A State within a State

Kyiv 8.04pm / DC 1.04pm

Stop throwing the word “alliance” around like candy during a homecoming parade. Pentagon not (current) “alliance” of Elon Musk, for the example.

U.S. doesn’t want Ukraine in NATO. But instead of giving the Ukrainians the honest answer they deserve, we’re probably going to beat around the bush and again dangle the carrot of “sure, you can join at a later date,” which does Kyiv no favors. Instead of telling the Ukrainians the truth—it's extremely unlikely you will become a NATO member because there isn't unanimity in the alliance, so please plan accordingly— guess Pentagon - White House are going to lie to them and continue to dangle the phantom carrot of membership.

Why would Germany spend 2% of GDP on its defense and take the primary role for its own security when it has a U.S. defense commitment and 30,000+ U.S. troops based there? Why are we surprised about the Bundeswehr being such a mess? Germany has no incentive to actually change and become a semi-functioning military power.

That’s like asking a kid to eat carrots when a Hershey bar is sitting right on the table. Because it has an American security umbrella. (Too gigantic) umbrella. With nuclear. These new nuclear weapons will replace existing ones on the soil of Belgium (Kleine Brogel, maybe 20 nuclear weapons), the Netherlands (Volkel, also 20), Italy (2 places, in Aviano and in Ghedi, also 20 - 20), Germany (Büchel, also 20) and Turkiye (Incirlik, also 20). But Washington has announced that it will also deploy them on UK soil; this time it is not a replacement for more outdated ones, as it reported in 2008 that its nuclear weapons had been withdrawn from the RAF; now it appears that it wants to put new nuclear weapons in the empty bunkers at Lakenheath again.

Amidst preventing nuclear war together with China and try to mediate between Russia (China’s side) and the West (Germany side), Olaf Scholz racked up gargantuan business contracts with China, especially Airbus. Scholz statement made headlines & was often presented as weapons will lead to. This campaign effectively broke Germans cautious support for heavy weapons. Olaf Scholz takes decisions “de facto” alone on tank deliveries and believes the US as nuclear power on par with Russia is needed as reinsurance.

The Chancellery's (Scholz's) demands, and rationale seem to be based on halfbaked strategic thinking. As if there was no nuclear umbrella provided by the US already, no NATO Article 5 guarantee and no joint European-American effort to equip Ukraine with modern weapons together - all sharing any associated risk. And as if there was a lack of knowledge and underststanding of how deterrence works - or a lack of trust in allies. Both would be worrying.

Olaf Scholz’s long dithering before sending tanks is symptomatic of a deep-seated mindset that détente won the Cold War, not Reagan’s belligerence. Scholz’s fear of nuclear escalation and Russian retaliation and distrust of deterrence without direct US involvement. If correct, and it does seem highly likely, then Scholz‘s strategic calculus is deeply worrying as it remains stuck in the 1980s without any true desire to lead on weapons. In their meetings with the East German officials, Scholz’s group called on the USSR to respond in kind by 'putting something on America’s doorstep,' include nuclear weapons, because the Soviet missiles pointed at Europe 'were not an adequate threat to the U.S.A.'" Germany after WW2 faced off between Jupiter or Pershing in NATO side vs R-12 Dvina and R-14 Chusovaya in Sovyet side.

But, neither Putin, Biden, Scholz, Sunak, or Xi Jinping. A one person has a gigantic power.

October 7, 2022, as Elon Musk was on the cusp of purchasing Twitter, he was cheered on by Jonathan Greenblatt, head of the Anti-Defamation League (ADL). Speaking on CNBC, Greenblatt enthused that “Elon Musk is an amazing entrepreneur and extraordinary innovator. He is the Henry Ford of our time.” This startling praise teetered on the fine line separating inadvertent irony from absurdity.

The ADL is ostensibly an organization that fights anti-Semitism and allied forms of bigotry. While it’s true that Ford and Musk are both giants in the field of automobile manufacturing, Ford was a notorious anti-Semite who promoted the forged Protocols of the Elders of Zion, a central text of modern Jew-hatred. In 1937, the Nazi regime saluted Ford’s services as a fellow traveler of fascism by awarding him the Grand Cross of the Supreme Order of the German Eagle. Beyond his bigotry, Ford was notorious for hiring goons as strikebreakers. Ford was a classic case of a plutocrat whose desire for power makes him an enemy of democracy. It seems strange that the head of the ADL would use Ford of all people as an exemplar of a genius inventor.

Greenblatt’s comment was a blunder, but, as it turned out, also accidentally true. It’s increasingly evident that Musk, by some measures the richest man in the world, is becoming the Henry Ford of our time. But this is true in ways that should be understood as a condemnation, not praise. Under Musk’s control, Twitter (which he has renamed X, a letter he fetishes and also gave as a name to one of his children) has become a hothouse where all sorts of bigotries flourish—very much including anti-Semitism. This led to a direct clash with the ADL.

The tweets by Woods and others under the hashtag #BanTheADL, which received Musk’s imprimatur, were a toxic stew of anti-Jewish smears.

The anti-Semitism inspired by #BanTheADL is so bad that it almost compels a defense of the ADL— a deeply dodgy organization that is perfectly content to whitewash all kinds of bigotry as long as the perpetrators are supportive of Israel. The ADL often combines critiques of real anti-Semitism with baseless accusations of anti-Semitism to smear pro-Palestinian activism. But however dubious the ADL might be, it doesn’t deserve the anti-Semitic attacks of people like Keith Woods, now amplified by a man of stupendous wealth.

Sad & smart son slowly morphs into mentally abusive father he abhors except with rockets, cars & more money. Often right, sometimes wrong, petty jerk always. Might be crazy in good way, but also a bad way. Not Akio Morita. Not Steve Jobs. Not Bill Gates. Not Larry Ellison. Lots of lines, in fact. But apparently, we’re blaming demons now because it couldn’t just be heinous behavior of an adult with full ability to stifle himself.

Beyond promoting anti-Semitism, Musk is following in Ford’s footsteps in assuming that the rules of democracy apply only to lesser mortals. Musk is as anti-union as Ford was. As Ronan Farrow documented in a recent New Yorker profile, Musk’s modus operandi is to violate safety regulations and dare the government to hold him accountable. Because of his extreme wealth and the government’s reliance on his industries (which enjoy dominance in fields like electric car manufacture and the rocket launches needed, for example, to resupply the International Space Station and put satellites used by the Pentagon in orbit), he often gets his way.

Musk is now so powerful he has his own foreign policy. CNN, citing Walter Isaacson’s forthcoming biography of Musk, reported, “Elon Musk secretly ordered his engineers to turn off his company’s Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet.” This incident has been known about since it happened last October. The new information is that it happened under Musk’s personal command and that he claims he spoke to Russian officials before making the decision. (Musk might also have been influenced by some of the right-wing voices he likes to engage with on Twitter, who called for the Starlink cancellation of service).

Elon Musk may have violated a 2022 Federal Trade Commission order on privacy and security practices at Twitter, now known as X, the Department of Justice said in a new court filing on behalf of the FTC.

The filing asking a judge to deny an X Corp. request to terminate a privacy settlement with the FTC and give Musk immunity from testifying on the company alleges he "exercised granular control of X Corp., at times directing employees in a manner that may have jeopardized data privacy and security." It argues Musk has "first-hand knowledge about the current state and direction of the company's data practices and efforts to comply with the 2022 Administrative Order" and that X Corp.'s "meritless" motion should be denied.

Monday's filing marks the latest attempt by the U.S. government to hold X to account for the privacy agreement it previously signed.

Twitter paid a US$150 million fine last year before the Musk-led takeover for violating the 2011 consent decree.

Multiple people from the security and privacy teams left after the takeover of the company in October, citing concerns about being asked to do things that would violate the privacy agreement. In March, Twitter tried to urge a court to end the consent decree.

The filing says new information from depositions in the FTC's investigation on the matter has "revealed a chaotic environment at the company that raised serious questions about whether and how Musk and other leaders were ensuring X Corp.'s compliance" with the administrative order.

Lea Kissner, Twitter's former chief information security officer, testified that decisions by Musk and others on mass layoffs and other "cost-cutting" measures "impaired X Corp.'s ability to 'put technical restrictions and controls in place . . . around the company's use of contact data to make sure that it was being used . . . for the purpose that the particular contact data was collected.'"

Musk may or may not be right in his view that the United States should push for negotiations with Russia. That’s an argument many who disagree with his politics also argue for. But, in a democracy, Musk should not be able to set the limits of military policy on his personal whim. If he wants to argue for negotiations, he’s free to do so as any other private citizen. Yet, because of his economic dominance, he has become a state within the state, setting policy rather than just advocating for it.

Starlink revenues are far below prior estimates at US$222M in 2021/US$1.4B in 2022. Growth is falling short and that the 1.5M “customers” noted in May did not correspond to paying subs. It makes DoD or Pentagon - Ukraine cooperation revenues key in 2023.

Musk is a plutocrat with near-kingly power. He used to style himself a pro-Obama centrist but has increasingly moved to the right, warning of “the woke mind virus” and promoting Ron DeSantis. A personal antipathy toward trans people (he has a trans child who has disavowed Musk’s parentage) is one possible motive for the shift. Perhaps, like Henry Ford, Musk might also be shaped by the economics of automobile manufacturing—a field whose vulnerability to rising interest rates makes him susceptible to anti-Semitic fantasies about the supposed Jewish dominance of finance.

But the larger drift of Musk’s politics, like Ford’s politics in the early 20th century, is driven by an autocratic personality. Musk likes to get his own way and resents any force (be it “woke” social movements, unions, or government regulators) who stand in his way.

Every billionaire, as the saying goes, is a policy failure. Musk’s rise has to be set against the failure of governments that have been emaciated during the neoliberal era, rendering them incapable of undertaking the fundamental research and development we need in the age of climate change.

There’s no reason the rockets and electric cars that Musk builds should not be manufactured by government agencies. In the case of rockets, NASA itself once did the job that has now been privatized. As Farrow notes, “In the past twenty years, against a backdrop of crumbling infrastructure and declining trust in institutions, Musk has sought out business opportunities in crucial areas where, after decades of privatization, the state has receded.”

In the field of electric cars, China is leap-frogging ahead of the United States, producing 6.8 million cars a year as against 800,000. One reason is that China is not relying on individual geniuses like Musk but crafting government subsidies to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels. The problems we face require collective action, not a return to archaic myths of lone geniuses as saviors.

In last May, Tesla has begun producing in Shanghai Giga-factory a version of the Tesla Model Y to be sold in Canada this year, the first time it will ship cars to North America from China. This is just 3 days after Canada administration (Trudeau) deals with VW, signing an unprecedented contract with the company to offer up to $13 billion (it was Canadian taxpayer money that bought it) in production subsidies over 10 years especially for VW factory.

Musk has indeed become the new Henry Ford—but only because the political system, Democrats as well as Republicans, have allowed him to fill that role. The world will only improve once we realize we don’t need any more Henry Fords.

=========END————

Thank you, as always, for reading. If you have anything like a spark file, or master thought list (spark file sounds so much cooler), let me know how you use it in the comments below.

If you enjoyed this post, please share it.

______________

If a friend sent this to you, you could subscribe here 👇. All content is free, and paid subscriptions are voluntary.

——————————————————————————————————

-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed. Now figure out, or, prevent catastrophic situations in the Indonesian administration from outside the government. After his mom was nearly killed by a syndicate, now I do it (catch all these blunders, especially blunders by an asshole syndicates) for free. Writer actually facing 12 years attack-simultaneously (physically terror, cyberattack terror) by his (ex) friend in IR UGM / HI UGM (all of them actually indebted to me, at least get a very cheap book). 2 times, my mom nearly got assassinated by my friend with “komplotan” / weird syndicate. Once assassin, forever is assassin, that I was facing in years. I push myself to be (keep) dovish, pacifist, and you can read my pacifist tone in every note I write. A framing that myself propagated for years.

(Very rare compliment and initiative pledge. Thank you. Yes, even a lot of people associated me PRAVDA, not part of MIUCCIA PRADA. I’m literally asshole on debate, since in college). Especially after heated between Putin and Prigozhin. My note-live blog about Russia - Ukraine already click-read 4 millions.

=======

Thanks for reading Prada’s Newsletter. I was lured, inspired by someone writer, his post in LinkedIn months ago, “Currently after a routine daily writing newsletter in the last 10 years, my subscriber reaches 100,000. Maybe one of my subscribers is your boss.”  After I get followed / subscribed by (literally) prominent AI and prominent Chief Product and Technology of mammoth global media (both: Sir, thank you so much), I try crafting more / better writing.

To get the ones who really appreciate your writing, and now prominent people appreciate my writing, priceless feeling. Prada ungated/no paywall every notes-but thank you for anyone open initiative pledge to me.

(Promoting to more engage in Substack) Seamless to listen to your favorite podcasts on Substack. You can buy a better headset to listen to a podcast here (GST DE352306207).

LIEBLINGSPRODUKTE click here

Listeners on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, or Pocket Casts simultaneously. podcasting can transform more of a conversation. Invite listeners to weigh in on episodes directly with you and with each other through discussion threads. At Substack, the process is to build with writers. Podcasts are an amazing feature of the Substack. I wish it had a feature to read the words we have written down without us having to do the speaking. Thanks for reading Prada’s Newsletter.

Wants comfy jogging pants / jogginghose amid scorching summer or (one day) harsh winter like black jogginghose or khaki/beige jogginghose like this? click

Headset and Mic can buy in here, but not including this cat, laptop, and couch / sofa.