When Netanyahu Blackmail Biden

11.57am Tel Aviv / 4.57am Washington DC / 10.57am Berlin / 9.57am London

Only Netanyahu (or last time the Thai government) faced a massive protest (minimum 60k protesters / day) until 26th week consecutively and still counting). Only Netanyahu, a person on earth, decided to blackmail Biden after Biden postponed several funding to Israel and after Biden felt disappointed about “overhaul” of the judicial system in Israel.

Also Netanyahu, in candid - exclusive interview, refuses to help Ukraine. Zelensky is the same as Netanyahu and even U.S. Secretary of State Blinken : Jewish.  

Awkward: last time, Tel Aviv itself worried about “China influence” in the Middle East. Syria and Saudi. Syria and the UAE. Iran and Saudi. Iran and the UAE. Egypt and Turkey. Saudi and the Houthis. Oman mediating. Qatar mediating. Iraq mediating. Lots of diplomacy going on in the Middle East right now, thanks to tireless former Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, at least April 2022-December 2022 (before being replaced by Qin Gang) to mediate two of the (original) biggest powers in the Middle East: Iran - Saudi. After the Iran - Saudi deal to peace, every muslim country in the Middle East agreed to peace with each other too, and Israel felt isolated. Especially when China agrees to help Palestine mediating with Israel, if “7 decades blindside” US approach about Palestine - Israel never ever (forever) makes a peace. 

When Middle East countries are consolidating, do you think the West could afford to choose Israel over the rest of the Middle East? The U.S. will have to either Ukraine or ditch Israel. The most important thing for Israel now is to obtain some strategic autonomous. The future is an union with Arabs, not an outpost of U.S.Nations do extraordinary things to survive, you will invent values and discover theology to justify this union, so don't worry about that. Bibi is too wedded to the settler movement, who currently show the muscle in the midst of unioning Arab (peace each other). But most Israelis aren't, so it would put him (Bibi Netanyahu) in a bind.

Now, Netanyahu himself has decided to go to Beijing, after a spat with Biden. A mere 10 years ago if you'd heard the Israeli government would signal America it "had other options" by referring to China, you'd have thought it was some sort of joke. Impressive how fast things are evolving. DC is well aware, after all Israel provides China a look at most every weapons system and intelligence product we give them. Bibi is mistaken if he thinks the US needs him more than he needs U.S.. Never seen a country throw a tantrum because another isn't showing, yet gives them billions of dollars a year. Israel is run by sycophants. And because Xi Jinping knows this is an act, he'll play coy but I doubt much will come from it.

At a certain point the U.S. must realize it’s investments in Israel have blown up in its face. It’s time to end this relationship. Let Israel prove it can actually survive without the US as its patron. What if Biden called MBS' bluff and offered to recognize Palestinian statehood in return for Saudi normalization with Israel? MBS gets a win, so does Biden, and Bibi would have to choose between opposing US recognition of Palestine or a deal with Saudi Arabia.

Netanyahu plans to visit Beijing and meet with Xi Jinping next July 2023, or, awkwardly, 1 year after Biden visits Jeddah and Tel Aviv.. Senior Israeli officials said, in response to the ongoing boycott imposed on Bibi by the Biden admin, the visit would send a message to Washington that Netanyahu has other options. Netanyahu won't wait around for a White House invitation that never comes; he operates through multiple channels. China has recently become very involved in Middle Eastern affairs, and the PM should be there to represent Israel's interests."

China was the one who mediated between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is expected that Netanyahu will try to improve relations with Saudi Arabia through Chinese influence, which may irritate Washington. China has become involved in the Palestinian issue as well. Last week, [Xi] presented a new Chinese plan for peace between Israel and the Palestinians to the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), who was in Beijing on an official visit. Netanyahu's unexpected move is unconventional. However, President Yitzhak Herzog will visit the White House in three weeks, which may help to balance the picture of relations with Washington. The degree that the Zionist lobby interests can capture US foreign policy. The last thing the US needs is to add this huge spurious 'ask' to its already extensive list of 'asks'. It just gives MBS more leverage.

In March 2017, Netanyahu made his last trip to China, when the PM led a sizable business delegation. The present-day political context is different: China wants to use the visit to signal its involvement in the region and a change in its attitude toward Israel. Bibi wants to curb the judiciary, against the ideology of the rainbow coalition, this is why multipolarity is so important for international right wing causes.

Former IDF military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, who is believed to be close with parts of the American defense establishment, said the move appeared to be aimed at imitating Saudi Arabia, after China brokered a rapprochement between the kingdom and Iran — an agreement seen as a signal by Riyadh that it has other diplomatic options as the US pivots away from the Middle East.

“This is a step that will harm Israeli interests and not advance them,” Yadlin wrote in a series of tweets. “If someone in the prime minister’s circle thinks it’s smart to act like [Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed] bin Salman and travel to China to annoy Biden and show him that Israel has another strategic option, he’s making a serious mistake and doesn’t understand the importance of the competition between the geopolitical superpowers of the 21st century.״

Yadlin noted that unlike Israel, Saudi Arabia doesn’t receive billions annually in US military assistance; doesn’t depend on an American veto at the UN Security Council; is not reliant on US financial guarantees; and does not have the most advanced American weapons systems.

“Israel needs the Biden administration to advance its strategic goals: preventing Iran from [obtaining] nuclear weapons and adding Saudi Arabia to the circle of normalization,” he said, referring to a potential peace deal between Jerusalem and Riyadh.

If the cost of an Israel-Saudi normalization deal is a U.S. security guarantee for Riyadh, then count me out. The reward isn’t worth the cost. The last thing the U.S. should be doing in the region is serving as de-facto security guards for the royal family. MBS is shrewd. He obviously knows the U.S. desperately wants an Israel-Saudi deal and is going to link such an eventuality to extremely steep U.S. concessions. It’s what I would do under similar circumstances. Can’t blame MBS for trying.

The Biden admin has argued the US has a national security interest in brokering Saudi-Israel normalization. They’re wrong. There is no strategic incentive for the US to grant policy concessions and/or increase security commitments to Saudi for normalizing relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia does not require an incentive to formally normalize relations with Israel. Though Israel and Saudi Arabia do not formally maintain diplomatic relations, this has not prevented the two from working together towards shared strategic objectives. 

Saudi Arabia seeks to pressure the US into providing policy concessions and increased security commitments for Riyadh in return for formally normalizing relations with a country with which they are already strategically aligned. This is part of a deliberate strategy by Saudi Crown Prince MbS to exploit growing fears in Washington that the U.S. is losing influence in the Middle East, particularly as other actors such as China are expanding their own regional presence. Saudi Arabia continues to pursue policies that are in direct conflict with the interests (and values) of the US. Such reckless caving to Saudi demands would likely embolden Riyadh’s repressive and aggressive domestic and foreign policies. 

MbS hopes to hold out for as many concessions as possible, knowing that officials in Washington are desperate to chalk up perceived wins in the region. Instead of advancing US interests increased security commitments to Saudi Arabia for normalizing relations with Israel would further solidify US support for the underlying sources of regional instability within the Middle East. The Abraham Accords represent the formalization of a coercive political, economic, and security order designed to maintain the status quo in the region. They are a top-down mechanism designed to advance the interests of regional political elites and, presumably, the United States. Previous normalizations between Israel and other Arab states resulted in these actors obtaining considerable policy concessions for joining the Abraham Accords without any serious debate as to whether such tradeoffs are in the interests of the US. 

Back to Yadlin. The retired general Yadlin stressed that China regularly votes against Israel at the UN, is a longtime supporter of the Palestinians and has a “strategic alliance” with Iran. He also said China cannot match the US in terms of “security, strategic and operational cooperation,” while highlighting previous Israeli commitments not to sell advanced weaponry to China over concerns it could contain American technology.

“The Israeli signal is a bluff that isn’t expected to improve Israel’s position vis-à-vis Washington,” added Yadlin, who is also a former head of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University. “The prime minister has much stronger cards [to play] in order to put ties with the US back on track.”

Yadlin also said during an interview with Army Radio Tuesday that he had spoken with “a very senior” Biden administration official who shrugged off Netanyahu’s planned trip.

“If the prime minister wants a serious diplomatic process with Chinese mediation, we’re in favor,” he quoted the official as saying, referring to Beijing’s offers to broker Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

Tamir Hayman, the director of the Institute for National Security Studies, said Tuesday that such a visit would be a “serious mistake.” Hayman, a former IDF intelligence chief, wrote on Twitter that such a trip by Netanyahu is “terrible timing both tactically and strategically,” adding that: “The special relationship with the US is in danger. This act could definitely cause damage.”

Opposition MK Ram Ben Barak of the Yesh Atid party said the trip would be a “strategic mistake of the first order.”

“We don’t have the privilege of doing this, definitely not these days. The US is an ally with whom we share not only interests but also values,” Ben Barak, a former No. 2 in the Mossad intelligence agency, wrote on Twitter.

MK Danny Danon, one of Netanyahu’s most vocal critics in his ruling Likud party and a former ambassador to the United Nations, told Kol Barama radio that he would advise the premier to hold off on meeting Xi.

Additionally, unnamed Israeli officials ripped Netanyahu’s proposed visit in remarks to Army Radio, calling it a “dangerous risk” and slamming the premier’s conduct as “crazy.”

“Israel is liable to become a pawn in the cold war between China and the US,” one of them said.

US President Joe Biden meets then-opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu (right) at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem, July 14, 2022. At left is Secretary of State Antony Blinken; 2nd-left is US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides. (GPO)

Planning for the trip came as ties between Jerusalem and Washington have suffered under the current government, with the Biden administration increasingly outspoken in its criticism of Israeli policies. Despite the displeasure, the US has taken little action against Israel besides the lack of an invite for Netanyahu.

While aimed at getting Biden’s attention, the visit could also potentially put Netanyahu at odds with Republicans who have taken a more hawkish stance toward China. While addressing the Knesset last month, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy slammed China over its trade practices and human rights record, leading the Chinese embassy to accuse him of seeking “to sow discord” in Beijing’s relations with Jerusalem.

Under successive administrations, Washington has expressed concern regarding Israel’s warming economic ties with China, with a US government official calling in December for Jerusalem to take greater action to defend the local tech industry from Chinese influence.

But despite a US-China trade war that has ebbed and flowed in recent years under both the Trump and Biden administrations, Israel and China have seen warming relations and more interest in Israeli innovations, especially in medical tech, robotics, food tech and artificial intelligence.

Washington’s main concerns lie in potential dual-usage technologies, where various technologies would have both civilian and military applications. At the same time, Israel has regulations in place to prevent the sale of sensitive military-related technology to China (and other countries), following a 1990s deal in which Israel had to scrap the sale of advanced airborne radar systems to China amid fierce US opposition.

=========END————

Thank you, as always, for reading. If you have anything like a spark file, or master thought list (spark file sounds so much cooler), let me know how you use it in the comments below.

If you enjoyed this post, please share it.

If a friend sent this to you, you could subscribe here 👇. All content is free, and paid subscriptions are voluntary.

————

-prada- (Adi Mulia Pradana) is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed.

(Very rare compliment and initiative pledge. Thank you. Yes, even a lot of people associated me PRAVDA, not part of MIUCCIA PRADA. I’m literally asshole on debate, since in college). Especially tonight heated between Putin and Prigozhin.

========

Thanks for reading Prada’s Newsletter. I was lured, inspired by someone writer, his post in LinkedIn months ago, “Currently after a routine daily writing newsletter in the last 10 years, my subscriber reaches 100,000. Maybe one of my subscribers is your boss.”  After I get followed / subscribed by (literally) prominent AI and prominent Chief Product and Technology of mammoth global media (both: Sir, thank you so much), I try crafting more / better writing.

To get the ones who really appreciate your writing, and now prominent people appreciate my writing, priceless feeling. Prada ungated/no paywall every notes-but thank you for anyone open initiative pledge to me.

(Promoting to more engage in Substack) Seamless to listen to your favorite podcasts on Substack. You can buy a better headset to listen to a podcast here (GST DE352306207). Listeners on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, or Pocket Casts simultaneously. podcasting can transform more of a conversation. Invite listeners to weigh in on episodes directly with you and with each other through discussion threads. At Substack, the process is to build with writers. Podcasts are an amazing feature of the Substack. I wish it had a feature to read the words we have written down without us having to do the speaking. Thanks for reading Prada’s Newsletter.