US$1.5 Billion worth of 1 (ONE) U.S. Citizen, a bad signal would be inspired another (attempt) jailing US citizens.

Last time was worth US$507 million. This note for the late my beloved lecturer Dr. Samsu Rizal Panggabean (May 31, 1961-Sept 7, 2017), freeing of Indonesian hostages held in the Philippines in 2016.

Last time was worth US$507 million. Other case, swapped with a person who actually has a gargantuan weapon business with Kremlin. Now US$1.2-1.5 billion. The more U.S. and Western Allies (plus Japan and South Korea) seize, freeze assets from some countries and or dictators especially in the wake of Russia-Ukraine war, the same enem(ies) try to jail U.S. citizens to get money, and or “bargaining swap.”

Last time the worth, but not U.S. citizens, in the case UK citizens, was worth £400 million or US$507 million. May 2021, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe is to be freed by Iran with the UK paying £400 million to Tehran. 

On December 8, 2022, Russia and the United States conducted a prisoner exchange, trading Brittney Yevette Griner, an American basketball player, for arm dealer Viktor Anatolyevich Bout. Yes, no cash money for this swap, the problem, Viktor Bout’s business may be worth US$7 billion-and very close to the Kremlin inner circle, not counting (how worth) his connection with a lot of black markets in (a lot of) countries. Other individuals whose names were brought up in connection with a potential prisoner exchange included Paul Nicholad Whelan and Marc Hilliard Fogel. In implementation only Brittney - Bout.

Biden stated that "for totally illegitimate reasons, Russia is treating Paul's case differently than Brittney's". Whelan said that he was "greatly disappointed that more has not been done to secure my release". Speaking to CNN by phone from the remote Russian penal colony where he is being held, he added that while he was pleased that Griner had been freed, "I don't understand why I'm still sitting here". The Russian position was that Whelan was an agent and so required an exchange of comparable value such as assassin Vadim Krasikov. Griner and Bout were just considered criminals and so were of lesser value in their view.

Today, the cost is between US$1.2 billion - US$1.5 billion per head. President Biden signed off on a deal to release 5 (NOT ONLY 4) Americans held in Iran. If the deal holds, they'll be home in September. Today's prisoner movement to house arrest is step one. US$6 Billion will be transferred from South Korea to a restricted account that Iran can use for trade.

Yes, it's true that not a single cent of US taxpayer money is going to the Iranian regime as part of this agreement. Instead, US negotiators used Iran’s own foreign-sequestered sovereign funds to secure Iranian concessions. But with Tehran success like this, a lot of countries, or, dictators will follow the path: jail the US citizen. And again, whatever came from, money is money. negotiations mean concessions. An unavoidable element of the entire process (assuming you want it to succeed), and concessions with money, whatever came from, still money.

(This notes tribute for the late Dr. Samsu Rizal Panggabean)

As part of a humanitarian cooperation agreement mediated by a third-party government, means OMAN government, Iran and the US have agreed to reciprocally release and pardon five prisoners."

This morning DC really wants a huge dollar. Beside US$6 billion dollar goes to Iran, Biden will ask Congress to provide more than US$13 billion in emergency aid to Ukraine, another massive infusion of cash as the Russian invasion wears on. In Finland to celebrate joining NATO (still waiting for Sweden), Biden says he is serious about pursuing a prisoner exchange for the Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who has been detained in Russia for more than 120 days, and claimed the process was “under way”, means “whatever cost” to freed Evan. Actually since April, from the Kremlin side has been sending a signal that the Kremlin actually agrees about prisoner swap for Evan.

The awkward, confused - but - successfully prisoner swap between U.S. and Tehran, is, after (THANKS CHINA for mediating) Saudi-Iran peace deal, Saudi asks for a nuclear weapon and NATO-style security guarantee for Saudi if Biden asked MbS stop to depend on Beijing and Tehran. No, Saudi doesn’t want money, arguably Saudi’s ARAMCO is worth US$ 6-7 Trillion. Nuclear weapon and “NATO-style” security guarantees are bigger than US$1.5 billion of course. 

But now, Iran released 5 US citizens after a swap with US$6 billion oil revenue.

Imagine if a lot of countries try to jail US citizen. 

- UK has seized Venezuelan gold reserves 

- France holds 50% of Niger currencies 

- USA has seized 7 billion dollars of Afghanistan reserves 

- USA has freezed 30 billion dollars of Libyan reserves 

- USA has seized Iraki gold reserves

Imagine if the success of Tehran's attempt to get US$6 billion >< 5 US citizens (means: US$1.2 billion = 1 citizen) inspired a lot of countries to jail US or French citizens or other “West” citizens. Get ready for a huge barrage of inside Beltway anti-deal criticism U.S. v Iran.

Don’t forget that North Korea has “a poker card”: U.S. soldier Travis King.

Right on cue. Half these folks GOP don’t even know what “appeasement” means. Republicans on key foreign policy panels are criticizing an unfolding plan that would release Americans imprisoned in Iran because it involves giving the Islamist regime access to billions of dollars — with one calling it a “ransom.”

Sen. James Elroy “Jim” Risch of Idaho, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, shared his reservations Thursday as several Americans were moved from an Iranian prison to hotel or house arrest, a key early step in the deal. Sen. Thomas Bryant “Tom” Cotton (R-Ark.), who sits on the Senate Armed Services Committee, called the deal a “ransom” and a “craven act of appeasement,” warning that Iran would “use these ill-gotten gains to attack our troops, fund terrorism, and arm Russia.”

There’s plenty of sympathy on Capitol Hill for efforts to bring home Americans wrongfully detained in Iran or elsewhere. But details of the deals struck can lead to varying reactions, especially when money is involved.

During Barack Obama’s presidency, the United States negotiated the release of five detained Americans that coincided with the implementation of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and involved prisoner exchanges.

At the same time, Obama’s team struck a deal with Iran on a separate, decades-old military sales legal dispute. Because the latter involved sending an initial $400 million in cash to Iran just as the prisoners were being released, Republicans slammed it as a ransom that would lead Iran to imprison more Americans.

And Tehran has not stopped the practice in the years since. Again, maybe inspired other countries, other dictators.

Thanks for stunning performance in (TV Series) HOMELAND (Nicholas Brody), was executed in Iran because killing “the 2nd highest Iranian after Ayatollah” (in context HOMELAND), so Damian Lewis repeated again in other TV series, which is “BILLIONS”:

I'm about to adopt the official policy of the US and refuse to negotiate with terrorists.

Today, at least one citizen of the U.S. is worth US$1.2 billion (if rally 5 prisoners). Or worth US$1.5 billion, if the deal is just 4 prisoners.

Sometimes, worth billions are not equal for other US citizens.

Israel is prepared to permit Palestinian-American dual nationals to transit its territory as part of an emerging U.S. visa waiver deal for its citizens, in the wake of the Biden - Netanyahu rivalry. The new rules are meant to address the Biden administration's demand that all U.S. passport holders be treated equally.

The awkward, Israel's El Al airlines in talks to buy Airbus jets in likely historic shift away from U.S.' Boeing, yes, another signal of Biden v Netanyahu.

Israel has satisfied some conditions for the U.S. Visa Waiver Program (VWP), to which it hopes to be admitted by October. It must now demonstrate unfettered access for Palestinian-Americans at Israel's border and to the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

"Israel still has significant work to complete on a short timeline," a U.S. Embassy spokesperson said, adding that this should entail "extending reciprocal privileges ... including allowing Palestinian-Americans to travel to and through Israel."

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told Ynet TV on Sunday that a "pilot programme" to keep the country's VWP candidacy on track would be launched in mid-July. He did not elaborate.

An official briefed on the preparations said the pilot will entail a 30- to 45-day period during which U.S. delegates will keep tabs on Palestinian-American travel through Ben-Gurion Airport and across West Bank checkpoints.

That could put fresh strains on Israeli forces amid violence in the West Bank, among the territories where Palestinians hopes to establish an independent state have faltered amid an almost decade-old impasse in U.S.-sponsored peace talks.

The Biden administration has also locked horns with Israel's government over Jewish settlement policies in the West Bank.

The pilot will test access not only for U.S.-domiciled Palestinian-Americans but also for those based in the West Bank.

"If you're a Palestinian-American living in Ramallah, this means you can spend up to 90 days in Tel Aviv (on an Israeli entry visa)," the official, who declined to be identified by name or nationality, told Reuters.

Asked how it would accommodate the pilot, the Israeli military referred Reuters to Israel's Interior Ministry, which did not immediately respond.

In an estimate that it says is based in part on U.S. census data, the Arab American Institute Foundation puts the number of Palestinian-descended Americans at between 122,500 and 220,000.

Between 45,000 and 60,000 of them are in the West Bank, the official briefed on the VWP preparations said, adding that the pilot will not apply to the Islamist Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip, where a few hundred Palestinian-Americans live.

An elderly Palestinian with US citizenship, Omar, died of a heart attack (January 2022) morning after he was violently detained by Israeli soldiers during a raid on Jaljulia village, north of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, his family said. No one was held accountable until today. 

It's been a year since Palestinian American Shireen Abu Akleh was killed reporting on an Israeli raid in the West Bank. Israel never prosecuted anyone and her family still seeks accountability.

*The Author was lured to get “Green Card”

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-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed. Now figure out, or, prevent catastrophic situations in the Indonesian administration from outside the government. After his mom was nearly killed by a syndicate, now I do it (catch all these blunders, especially blunders by an asshole syndicates) for free. Writer actually facing 12 years attack-simultaneously (physically terror, cyberattack terror) by his (ex) friend in IR UGM / HI UGM (all of them actually indebted to me, at least get a very cheap book). 2 times, my mom nearly got assassinated by my friend with “komplotan” / weird syndicate. Once assassin, forever is assassin, that I was facing in years. I push myself to be (keep) dovish, pacifist, and you can read my pacifist tone in every note I write. A framing that myself propagated for years.

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