4.37pm Washington DC / 11.37pm Moscow / 9.37pm London (all June 23)
(30 hours after started “COUP”, Prigozhin says ITS OVER around 8.20pm - 8.30pm Moscow / 1.20pm - 1.30pm Washington DC) We are at the “this is not a coup phase” In the latest audio message, Prigozhin says: “This is not a military coup, this is a march of justice. Our actions do not hinder the troops”
5.57pm Moscow June 26 / 10.57am Washington DC June 26
Prigozhin share his audio, first time ever after he leave from Rostov, and first ever his audio too after Putin - Prigozhin deal 46 hours ago (brokered by Belarus Lukashenka, Kremlin’s chief of staff Anton Vaino, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, and the Russian ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov):
-it was all only about me and my organization
-we didn't want to sign contracts with Ministry of Defense (Shoigu);
-it was no coup;
-sending love to Lukashenka (mediator);
-Russian army kind of sucks, Wagner forces are awesome
End Translation
Russia Crisis triggered by Prigozhin's rebellion is far from over. Speculation aside about what actually happened and what the Lukashenka-brokered "deal" is about, we are left with even more questions today than yesterday when the quasi-coup unfolded in real time.
Prigozhin feel “he was wrong” and try to say sorry and tried to call Putin, but the president didn’t want to speak with him.
“Peace Deal” included the Kremlin’s chief of staff Anton Vaino, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, and the Russian ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov — while Lukashenko took the lead role, but not directly talk each other Putin - Prigozhin.
Key question is what happens in Russia after the tsar has been directly challenged, and the challenger (for now at least) walked away scot-free. Where is the loyalty of the Russian army today in the aftermath of Prigozhin's challenge?
Warm farewell for Prigozhin by the citizens of Rostov should raise eyebrows. He WAS LAUNCHED A COUP to Country with 14k NUCLEAR WARHEAD, and Rostov (conquered by Prigozhin himself) has silo nuclear warhead, but he leave look “nothing happened.” And the fact that he wasn't stopped in his march on Moscow, even though the Russian military had the means to do so. The army's relative inaction cannot be explained by mere opportunism.
Let's talk about what really happened with Prigozhin. Let's begin with the simple fact that Prigozhin is a criminal and was sentenced for robbery, using minors for criminal activities, etc. A person like that shouldn't be in a position of power in any circumstances.
Unconfirmed reports that Prigozhin’s private jet has landed in Minsk. This same plane flew back and forth between Rostov and St Petersburg, Prigozhin’s hometown, after his mutiny ended on Saturday.
Now Russia's MOD says Wagner is preparing to hand over its heavy weaponry to the army. Another sign Prigozhin has agreed to take the LOSE after sounding defiant in his most recent comments yesterday. Since the purpose of Prigozhin's mutiny was likely to retain Wagner's autonomy and the status quo, it isn't clear if he gained much of anything. If Wagner loses Russian government support, its ability to recruit, and many of its current members, it won't be the same organization. Putin says Wagner was entirely financed by the Russian state through the MOD and the state budget. From May 2022 to May 2023, the state paid Wagner 86 billion rubles and Prigozhin's catering company earned a further 80 billion, Putin says.
His entire unit was solely sponsored by Russia with weapons, ammunition, barracks, etc. But he obviously wanted more power, more money, and his own people in the government. Wagner also had a "small" side-gig in Africa where they dealt with drugs, kidnapped people, etc. Basically cartel LARP. This was not known in the Russian government. Now let's talk about him in the SMO since the Bakhmut operation started.
Most of the Wagner soldiers came from Prisons, 3-4 prisoners to 1 volunteer ratio. At some point in late January / early February, Russia blocked the possibility to recruit prisoners and Prigozhin started his shortage of ammo story, but it turned out to be a lie once someone dug out a Russian ammo usage chart. As we know, a contract in Wagner lasts for around 6 months. After 4 months, Prigozhin once again started his lack of ammunition rant. He was denied the ammunition and Prigozhin decided that after they capture Bakhmut they will leave the entire city to the MoD.
If you haven't figured out what ammunition he wanted, I will explain it to you, he wanted people, that is the reason he kept showing dead bodies all the time. You might think he would have no Problem getting people with such excessive recruitment, but that was not the case. Very few people volunteered for Wagner because how they were treating MoD forces and even their own, simply said they treated everyone like shit. That is also the reason why there was almost no support on the flanks. With the capture of Bahmut Prigozhin continued his rant about discrediting Shoigu and the Russian Army. He kept saying the Army kept losing positions, which were usually recaptured quickly. He kept saying that the army keeps shooting at them, even making that fake video where some high ranked officer says that he shot at Wagner cars.
June, the chub counter-offensive is in "full-swing", Prigozhin is still denied the recruitment in Prison, his soldiers' contracts are running out soon. He starts to start Strelkov level dooming, he imagined people will blindly believe him ignoring the incredible successes on the front, too bad it isn't 1917 and people have Internet... When that failed he decided to make an Ugandan level fake video showing the damage on a Wagner base by the VKS while alsp shooting down a Mi-8MTPR which had no weapons on board killing 3/4 people on board.
Wagner soldiers, under the promise by Prigozhin that they are going to march on Moscow while being granted a free passage by the VKS, Army, Rosgvardia, etc. and that Putin is with them started their adventure.
You can imagine what most of them felt when they found out that Putin called them traitors. They were lied to and partially forced to participate in the march. Most of them signed contracts with the MoD or dumped Wagner. Prigozhin expected people to support him and not Putin and the MoD, but ended up a clown with a tank stuck in the Rostov Circus. Now he will rot in some abandoned barrack on the Belarus-Russian border with no weapons except what he will buy with his own money and only the core 4000 or so soldiers.
After Putin promised to destroy Prigozhin and his accomplices whom he branded as traitors who had stabbed Russia in the back, a deal was cut as a result of which Prigozhin called off the coup. This begs the question to what extent Putin is in control today.
We got more questions than answers, but one thing is clear: Prigozhin's aborted coup has shown how unstable the domestic situation is Russia has become since Putin's foolish decision to invade Ukraine.
Before Friday-Saturday's uprising in Russia unraveled, Western intelligence thought the Wagner Group might be able to reach Moscow - and believed that Putin had left the city. Hours later, Western politicians were wondering how to exploit the weakness shown by Putin.
‘War Reporters’ Demanding More Blood Than the Kremlin Can Deliver. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has bred a peculiar ecosystem of Telegram channels even more militant than the Moscow leadership itself. After the Wagner insurrection, they will only intensify.
Nothing that happens at the top of Russian leadership is purely an internal Russia affair – not even in normal times. Russia is simply too big and too involved in the world's trouble spots - and it possesses nuclear weapons. This is even more the case at a time when Russia has invaded Ukraine, triggering radical changes in the West's policies on military matters, energy issues and its positioning in the world.
And yet, for large numbers of Germany's top politicians, Saturday proved to be an exercise in dealing with radical uncertainty, combined with the feeling of being condemned to inactivity. It was a day full of questions, with few answers – but it may also have brought new clarity in some respects.
Indeed, after a day of waiting in silence, politicians have since been drawing conclusions about what the chaos in Russia might mean for the way forward.
Even as the German government spent Saturday frantically trying to understand what was happening in Russia, reports began emerging that U.S. intelligence had apparently known about preparations in advance, possibly even several days before events unfolded.
Germany's foreign intelligence service, the BND, on the other hand, was apparently taken completely by surprise by the developments in Russia – or misclassified the available intelligence. As recently as last week, the BND was providing top-secret information to select members of parliament about the current situation in Ukraine, with the Wagner Group playing an important role in that information.
In those reports, even as the week was drawing to a close, BND analysts were still not hinting at an armed power struggle or an imminent march on Moscow. Sources in Berlin say that the question of whether the American services shared their intelligence with the BND is likely to be discussed intensively behind closed doors in the coming days.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who attended an SPD party convention on Saturday, was kept continuously informed about the intelligence service's findings. He repeatedly coordinated with Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock. The foreign minister, for her part, postponed a trip to South Africa, and instead planned to attend a meeting of European Union foreign ministers on Monday.
Throughout Saturday, information poured into the Defense and Foreign Ministries, as well as Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Chancellery. "These kinds of events are the hour of the executive branch – that's what it exists for," says a member of parliament who is also sits in one of the parliamentary groups. Even important members of parliament, including defense and foreign policy specialists, are dependent on the executive branch. The relevant committees in parliament in Germany didn't get briefed until Saturday night.
During the course of the day, NATO sources said that Wagner's forces had amassed substantial troops for the planned assault. Specifically, there had been talk of thousands of battle-hardened soldiers and a kilometer-long convoy moving toward Moscow. They reported that the units were well equipped, that they were traveling in dozens of armored combat vehicles and that they also had a handful of tanks transported on trucks.
In addition, the units reportedly had rudimentary air defenses, mostly with shoulder-based systems. As the day progressed, they reportedly shot down several Russian helicopters and even an Antonov transport plane.
When the first news circulated that Prigozhin was threatening to march on Moscow, it still seemed rather unlikely. Even though the Wagner Group had, by that point, taken control of Rostov-on-Don, a large metropolis that acts as the military hub for the invasion of Ukraine, the city is still located more than a thousand kilometers from Moscow. On a dead straight road, through a country at war.
Yet the longer the day dragged on, and the further the column advanced toward the Russian capital, the more perceptions began shifting. Suddenly, the unthinkable seemed possible: a successful invasion of Moscow by a force intent on rebellion. Armed soldiers had set up checkpoints in the capital city. Improvised roadblocks were also set up on access roads.
German intelligence analysts speculated during the day that the Wagner units might actually succeed with the surprise attack on the capital.
Meanwhile, the Foreign Ministry's crisis team was discussing what a possible storming of Moscow by the militia could mean for staff of the German Embassy – and for Germans who are still in Moscow.
By Saturday afternoon at around 4 pm Berlin or 5 pm Moscow or 7am in Washington DC, the situation appeared to grow even more sensitive when military sources began reporting that Wagner's troops were now only 50 kilometers away from the greater Moscow area. Throughout the day, rumors had been buzzing around the internet that Putin had left Moscow. Two aircraft that could have been used to transport the Russian president out of the capital had been located by people analyzing publicly available data. Still, such rumors are commonplace when uprisings break out in authoritarian states, and they are often spread deliberately. And they are frequently false.
The intelligence services, however, assessed rumors that Putin had moved to his secret command center as "probable." Moscow – abandoned? The capital city vulnerable?
Then, in the evening, at a time when the convoy should have slowly been arriving in Moscow, the sudden, surprise news came: An agreement had been reached, purportedly mediated by Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko. A short time later, the Wagner Group leader himself announced publicly that he was withdrawing his troops.
A deal had apparently been reached, the details of which will likely not be clear for quite some time. Prigozhin will face no consequences and is to head into exile in Belarus, while large parts of his mercenary army are to be placed under the control of Russia's Defense Ministry. Late in the evening, his fighters withdrew from Rostov-on-Don, partly to the cheers of local residents. One person even shot a selfie with the rebel leader.
Overnight on Friday - Saturday, the situation remained quiet in Russia, and on Sunday, too. Things were also conspicuously quiet in German political circles. That silence was possibly a function of a lack of clarity, or to avoid inadvertently saying anything that could turn out to be a strategic mistake. Who knows how Russian media might report on German statements, perhaps even spinning them into support for regime change? "This is a Russian conflict, and the leaders of the Western world should watch it with interest, but without comment," said Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the defense policy point woman for the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP), which is part of Germany's three-party governing coalition.
Still, since then it has become increasingly clear that the events that unfolded on Saturday - as unspectacularly as they may have ended - mark a turning point.
Vladimir Putin, the unassailable, has shown that he is vulnerable. That, at least, seems to be the lesson that many German politicians have learned.
"The situation is very poor for the people in Russia, Putin has given them neither justice nor prosperity, only security and order," Michael Roth, the foreign policy point man in parliament for the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD). "This central promise of his rule has been very important to Russians since the chaotic Yeltsin years. But it hasn't been worth anything since yesterday. Putin can no longer fulfill it."
It's not as though the elites have turned on him in droves – not at all. But in a situation where armed fighters were driving through the country and shooting down Russian military helicopters as they advanced on the capital, support for Putin seemed rather tepid.
"This could very well mark the beginning of an internal power conflict," says Roderich Kiesewetter, the foreign policy coordinator in parliament for the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). "History shows that such a thing can develop within a very short amount of time."
Putin, meanwhile, and this could be a second significant insight, has not reacted in an unrestrained way to the public humiliation, to the questioning of his power, indeed to what he himself has called a "betrayal." He didn't act in a blind frenzy or with force and severity - at least not yet.
Months ago, such a reaction could have served as an important argument for delivering heavy weapons more quickly, but those steps have since been taken. Even critics of the government no longer claim that Germany is leaving Ukraine hanging to appease Putin.
Still, foreign policy experts from several parties are now saying, more can be done. Indeed, they argue, at this juncture, something has to be done.
In order to "take advantage of Russia's weakness and the narrow window of opportunity," says CDU member Kiesewetter, it is now necessary to ramp up the production capacities of the German defense industry. He says there is a need for "more coordinated support from Europe under German leadership with the U.S. as soon as possible in terms of air defense, munitions, battle tanks and long-range missiles, Taurus (cruise missiles) and combat aircraft."
Anton Hofreiter, the European policy coordinator for the Green Party, also says Germany and the entire West must now "extend its support even further, through faster delivery of ammunition and the speedy replacement of destroyed materiel."
Meanwhile SPD foreign policy expert Roth says: "This will be the year that decides whether Ukraine can remain free and win. That's why I am convinced that we need to deliver weapons, ammunition and spare parts even faster and more comprehensively." Not new systems, he says, but more.
He also formulates an idea of how this could work, even though reserves are running low. "That's why we have to look each other deep in the eyes in NATO and decide if we can deliver materiel that is currently being withheld to fulfill alliance commitments." By that he means: "If one state sends more tanks or ammunition, can other members offset that? Can we manage this together in NATO? We can only do more to help Ukraine through a concerted action by NATO."
Update 8.28pm Moscow (June 24th) / 1.28pm DC (June 24th)
- Belarus Lukashenko claims Prigozhin agrees end ‘insurrection, rebellion.’
April-May 2020, Kim Jong-un faked death to expose traitors in inner circle: 'He will now go on a purging spree.' Kim Jong-un pulled a "classic Stalinist maneuver" through his vanishing act to gauge people's response and find out who among his inner circle secretly wished to usurp him. And now that he is back in the limelight, it is wholly possible that he ends up a "purging" spree based on the intel that he had collected. "Classic Stalinist Manuever part Two in Russia" (same as Kim Jong-un) about (only) 30 hours fighting by Prigozhin and then ended (anticlimax)?
Hunting Traitor? Anticlimax? Hunting “sentinel” inside Kremlin and inside Wagner?
Imagine 10.40am Moscow time June 24th (8.40am London / 3.40am Washington DC, Prigozhin shouted “we will have a new Russian President (change Putin), and ended around 8pm Moscow time (around 6pm London / around 1pm Washington DC) “OK, Coup is over, please back to barrack.” WEIRDEST. STRANGE.
8.40am is timestamp-based London. Tim in London
Ragip in Turkiye. Timestamp/Timezone for Ankara - Istanbul same for Moscow
There might be a short-term compromise or truce, but I don't think things can go back to normal after this. Just several hours ago, Putin told his entire nation that Prigozhin was a traitor. Can he just turn around now and declare bygones? I’m not sure this is as easy as some are suggesting.
In Western PoV (point of view): Still immensity hilarious that Wagner forces managed a near unopposed road march of over 800km in 18 hours, nearly reaching Moscow, downing multiple Russian helicopters and an extremely valuable fixed wing platform, all while only losing a single truck in the process.
In Kremlin PoV (point of view): It would be funny to see a PMC (Wagner) that defeated a NATO trained army in months of battle, is wiped out in a sweep by Russian Army (Putin plus Defense Minister Shoigu). It’s (also) funny and hilarious how Wagner group turned from a “genocidal militia committing war crimes” to an “anti-corruption rebellion group” in the western media If NATO had the chance, they would arm Wagner and call them freedom fighters.
Honestly it’s really funny watching the Ukrainian side instantly pivot from “Wagner was destroyed with mass casualties in Bakhmut” to “Wagner is powerful enough to topple the Russian state.” Prigozhin think his win (with WAGNER) in Bakhmut, will be create gigantic contract from another authoritarian across the world, then, he ended not yet get new contract for WAGNER in abroad.
But Office in St Petersburg "assumed” HQ WAGNER
(No detail “WHO” Russia in here: Russia army or WAGNER mercenaries)
(Now) power vacuum could mean new players for places like Syria/Libya etc. Wagner is powerful enough to defeat elite AFU brigades in Bakhmut, but not enough to defeat Shoigu's army. What Prigozhin's ultras want is to establish Russian superiority over Ukraine, by sending overwhelming force. Wagner would not be able to operate if they no longer had access to the infrastructure, financial logistics, gold trade infrastructure that the UAE (united arab emirate) has provided. Current Russian in UAE around 120k-150k. Still can’t believe Mercenaries Business to be (worth) hundred billion dollars. After a lot of sanction in entire EU + UK (except NEUTRAL Switzerland, because Zug still to be safe haven for Russian), a lot of “ruble” goes to UAE. The United States has a 5th biggest base in Middle East located in UAE (Al Dhafra), alongside Wagner ops/Wagner business in UAE.
All done and dusted. Regime as strong as ever. No consequences from this. At all. Especially not for Russian troop morale. Prigozhin says he doesn't want to spill blood and is returning to base. The march on Moscow is abandoned. Serious doubts as to whether Prigozhin can survive. Or in last 30 hours just theatrical.
Although Coup ended anticlimax, this live blog still continued
BREAKING — Putin: I appeal to the Russians, the military and law enforcement agencies and to those who were pushed onto the path of armed rebellion by deceit and threats • Any strife must be discarded. Actions that split our unity are apostasy from the people and a stab in the back.”
• Russia Defense Ministry says Wagner fighters were tricked
• Prigozhin claims to have seized Rostov barracks
• Roads leading in and out of Rostov reportedly blocked
• “counter terror regime” (following CITADEL OPERATION since 11pm Moscow) declared in Moscow
Rebels successfully passed Voronezh and are moving through the territory of the Lipetsk region. They brag that they shot down the forward outposts of the "Rosguard" and took trophies" says Igor Strelkov, a Russian hardliners close to the military. Lipetsk to Moscow: 460 - 470 km
Rostov and Voronezh (Voronej) assume: already takover by WAGNER - Prigozhin.
There are Russian nuclear weapons located in the Southern Military District that the Wagner Group is conquering right now. Prigozhin could soon have nuclear weapons in his hands. Silo of nuclear weapons is known to exist in the neighbouring Voronezh region, which lies between Rostov and Moscow.
According to a 2017 UNDIR paper one of Russia's facilities for storage of nuclear weapons is located in the Voronezh region which neighbors Rostov region, where Prigozhin claims to have established control over air base and district HQ.
He (Prigozhin) would. All ultras would. Their beef against Putin and Defense Minister Shoigu is that Russia military don’t kill enough. They want Russia to act like the US with the late Colin Luther Powel's doctrine of overwhelming force. Thus, nuclear first strike. Prigozhin is Ultras. Prigozhin believes in slaughtering lots a Ukrainians more than money.
Prigozhin said that if the head of the General Staff Gerasimov and Shoigu did not come to him, then Wagner will march to Moscow. He is negotiating with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yevkurov and First Deputy Chief of the GRU of General Vladimir Alekseev in the footage.
Rostov is 1100km from Moscow, so a "March on the Kremlin" is a pretty tall order. Many commentators also seem to be basing their info on Prigozhins Telegram, which I would usually take with a massive grain of salt.
Can Putin afford to lose in Ukraine and now to lose by Prigozhin? What matters is what Putin thinks. And nothing in his behavior over the last 15 months suggests he sees the war as anything short of existential for him personally.
Prighozin is a tenacious warrior. But he is no war administrator. He managed to defeat a NATO trained national army through months of battle. But Shoigu managed to frustrate a counteroffensive, without the enemy even reaching the first line of defense. Yes Wagner - Prigozhin won in Bakhmut.
Time for the EU to stop kowtowing to Greek shipping Russia and cut the G7 cap. Putin is wobbling (in last 28 hours). Any additional pressure helps. Greek ships carry 64% of Russia's oil exports out of Black Sea ports & 44% out Baltic ports. Time for the EU to represent the many & not the few. Turkey doesn’t remotely have the number of ships to replace Greece. Isn’t for Greek ships to stop carrying Russian oil. I am saying that the G7 oil price cap should be lowered, which means Putin gets less money for every barrel of oil he sells. Very few of them are flagged in Greece actually. It’s about who is the beneficial owner. That happens in most cases to be a handful of Greek shipping oligarchs who pull all the strings in Greece and - apparently - Brussels.
But in last 5 weeks, Defense Minister Shoigu won more battles (Zelensky admits progress in Counteroffensive “Slower Than Desired”, divisions within NATO).
It would be funny to see a PMC (Wagner) that defeated a NATO trained army in months of battle, is wiped out in a sweep by Russian Army (Putin plus Defense Minister Shoigu).
United States has trained over 11,000 Ukrainians in combined arms maneuver and staff training. 6,000 Ukrainians are being trained right now at 40 different locations, 65 courses in 33 nations on three continents.
Again, Prigozhin is an abominable monster. If his coup is successful, Russia is not going to be a better or more peaceful place. Don’t cheer him on like he’s some hero or liberator.
Whoever wins, we lose. Prigozhin is not a moderate. Wagner and Prigozhin are not anti-war. They are rebelling against Russian military leadership to take over - to kill Ukrainians more efficiently Shoigu does. They are not saying the war is pointless. They just want more power to kill Ukrainians. For those who are happy about Prigozhin, it would be better not to be so happy, because if someone like him takes control of the Special Military Operation, he would devastate Ukraine in a few days.
"У «ЧВК Вагнер центр» в Петербурге — зеваки, журналисты и два охранника." Russia's FSB (Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB; Russian: Федеральная служба безопасности Российской Федерации, tr. Federal'naya sluzhba bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii) opened criminal case into Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin (Russian: Евгений Викторович Пригожин; born 1 June 1961). FSB opened a criminal case into the mercenary leader after he said Russia bombed his men and challenged its justification for the Ukraine war.
Prigozhin says that the council of Wagner commanders have decided to deal with the military leadership of Russia adding that he will destroy everyone who appears n his way. "I ask everyone to stay calm at home, do not go outside.
Midnight statement from Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Sergeyevich Peskov (Russian: Дмитрий Сергеевич Песков, IPA: [pʲɪˈskof]; born 17 October 1967): "Putin is aware of the situation around Prigozhin, all necessary measures are being taken".
"Citadel Protocol" has been implemented in Moscow and in Rostov tonight. The Citadel protocol entails full mobilization of the police and taking charge/guarding of the key communication and silovik/law enforcement centers.
Moscow since 6pm June 23 (or around 11am in Washington DC June 23) really heated tension until now, a lot of police patrol across Moscow, according to several foreign journos in Moscow. All quiet at the Wagner HQ in St Petersburg, per local media. St Petersburg is Putin’s hometown too.
Machine gun positions are reportedly built up at the entrance of Moscow. Not very promising
Russian neo-nazi Denis “White Rex” Nikitin, head of Russian Volunteer Corps fighting on Ukraine side, on Prigozhin drama: “Although we stand on opposite sides…and have a different POV on Russia’s future, I can call him (Prigozhin) a real patriot of Russia, without sarcasm or irony.” The Wagner camp that Prigozhin claims was shelled by the Russian military was toured recently -- likely yesterday -- by a Wagner-friendly war blogger.
Prigozhin claimed the Russian army bombed a Wagner camp and appears to have declared war on the MOD. Just pure madness. Local news in Rostov showing mobilization in the city in response to Prigozhin's statements. Baza first reported that the "Fortress" plan was activated in the region.
Regardless, the idea that Prigozhin is attacking Putin. That story got slightly less absurd with today’s video, which seemingly protects Putin but undermines so much of what Putin has said that it still feels like an attack. It’s still absurd, though. Although if in real situation proof contrary.
Prigozhin completely and utterly depends on Putin. Nothing of what he does is possible without Putin’s protection, and there is no evidence that he has become so indispensable to the war that he’s invulnerable. Moreover, the only direction from which Prigozhin can challenge Putin is from the nationalist right — who won’t like the idea that this war is unjustified. It just doesn’t compute. A second story is that Putin has been deploying Prigozhin to woo the nationalist right, who feel Putin has been too timid, while keeping them loyal. That, again, doesn’t explain undermining the justification for war.
The most plausible story, for my money, is that Prigozhin himself is trying to undermine Defense Minister Shoigu — at this point, that much should be obvious — and has simply overshot with his rhetoric.
If Prigozhin no longer helping Putin, Putin still (can) ask Beijing. April 14th, Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu meet Putin in Moscow, with very happy face, not heated like in Singapore Shangri-La Dialogue 1-2 June (meet the U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III).
Driving a wedge between the MoD and the Kremlin is one thing; making the pres out to be a fool is quite another. Maybe he’s become rash in his effort to avoid MoD control; I won’t psychoanalyze the guy. But he hasn’t made it this far by being uncareful, so I’m skeptical. Having written before about Russian strat-comms trying to create constructive ambiguity, I should be clear: I don’t think this is that. The ambiguity this creates isn’t constructive. So maybe Prigozhin is playing at something that remains inscrutable to me. Or maybe he’s just lost the plot. I don’t know and won’t guess. I’ve said since the beginning of the war that we need to learn to be comfortable with unanswerable questions. This is one of those.
==========END————
Thank you, as always, for reading. If you have anything like a spark file, or master thought list (spark file sounds so much cooler), let me know how you use it in the comments below.
-prada- (Adi Mulia Pradana) is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed.
(Very rare compliment and initiative pledge. Thank you. Yes, even a lot of people associated me PRAVDA, not part of MIUCCIA PRADA. I’m literally asshole on debate, since in college). Especially tonight heated between Putin and Prigozhin.
========
Thanks for reading Prada’s Newsletter. I was lured, inspired by someone writer, his post in LinkedIn months ago, “Currently after a routine daily writing newsletter in the last 10 years, my subscriber reaches 100,000. Maybe one of my subscribers is your boss.” After I get followed / subscribed by (literally) prominent AI and prominent Chief Product and Technology of mammoth global media (both: Sir, thank you so much), I try crafting more / better writing.
To get the ones who really appreciate your writing, and now prominent people appreciate my writing, priceless feeling. Prada ungated/no paywall every notes-but thank you for anyone open initiative pledge to me.
