Sobering Ukraine

11.22am DC / Kyiv - Moscow 6.22pm

The Pentagon leaks show that Western officials were warned about Ukraine’s poor prospects months ago, yet concealed it. That’s what’s sobering here. The news comes as there could be a fight in Congress over aid to Ukraine this fall. With Russia’s prime in airspace, this war will not advance if and until Ukraine gets fighter jets. With ten of thousands of land minds, it’s an untenable situation continuing the ground fight without air support.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi assured Russia that Beijing hasn’t wavered in its stance on the Ukraine war, right after a Chinese envoy joined a multilateral forum in Jeddah —which excluded Moscow—to discuss ways to end the conflict. Russia still has maximalist demands. Yes, so does Ukraine. Have fun squaring the circle when one of the parties to the war isn’t even invited/declined to come.

The Hawkish in West have created their own bubble made of self-righteousness and they don’t accept you may challenge their comfortable certitudes. Why don’t you let them fight to the last Ukrainian?

Both Russia and Ukraine still believe they can prevail, and that belief is more powerful than any evidence suggesting that neither side can truly win. In CNN latest polling, majority of people in the US oppose Congress authorizing more funding for Ukraine in NATO's proxy war with Russia. But the weapons keep flowing to escalate the war, because, in the grand US "democracy", public opinion has zero impact on foreign policy.

Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence. The war is still going only because people were convinced that Ukraine and NATO stand a chance, which they obviously don’t and Ukrainians are being slaughtered for nothing.

Ukraine's biggest depopulation problem now is that ukrainians seem to prefer to move eastward. A ceasefire must immediately be followed with the formation of prison state. Where the populations cannot go out of the country. Only then, retraining can happen.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

The adviser to the Ukrainian president Mihailo Podoljak said today that in the current situation, a ceasefire and freezing of the war in Ukraine would be a victory for Russia and its president Vladimir Putin.

"Any scenario of a ceasefire and freezing of the war in Ukraine at this moment will mean only one thing - Russia's victory and Putin's personal triumph," wrote Podoljak on Twitter.

Podoljak stated that it would be a "big defeat for the Western world" and "the end of the current global security order".

He said that in the current situation there cannot be a negotiation process, and that the status quo on the battlefield must change. - "That means more weapons, missiles and planes," concluded Podoljak.

Financial Times yesterday published a huge article about the catastrophic consequences for the European Union in the event of an impoverished and destroyed Ukraine joining it. The authors state the opinion of Europeans that the admission of Poland and Hungary was a "terrifying experiment", and Ukraine will prove to be an unbearable burden. The newspaper writes: "Ukraine has not yet entered the EU, but it has already caused damage to the common market."

It is scary to imagine what would happen in case of entry. The FT notes that almost 62 percent of the EU's seven-year budget is spent on compensation for the agricultural sector and local budgets, and the admission of Ukraine with its colossal rural land will completely devastate the budget. In general, the newspapers make it clear that the risk is not worth it.

Ukraine may lose its allies due to Zelensky's bad behavior. The Telegraph UK newspaper columnist Hamish de Bretton-Gordon wrote that Western leaders do not like Zelensky's rhetoric amid the failures in the counteroffensive. He said that the Ukrainian leader threw a tantrum about the support from Britain and Poland. And he recalled the diplomatic scandal with the summoning of the Polish ambassador to the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry because of the words about the ingratitude of the Kiev regime.

The spectre of the far right is returning to Europe. 7 other European governments consisting of/supported by far right:

Finland (Sanna Marin lose the election months ago)

Sweden (far-right but love to join NATO)

Italy

Hungary

Poland

Austria

Switzerland

Waiting Dutch voters will go to the polls in an early general election on Nov. 22 this year too, after PM Rutte resign weeks ago.

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”

A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.

“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress,” this official said.

Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.

President Joko Widodo of Indonesia for months has pitched his country as a peacemaker in the war in Ukraine. But he now seems to have accepted the reality that neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to lay down arms anytime soon. Before war, 23-25 per cent wheat consume by Indonesian people just from Ukraine, a significant revenue for Ukraine.

Recasting himself as global peacemaker, Indonesian President Jokowi calls for leaders to reduce "egoism", early resolution to end the war. 1.5 year Ukraine - Russia war, only Jokowi (among President, Prime Minister, Chancellor) had already visited Moscow Kremlin (Putin), Zelensky in Kyiv Ukraine, even visited DC & Beijing (2 times, 2022 & 2023) since war started. Jokowi has very warm relations with Biden, Xi Jinping, and Putin.

Irrespective of how realistic Indonesia’s hopes for Russia in that domain might be. June 2021, Indonesia’s trade ministry followed Jokowi’s instructions to boost trade with the country’s non-traditional partners by visiting Russia for bilateral talks as well as a meeting with the Eurasian Economic Union. And while Moscow remains far from being among Jakarta’s largest trading partners, bilateral trade has grown significantly in recent years, with palm oil making up 40% of Indonesia’s exports to Russia, “thanks” for EU ban for Indonesia palm oil so Indonesia selling more to Russia, China, several African countries.

Indonesia has also been keen to attract Russian investment, and the two countries have been exploring cooperation on Covid-19 vaccine production. And as any visitor to Bali in recent years can confirm, flows of Russian tourists to the centrepiece of Indonesia’s tourism sector, which the Jokowi administration is desperate to revive after Covid, have been among the heaviest from anywhere (nearly 160,000 arrived in 2019).

Indonesia–Russia defence ties have also long been significant, notwithstanding Jakarta’s decision to drop Russian Sukhois from its options for new fighter jets. Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto’s hosting of the first-ever ASEAN–Russia joint maritime exercise last December in Indonesian waters underscored the Jokowi administration’s interest in consolidating a relationship with a power that has served as an important source of weaponry for Jakarta and many of its ASEAN colleagues.

Initiatives aimed at ending the war that Russia started by invading Ukraine have been underway for months. On 24 February – a year to the day Russia started its attack – China unveiled a proposal containing 12 principles. In June, a group of African leaders met separately with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian president Vladimir Putin to present a 10-point peace plan. Most recently, this month, Saudi Arabia convened more than 40 countries, including Ukraine but not Russia, to find a way forward in Jeddah meeting.

With the war approaching the 18-month mark, efforts like these are understandable. Parts of Ukraine have become rubble. Reconstruction costs are estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars. Some 11 million Ukrainians are either refugees or “internally displaced people” – about a quarter of the country’s population. More than 26,000 civilians have been killed or injured – some estimates run much higher – and military casualties may be four times greater. Anyone who has visited wartime Ukraine will attest that the enormity of devastation verges on the incomprehensible.

Peacemakers are also motivated by other considerations. The war could morph into a clash between Russia and Nato that spirals into nuclear war. The blockage of Ukrainian grain exports could cause food prices to surge, worsening hunger in the world’s poorest countries.

Though the urgency of efforts to end the war is undeniable, as of now the obstacles to success remain insuperable. Starting wars can be easy; ending them is devilishly difficult, no matter the scale of the carnage and the larger risks.

Sometimes they can be brought to a close through diplomacy because at least one of the opposing sides has concluded that winning is impossible, that fighting will only produce more death and destruction, and that the time has come for a deal, even one involving painful concessions.

But neither Ukraine nor Russia has abandoned hopes for victory; both still believe they can prevail. Outsiders can argue that their optimism lacks foundation; what matters, though, is the warring parties’ beliefs. Not a scintilla of evidence suggests that the leaders in Kyiv and Moscow are starting to realize that victory will prove elusive, no matter the effort expended.

Peace settlements can also occur when one army routs its adversary, or is about to do so. That, however, is not where things stand in Ukraine. Russia now occupies parts of the Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and almost all of Luhansk. By November, Ukraine had regained areas to its north, a part of Kherson province, and all of Kharkiv province. Since then, however, the frontlines have not shifted substantially. Neither side has the wherewithal to deliver a knockout blow, either by taking large chunks of land or crippling the other’s military machine. Even if Ukraine’s counteroffensive, defying prevailing assessments, produces a big breakthrough, that won’t suffice to achieve Kyiv’s stated objective: regaining all the territories Russia has occupied since 2014.

Leaders can also be impelled to move toward a settlement by the magnitude of death and destruction. Yet the historical record demonstrates that people are prepared to endure terrible hardships during wartime and fight on regardless. In my three visits to Ukraine since the Russian invasion not a single person told me that the suffering had reached the point that a deal with Russia was required, even if it meant relinquishing land occupied by Russia.

They didn’t say that even at the worst of times, such as last winter, when Russia conducted numerous attacks on Ukraine’s electricity grid aimed at cutting off electricity, heat, and water to break Ukrainians’ morale. The privation increased Ukrainians’ animosity toward Russia and their determination to expel the occupier (This is not surprising: studies show that bombarding civilians does not destroy their spirit.) Ukrainians will tell you, in one way or another, that they have to keep resisting because they could lose their country if they lose the war.

Some critics claim that the west is cynically “fighting to the last Ukrainian” in order to debilitate Russia. Whatever the motives of those assisting them, Ukrainians are certainly not being forced to fight. Nor are they dupes. They fight willingly and show no inclination to stop.

Recognizing that a comprehensive settlement is presently impossible, some have suggested an armistice. This idea holds no appeal for Ukrainians. As they see it, a ceasefire will either freeze the conflict, leaving large parts of their country in Russia’s hands, perhaps permanently, or provide Putin breathing space to revive his army and attack again.

All wars eventually end, and so will the one in Ukraine. Yet for an artful mediator to broker a political settlement, even a truce, the circumstances on the battlefield and the political calculations in Kyiv and Moscow will have to change fundamentally. Sadly, we are far from that point. Getting there may take months, perhaps longer.

In addition, Western officials say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US military official.

Ukraine’s armed forces chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley that Ukrainian forces are step by step creating conditions for advancing. Zaluzhnyi added that he had told Milley that Ukraine’s defenses were steadfast.

“Our soldiers are doing their best. The enemy is conducting active assault actions in a number of directions, but is not succeeding,” Zaluzhnyi told Milley, according to a read out issued by the Ukrainian government.

Talking about the situation in the south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to gain ground, Zaluzhnyi said, “Heavy fighting continues, Ukrainian troops step by step continue to create conditions for advancing. The initiative is on our side.”

These latest assessments represent a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.

“Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time,” Quigley said.

Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will spark a “blame game” among Ukrainian officials and their western supporters, which may create divisions within the alliance which has remained largely intact nearly two years into the war.

“The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us,” said a senior western diplomat.

Last month at the Aspen Security Forum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed to the slow arrival of more advanced weapons systems from the West as reason for Ukrainian forces’ slow progress so far.

“We did plan to start [the counteroffensive] in spring, but we didn’t,” Zelensky said. “Because frankly, we have not enough munitions, and armaments, and not enough properly trained brigades. I mean properly trained in these weapons.”

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-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed. Now figure out, or, prevent catastrophic situations in the Indonesian administration from outside the government. After his mom was nearly killed by a syndicate, now I do it (catch all these blunders, especially blunders by an asshole syndicates) for free. Writer actually facing 12 years attack-simultaneously (physically terror, cyberattack terror) by his (ex) friend in IR UGM / HI UGM (all of them actually indebted to me, at least get a very cheap book). 2 times, my mom nearly got assassinated by my friend with “komplotan” / weird syndicate. Once assassin, forever is assassin, that I was facing in years. I push myself to be (keep) dovish, pacifist, and you can read my pacifist tone in every note I write. A framing that myself propagated for years.

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