European Finally Push Ukraine to Peace Talk with Russia, But Not Yet Same Enthusiasm in the White House

The reality of Ukraine's endless demand for ammunition, and the US struggle to fill it. (Plötsligt hände alltså det som alla väntade på)

Something (immediately, abruptly) is happening after the 49th G7 Summit this year ended (in Hiroshima). At least, the European side. Europeans are talking about peace talks and negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. And even mention (including) Indonesia, India, Brazil, and China in those talks. Indonesia 2-years consecutive as special guests of G7 (48th in Germany, 49th in Japan), as until today, Day - 454 war, currently bloody battlefield in Belgorod after Bakhmut fall to Russia, only Jokowi as President/PM/Chancellor/King/Sultan who visit (BOTH) Kyiv and Moscow. No one and only Jokowi. Try to meditate, in candid, physically. 

Just a few weeks ago, that was treated as treasonous – Macron facing backlash after soft tone about Taiwan and Ukraine issue, when met Xi Jinping in Beijing (6-7 April 2023), “treasonous of holy alliance (NATO).”

Erdogan tried repeatedly to create “a roundtable” between Russia - Ukraine. Only 2-3 steps again to ceasefire in March-April 2022, then, investigation revealed about atrocities in Bucha, peace talks burst in the air. Even 24 hours before the election (May 14th), Erdogan successfully extended the “Grain Deal” (access to exporting Ukraine grain’s via Black Sea).

Macron has asked Xi to convince Putin to end the war. France is ramping up its military expenditure to invest more in the areas of space, cyber and the deep seas. But critics say the new military budget show Paris is not preparing for the possibility of a major land conflict, delaying deliveries for tanks and fighter jets to Ukraine, amid Biden himself pushing NATO to send F16 to Ukraine, alongside Zelensky in Hiroshima, in same hour Zelensky (still beside Biden) admit that Bakhmut falls to Russia. The Pentagon is currently on track to increase its artillery production sixfold, but only by 2025. Why the US got ahead of itself when it came to supplying Ukraine with ammunition.

PM Narendra Modi was asked (currently Chair of G20 after Indonesia last year) to mediate the conflict. Zelensky asked the Saudi and Arab League for help–with (his speech) very arrogant not to mention Palestine (in his speech), a “nation” under (brutality, merciless) aggression by Israel-a Jewish state. Zelensky is Jew. The lack of support for Ukraine from the global South highlights differing perspectives on the war between Ukraine and its Western supporters and the developing world.

Not only Russia, hit by massive sanction, currently bleeding on budget. Direct neighbor of Russia, Finland too, for example:

This tells you that Europe feels incapable of solving a problem in their territory without external help.  Sad but a fact. It’s almost as if it’s in the interest of Eastern European defense officials to grossly exaggerate a Russian military buildup along NATO’s northeastern border. Western-armed Ukraine outside of NATO is a liability, says (legendary) Henry Kissinger.

“We have now armed Ukraine to a point where it will be the best-armed country and with the least strategically experienced leadership in Europe.” Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, most NATO countries refuse to spend 2% GDP on defense. “In absolute terms, Germany will fall short of the 2% target by EUR 17 billion this year. That’s the largest shortfall of all countries.” 

“If Ukraine finds that the time has come" for peace talks with Russia, Denmark would be willing to host them in July, Danish FM Lars Løkke Rasmussen said  at the Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels (1 pm, May 22nd, 2023). The meeting would need engagement from “countries like Indonesia, India, Brazil and China,” he added.

Around 22 hours after Lars’ statement, in Berlin, Olaf Scholz outlines goal for end of Russia-Ukraine war at 160th anniversary of his Social Democratic Party:

“This bitter chapter in the history of our continent — evoked by Vladimir Putin in his imperialist madness — will end with a free Ukraine joining the EU as a full member” ("Dieses bittere Kapitel der Geschichte unseres Kontinents - heraufbeschworen von Putin in seinem imperialistischen Wahn - wird damit enden, dass sich die freie Ukraine als vollwertiges Mitglied der Europäischen Union anschließt.")

Not yet (change situation, change perception) in America, especially Biden. The U.S. and U.K. Are Split on the Ukraine War: the Brits have been prodding the cautious Americans to send more and better weapons systems. U.S. and NATO leaders are coalescing around a vision for shoring up Ukraine’s defenses and seeking to guarantee its sovereign future with a security model similar to that of Israel.

The problem in DC: not only Debt Ceiling, but Pentagon itself. Pentagon announced in March its largest-ever budget: $842 billion. Almost half will go to defense contractors. A six-month CBS’ team of “60 Minutes” investigation found that contractors are overcharging the Pentagon on almost everything. Another fraud-using U.S. taxpayers money: “Just US$3 billion”, Pentagon said an accounting error led it to overestimate the value of arms shipments sent to Ukraine as part of a $44bn military aid package approved blast year. By correcting the error, it could send another $3bn worth of arms to Ukraine. 

How ordinary U.S. people are not angry about (at least) 2 frauds in the Pentagon in the wake of the Debt Ceiling.Army negotiators caught Raytheon, a major defense contractor, making “unacceptable profits” by dramatically exaggerating the cost and hours it took to build radar and ground equipment. Pretty cool how the debt ceiling cuts won't affect these guys. (Also) Pretty cool how we have an $800 billion defense budget and the first thing Congress is going to cut is food stamps. The reality of Ukraine's endless demand for ammunition, and the US struggle to fill it.

In debt limit bill, Speaker McCarthy has ruled out:

—New tax revenues

—Military spending cuts

—Social Security & Medicare cuts

That largely leaves non-defense discretionary spending on the chopping block, which is ~15% of the U.S. budget. Here's what's in that slice (per CBO). Democrats leaders are willing to entertain a federal spending freeze going into the 2024 fiscal year. But Republicans are making the budget math a lot harder for Democrats by pushing to boost defense and Veteran Affairs with more and more money while demanding spending cuts for everything else.

Back again about Russia - Ukraine. 

When Russian troops poured into Ukraine over a year ago, many experts foresaw a strategic windfall for China. Now, Beijing is increasingly alarmed that the Western bloc backing Ukraine is entrenching itself in China’s neighborhood. 9.27pm in Beijing (May 23rd), China MOFCOM, on a report that US and Taiwan reached a deal on the first part of '21st Century' trade pact, says China is firmly opposed to this. After Putin-Xi Jinping meet up and high ranking China military Li Shangfu meet Putin (April 16th), now China Special Envoy may Visit Russia on May 26, according to TASS Russia.

Zelensky’s G7 appearance is not only to reaffirm Western support on the eve of a counteroffensive. It’s also about convincing non-Western powers like Indonesia, India & Brazil to move to Kyiv’s corner. It may be a lost cause; the Global South wants the war to end, not see Russia humiliated. Zelensky’s tour is happening as several Ukraine peace initiatives are being explored. The Vatican, China, and a group of African states are all getting into the diplomacy game—the latter will hold separate meetings with Zelensky and Putin. They, too, want the war to end as soon as possible.

Nevertheless, we shouldn’t expect a serious peace drive to happen until after Ukraine’s counteroffensive ends. Even then, it might not happen; if Russian forces lose more ground, it’s plausible that Putin decides to double down like he has throughout the war.

As it struggles to resolve the Russia question, Europe needs to re-examine its identity as a distinct cultural & geopolitical realm, recalibrate its proper boundaries, & discover its strategic orientation (& voice) vis-à-vis a “collective West” premised on US-led Atlanticism. Over time, this might mean the expiration of NATO as a project and its replacement by two alternate minilateral security ententes — one in Western Europe centred on Germany and France and the other in Northeast Europe anchored in Poland and the Baltic states sympathetic to it."

The G7 made a big deal about Zelensky’s peace formula this weekend. But let’s be clear that this “formula” is less a set of negotiating principles than it is a list of surrender terms for Russia (which Putin acclaimed - and - should) ahead in Bakhmut and Belgorod, including a full Russian withdrawal and war crimes trials against Russian officials. There’s no middle ground here. Zelensky’s position is “Russia loses.” It’s not hard to see why. Russian forces have committed war crimes, destroyed Ukraine’s cities (Mariupol, Bakhmut) and annexed territory. But from the standpoint of starting a diplomatic process.

Kyiv’s focus over the next few months will be on pushing Russian lines further east. But if we get to a point where a stalemate persists and diplomacy begins to be viewed as a serious option, Z’s formula will have to change. Otherwise,  talks won’t get off the ground. Ukraine is doing v.well on the diplomatic front but is under pressure to make dramatic progress on the battlefield - which may be unrealistic.

The shadow of Trump is already looming. There was no hint of this int'l pressure on Zelenskyy. The [G7] used the familiar formula that they will back Ukraine for 'as long as it takes.' But the unofficial message is a little more complicated: 'As long as it takes. But it would be better if it doesn’t take too long. Suddenly, what everyone was waiting for happened. The reality of Ukraine's endless demand for ammunition, and the US struggle to fill it. Plötsligt hände alltså det som alla väntade på.

(Promoting to more engage in Substack) Seamless to listen to your favorite podcasts on Substack. You can buy a better headset to listen to a podcast here (GST DE352306207). Listeners on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, or Pocket Casts simultaneously. podcasting can transform more of a conversation. Invite listeners to weigh in on episodes directly with you and with each other through discussion threads. At Substack, the process is to build with writers. Podcasts are an amazing feature of the Substack. I wish it had a feature to read the words we have written down without us having to do the speaking.