What If Erdogan Lose Election? What Next For Turkiye?
Trilingual Turkish-Deutsch-English
Traders are ramping up protection against turmoil in the Turkish lira a week before Turkiye’s elections. A slew of upcoming elections is adding pressure on flailing bonds, stocks and currencies.
No matter who wins Turkiye's elections, answers to key diplomatic and economic questions could be more blurred than battle lines suggest. Yesterday, Erdogan hiked public sector employee salaries by 45% just days before the election. Newly formed parliament could affect the presidential elections.
Many of Turkiye’s 5 million first-time voters, who have never seen their country without Erdogan, are expressing hope for a change in this weekend's elections. An election loss for Recep Tayyip Erdogan would not just be the end of an era. It would initiate enormous upheaval in Turkey, with loud reverberations in the region and around the world. Turkiye, Russia, Iran, Syria foreign ministers will meet in Moscow today (May 10th). Obviously, this is being done 4 days ahead of elections to give the impression that Erdogan is cooking something on Syrian refugees, a key demand by the Turkish voters.
Latest poll by POLITICO (owned by Axel Springer Germany):
First round
Kilicdaroglu: 49%
Erdogan: 45%
Ince: 2%
Ogan: 2%
Second round
Kilicdaroglu: 50%
Erdogan: 50%
Erdoğan's main rival Kılıçdaroğlu: people-centered, calls for new beginnings and change after 20 years of Erdoğan/AKP rule. "Haydi" - "Let's go" is the slogan.
Like or not, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is the international statesman of the moment. Greeted as a rock star in Egypt and other countries transformed by the Arab Spring, set a diplomatic relation with Israel, “Grain Deal” in the wake prolonged war Russia-Ukraine, Erdogan looms like a colossus over the Middle East. In recent weeks, he has been one of the most vocal world leaders to back the Palestinian statehood bid at the United Nations. (Still) popular at home, both Turkiye’s economy and geopolitical footprint have been growing noticeably.
===
Rejim altında hakaret davaları muhalif sesleri kısmak ve gözdağı vermek için çok kullanışlı bir yöntem haline geldi ve sadece Erdoğan değil, iktidarın makbul kabul ettiği başka şahsiyetler tarafından da sistematik şekilde kullanılıyor. Umarım bu seçimle son bulacak. Erdoğan'ın parti devleti kaybedeceğini biliyor. Millet ittifakı da kazanacağını. İlk Turda Bitirelim. Haydi. Pazar günü yapılacak seçimlerde Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın siyasi geleceği belirlenecek. Yurtdışında yaşayan Türkler bu akşama kadar oy kullanabilecek. Berlin'den izlenimler.
===
Bei den Wahlen in der Türkei am Sonntag geht es auch um die politische Zukunft von Präsident Erdoğan. Türkische Staatsbürger im Ausland können noch heute ihre Stimme abgeben. Eindrücke aus Berlin. Präsidentschaftswahlen am 14. Mai nicht heraushalten und rufen offen zur Abwahl von Präsident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan auf. Erstmals könnte der türkische Staatspräsident Recep Tayyip Erdoğan abgewählt werden. Wie konnte es dazu kommen? Eine Reise zu enttäuschten Anhängern, verarmten Aufsteigern und jungen Wählern – und seinem Herausforderer.
(Promoting to more engage in Substack) Seamless to listen to your favorite podcasts on Substack. You can buy a better headset to listen to a podcast here (GST DE352306207). Listeners on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, or Pocket Casts simultaneously. podcasting can transform more of a conversation. Invite listeners to weigh in on episodes directly with you and with each other through discussion threads. At Substack, the process is to build with writers. Podcasts are an amazing feature of the Substack. I wish it had a feature to read the words we have written down without us having to do the speaking.
