similar to Boris Johnson before resigned), Kishida’s profile is rising, especially in Washington, where he is hailed for his efforts to deepen U.S.-Japan alliance. Visiting DC and being warmly embraced by President Biden and VP Kamala Harris surely will be a relief for Japanese PM Kishida, who's having a tough political time at home. Kishida is working on visiting every G7 country during January as Japan assumes the group's presidency in 2023. Quite a week of diplomacy for Kishida since Jan 6th. Kishida is already visiting France, Italy, UK, Canada, and finally the U.S., meeting with Biden, Harris 12 hours ago.

To make sure, yes, everyone compared the current (war) Ukraine - Russia (day 325, still counting) is similar with “David vs Goliath” in the Pacific (Japan, Taiwan vs China). SO Japan (not Germany) aims to increase the aggressive defense budget to 2% GDP, Germany’s Scholz postponed it. But, assault against America’s naval power in the Pacific and therefore a strike on the U.S. itself. Not comparable to U.S. interests in Ukraine. Ukraine itself is making its other major war -- against corruption, a battle that's just as strategic as fending off Russian forces. Nakayama Kiku, one of the last surviving members of a unit of high school girls who were conscripted into service as military nurses during the 1945 Battle of Okinawa, passed away this week. She was very active in educating people about the horrors of war. Same week that Kishida administration gear up, muscle up military readiness. Even (feel like) more hawkish, more aggressive rather than Koizumi Junichiro era or the late Abe Shinzo. 

The corruption (in Ukraine) is very sensitive, so newly-elected 55th House Speaker Kevin Owen McCarthy would stop every dollar to Ukraine. He cut off a lot of federal agencies' budgets. McCarthy appeased his hard-right flank by pledging to cut $75 billion from the Pentagon budget to help Russia retake Ukraine. Military spending should be informed in consultation with the Pentagon and our servicemembers. Not in closed-door backrooms during negotiations for Speaker. McCarthy cut a secret deal to close down much of the government and cause the US to default on its debts in order to become Speaker. Rep. Kay Granger, whose top source of campaign donations has been Lockheed Martin, took the gavel of the House Appropriations Committee this week and immediately threw cold water on Kevin McCarthy's deal to freeze the Pentagon budget. GOP's math problems grow in effort to balance the budget with a slim majority. To balance the budget in 10 years (as McCarthy has promised) without touching defense or entitlements is to cut non-defense spending so drastically that funding for domestic federal agencies basically ceases to exist.

Back to Japan issue. NHK poll conducted in the month following major US-Japan summits since 2013. In coordination with Washington, Tokyo is taking major steps to prepare for a serious contingency. Japan’s updated security documents put the capital “D” in deterrence, to complement their big-D Diplomacy. Japan and the U.S. are still far from a NATO-style alliance, which would involve joint commands. But short of that leap, a gradual NATO-type change is quietly taking place. It isn't the North Atlantic and there's no multilateral Treaty or Organization, but a web of alliances and relationships is emerging in Asia to counteract China.

In comparison, for Korean progressives, the Japanese security policy is a serious problem - just to give you a taste of that viewpoint. Imagine thoughts from Chinese. The Hawkish (Chinese) think that the Japanese started (another) World War. South Korea is a guest /non-permanent member of military alliance QUAD (U.S., Japan, India, Australia). From Kishida’s rival, rash defense programs under the Kishida administration look like a wish list compiled by a child. Important as the money is how Japan chooses to spend it. If a country procures the wrong weapons systems, then its defense capability won’t really improve. Japan seems to recognize this basic point. Japan’s second extra budget will only increase bond issuance by around 5 trillion yen ($34.1 billion) this fiscal year, mostly spent on defense or military. Japan’s cabinet approves a record initial budget for the next fiscal year, piling more borrowing onto the country’s massive debt load. Japan’s government still sees overall inflation remaining below the Bank of Japan’s 2% price target in 2023.

The problem about “intermestic (interational - domestic) strategy” by Kishida: (of course) how China’s Xi Jinping responded. Xi Jinping may assume that when he handshake with Biden in Bali (amid G20 Summit), everything will calm down in the entire Pacific. Contrary, U.S. and alliance gear up more aggressively in the last 60 days after historic handshake. From National Congress fiasco (Hu Jintao escorted), chaos in Urumqi, chaos is Wulumuqi (Urumqi) road Shanghai, chaos after ease restriction covid. I’m worried that Xi Jinping will be angry and hurry to attack everything near China. Latest analysis by CSIS this week predicts this (war, China vs Taiwan - Japan - U.S.) may happen in 2026. But I’m worried, it's catastrophic (war) faster. Please remind me that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, with nuclear weapons, is part of East Asia.