BRICS and G20: No Plan about New US Embassy in IKN Capital, Indonesia “Less Strategic”, India More Successful for “Rowing Between Two Reef, Kill Two Birds with One Stone.
BRICS and G20: No Plan about New US Embassy in IKN Capital, Indonesia “Less Strategic”, India More Successful for “Rowing Between Two Reef, Kill Two Birds with One Stone.
For my lecture in IR (International Relations) UGM (Universitas Gadjah Mada)
11.39pm New Delhi / 2.09pm Washington DC
The ASEAN Summit already finished 80 hours ago. (Peak of) The G20 Summit in New Delhi already finished 13 hours ago. Biden already goes to Hanoi. Biden, who largely sat out of his generation's defining war in Vietnam, didn’t protest or fight for Vietnam, tries to elevate ties with Hanoi next Monday. For the 1st time, President of the United States abroad, not on U.S. soil during the 9/11 annual commemoration.
If Biden really agreed to come at once to three cities, Jakarta (ASEAN Summit), New Delhi (G20 Summit), Hanoi (bilateral - state visit), it would actually be Biden's perfect answer to his haters and critics in America about his age and fitness, vitality. The White House is lashing out at the media’s fixation on President Biden’s age and his stamina for executing the job, seeking to go on offense on an issue that polls suggest is one of Biden’s biggest vulnerabilities in his reelection campaign.
Biden may think that delegating to VP Kamala Devi Harris is also an advantage, in order to give VP Harris a bigger role ahead of next year's presidential election (compare in Election 2020). But the public still reads too vulgarly: Biden does feel old and exhausted, unable to go to three countries at once, and only increasingly insults about his age and eligibility to run for Election 2024. Although actually Trump is only 3 years younger. In GOP’s mind, at age 78 when he took office in 2021, Joe Biden was too old to be an effective president. Donald Trump will make an excellent president when he takes office at age 78 in 2025.
Several Indian media snapshot every handshake between PM Narendra Modi and Leaders, but (mostly) only 8 leaders. Foreign Leaders who got the maximum viability at Delhi G20 summit only 8: Modi handshake (with) Biden, Sunak (UK), Scholz (Germany), Kishida (Japan), Albanese (Australia), Hazina Wazed (Bangladesh - every host of G20 get a privilege to choose a special guest, and India/PM Modi choose invite one of them is PM Hasina), MbS (Saudi), MbZ (UEA). But not Jokowi. Very little footage by Indian media about Modi - Jokowi, or whatever Jokowi in New Delhi. We, Indonesia, are the 3rd biggest democratic country, and 4th most populous country on earth. But get less coverage by Indian media.
Personally, I’m waiting a crucial decision: are U.S. government after spending around US$200 million for new face of US Compound or US Embassy Building in Jakarta - Medan Merdeka (only 400 meters from Presidential Palace), agree to build again new embassy when officially - and physically, Indonesia move from Jakarta to new capital city IKN NUSANTARA.
OK, if not Biden, maybe VP Harris (in ASEAN Summit) can say anything. But zero. No detail, or clue, about some indication that US government agree to build again new building/compound, although already invest (build a bigger compound - building) between Obama presidency - Trump presidency.
Indonesia just only gets (access to buying) F-16, not (access to buying) F-35, although, in the U.S. official mind, China is very scary in the entire Pacific.
*Biden - PM Li Qiang is 1st ever highest US-China after in Gran Melia Bali, Biden - President Xi Jinping, Nov 2022
Frustrated and powerless’, in fight with China for global influence, diplomacy is America’s biggest weakness. Bidenomics’ is going global. The world is skeptical. At the ASEAN Summit, and then G20 Summit, the Biden administration unveiled its plans to counter growing Chinese influence with a new approach to economic development that prioritizes climate action and inclusive growth. But countries burned by decades of Western-imposed austerity aren’t convinced.
Let me explain very slowly about how the U.S. is losing a chance in Indonesia, not only because Biden snubbed to attend the Jakarta - ASEAN Summit. I started what we (Indonesia) did very slowly to make sure a solid building, or permanent building, to cement the relationship between Indonesia - Germany.
West Germany was the capital city of Bonn. Of course in (the late) former President Soekarno, Indonesia set up an embassy building in Bonn. Then, moved to Berlin, thanks to “The Fall of Berlin Wall.” Ok, we have an embassy building in Berlin. But until 2016, the building (Indonesia Embassy) in Berlin was “too small”, which some citizens call “lookalike ruko / grocery shop.” Until President (current President) Joko Widodo agrees to increase the budget for Foreign Ministry.
Although there is drama about the banning of Indonesian palm oil by the European Union, trade between Indonesia - Germany is arguably big. Not only because (the late) BJ Habibie. Indonesia often buys airplanes from AIRBUS (owned by France - Germany as majority shareholder). Although Japan is very dominant in the road (in Indonesia), it is still very easy to see German cars in Jakarta and all Indonesian cities.
Contrary to Germany's presence in Indonesia. If anyone gets a better detail, I’m really open to get corrections, or in X - TWITTER, get slapped by “COMMUNITY NOTES” lol. Germany (or at least since name WEST GERMANY) alongside the U.S. government and China government, is the only 3 countries whose embassy building is still the same location from 60 years ago. Since 5-6 decades ago, Germany embassy building (in the past: West Germany building) is still the same, never ever getting a “makeover”: across Grand Indonesia - BCA Tower, and also Mandarin Oriental Hotel. 5 Decades ago, (West) German embassy buildings were even very conspicuous, because there were no other tall buildings. Now, with (1) ICBC Tower, (2) Mandarin Oriental Hotel, (3) BCA Tower, the German embassy building now seems to be submerged because it is surrounded by very tall buildings, skyscrapers.
Blessing in disguise, not too fast to “makeover” embassy building is advantage for Olaf Scholz - German government, because if Indonesia officially - physically move from Jakarta to IKN NUSANTARA, is easy - and - normal for German government to spend a money to build a new building.
Same as the China embassy in Jakarta: very old, very small, if compare China’s presence in Indonesia. For (ONLY) East Indonesia (such as Celebes / Sulawesi Island, Maluku / Moluccan Island, Papua Island), China has already invested around US$40 billion since 2012. Not counting the West side of Indonesia.
Decoupling China - Prada’s Newsletter (substack.com)
China government or Xi Jinping administration very easy to build gigantic embassy in (new capital city of Indonesia) IKN NUSANTARA, because, currently the embassy very bulk, old. Especially after the UK government or Rishi Sunak administration, last December 2022, Chinese bid for a “super embassy” on the site on the old Royal Mint near Tower Bridge was blocked amid a growing rift between Westminster and Beijing. The Tower Hamlets council voted unanimously to reject planning permission for the new multi million pound development in the heart of central London. So, China government very easy to move the budget, from “Super Embassy” in London (denied by Sunak) to be build a super embassy in IKN NUSANTARA. Maybe not as gigantic as the US Embassy in Baghdad, “the citadel”, the “Vatican style” of embassy, the biggest embassy on earth, but maybe less 10-20 acres (*build around 80-90 acres). The US Embassy in Baghdad has 104 acres of size.
Arguably, Indonesia wants gigantic investment in IKN NUSANTARA, maybe around US$500 billion until 2070 - 2075, more than 50 years from now. Presence of some “PROMISING COUNTRY” in the new capital city, especially with the (new) embassy building, is very big to trigger global business to have trust on the new capital city and also (trust to) Indonesia Government. Sadly, the US (in the G20 Summit - New Delhi India) is too busy for the (gigantic) corridor India - Middle East - Europe (arguably will be around US$250 billion joint investment). So Indonesia is also losing a chance to lure “WEST” companies: if the U.S. government has no clear sign to build (again) a new embassy building in the new capital city, why (WEST Companies) must set up a new office and new business in the same location. Indonesia wants to trigger not only China to build something in IKN NUSANTARA, and the U.S. not yet to build something in IKN NUSANTARA.
The French Government is already (I assume spending around EUR40 million) to makeover the French Embassy in Jakarta, so it is very hard for Macron (or next President, if no longer Macron) to build a new embassy. Also South Korea (gigantic building in South Jakarta, beside highway). Also Australia (move building after terror bomb). Also the UK government (from Bundaran HI / Hotel Indonesia square, to the same location beside the new Australian embassy building). The Australian Embassy in Jakarta is the biggest ever Australian Embassy, even (Australian Embassy in) London and DC smaller than in Jakarta, so (also) very hard to imagine the Australian government to built (again) new embassy.
Another potential (like Germany and China) to build a “super embassy” in a new capital city is the United Arab Emirates. Current UAE embassy in Jakarta is small, poorly maintained, unkempt, dull and dusty. Not apple to apple if compare very good relations between Indonesia - UAE, especially between Jokowi and the Ruler of UAE MbZ (Mohammed bin Zayed). The Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Skyway (abbreviated MBZ Skyway), formerly (and still colloquially) known as the Jakarta–Cikampek Elevated Toll Road, is a 36.4-kilometre-long (22.6 mi) elevated expressway, the longest flyover in Indonesia, and the longest elevated double decker expressways in Southeast Asia.
The toll road was opened by President Joko Widodo on 11 December 2019 and was renamed after Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on 8 April 2021 at the behest of the President's secretary as a "thank-you" for the government of Abu Dhabi naming one of its roads as President Joko Widodo Street. May 31st, 2021, Indonesia received around 500,000 doses of coronavirus vaccine, donated by Ruler MbZ. For context, in 2021, at least until June 2021, total coronavirus vaccine stockpile only around 50 million, (and) even between the US government and European Union was a diplomatic spat because of scrambling for a vaccine. One of Jokowi’s grandsons is Panembahan Al Nahyan Nasution, also inspired by Ruler of UAE, a Jokowi’s “thank you and respect” for MbZ. Panembahan is a Sanskrit word, the same meaning as “Lord, Prince.” Very big chance for the UAE to build a “super embassy” in IKN NUSANTARA.
For imagining how hard the US government and other countries who have already invested for new or widening embassies, to invest again in a new embassy in a new capital city, also can compare not only Indonesia's problems in Bonn and Berlin, but also in Astana.
Former (the late) President Soeharto visited Almaty (former Kazakhstan capital city) in April 1995, 2 years and 8 months before Kazakhstan officially moved from Almaty to Astana (December 10th, 1997). The Kazakhstan President visited Jakarta in July 1995. And both countries just built an embassy in 2011 - 2012, around 14-15 years after Kazakhstan officially used Astana to be a new capital city. Imagine if Indonesia officially and physically moved (the capital city) from Jakarta to IKN NUSANTARA in 2026, but a lot of countries, especially WEST countries just build a new embassy in 2040 or 2041.
Rowing Between Two Reef, a quote by former VP Bapak Muhammad Hatta. Same meaning with a roman quote “kill two birds with one stone.” Both Indonesia and India tried the same act, reflecting “rowing”, “kill two birds” with the G20 Summit (last year, and this year) and BRICS Summit weeks ago.
Day 2 of G20 Summit in Bali, around 1pm Bali time (1am DC time), Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) event at the G20 Summit, President Joko Widodo of Indonesia and leaders of the International Partners Group (IPG) of like minded countries, co-led by the United States and Japan, and including Canada, Denmark, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, and the United Kingdom, issued a Joint Statement, launching a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) developed with Indonesia during its G20 Presidency. The landmark partnership pursues an ambitious and just power sector transition in Indonesia, supporting a trajectory consistent with keeping the 1.5 °C global warming limit within reach. This long-term partnership intends to mobilize an initial $20 billion in public and private financing over a three-to-five-year period.
But 3pm, Day 2 of G20 Summit, for exclusive moment, President Jokowi with President Xi Jinping, still in same location (APURVA Kempinksi, because Chinese delegation choose Gran Melia for camp site), watched via videoconference, railway driver from Indonesia and China start to driving a high speed train Jakarta - Bandung.
Now India, for “rowing”, “kill two birds.”
Just hour after the summit started, after condolence for the Morocco earthquake and inclusion of AFRICAN UNION as a permanent member of G20 (but name of G20 still “20”), PM Modi succeeded to secure an agreement of corridor to Europe via West Asia connectivity project. Calling it a "very important project", says, "committed to Infra development all round common project".Indian PM Modi, President Biden, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince MBS, Ruler Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MbZ) at the launch of a mega connectivity project linking India to Europe via West Asia. Along the railway route, Participants intend to enable the laying of cable for electricity and digital connectivity, as well as pipe for clean hydrogen export", White House on India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC). Intend to link continents to commercial hubs and facilitate the development and export of clean energy; lay undersea cables and link energy grids.
A big win for India and the West Alliance in G20, an indirect loss for China (BRICS, One Belt One Road). This India - Middle East - Europe corridor get a call same “OBOR”, One Belt One Rail. Some people are reminded again of the legendary Hejaz Railway in the Middle East.
Around 8 hours after “Gigantic Corridor” G20 joint statement refers to "war in Ukraine" and not "war against Ukraine", in a significant shift in language from the Bali declaration (G20 Summit 2022 in Indonesia) last year. Western countries had previously refused to accept that formulation, given it implies both sides are equally to blame for the war.
"Today’s era must not be of war."
"...all states must refrain from the threat or use of force to seek territorial acquisition against the territorial integrity and sovereignty or political independence of any state. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is inadmissible."
Statement includes no condemnation of Russia - even with last year's caveats that not all countries agreed - and refers to "war in Ukraine," without last year's reference to "aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine."
A big win for India - Russia relations, and also an indirect win for China because the US and the West failed to maximize the momentum in G20.
Rowing the reefs. Kill two birds.
After the ceremonial baton or gavel of G20 Presidency passed by PM Modi to Brazilian President Lula, India and Brazil issued a joint statement. Brazil backs Indian candidature for non-permanent seat of the UNSC for the 2028-2029 term. This (similar) chance was failed to maximize by Indonesia last year, to imagine that Indonesia - India joint statement, India backs for candidature for non-permanent seat of the UN Security Council for (example) the 2027-2028 term. Indonesia was appointed to be a non-permanent UNSC in 1973-1974, 1995-1996, 2007-2008, and 2019-2020. Last time India was appointed to be a non-permanent UNSC in 2021-2022. Very logical if India maximizes a chance for non-permanent UNSC for the 2028-2029 term, but Indonesia loses the same chance last year (for 2027-2028).
Don’t forget that PM Modi maximizes a chance, giving a spotlight for “BHARAT”, in every session of G20 Summit, no longer India. No, this is not the intention that Jokowi would campaign for a new name for Indonesia in the G20 Summit last year.
Back to weeks ago on BRICS.
Same July, 2022 and 2023 Jokowi visit - meet Xi Jinping. 2022 in Beijing, 2023 in Chengdu. July 2022, in the wake of surging again coronavirus cases in China, Jokowi will be the first ever leader to visit China after the Winter Olympic 2022. (China) Cornered globally because of the coronavirus but Jokowi insisted on visiting Beijing (July 2022), a good intention from Jokowi. This is why Beijing - Xi Jinping feels Jokowi has a really friendly attitude.
But Jokowi decided “not to hurry” to join BRICS, although Jokowi attended the BRICS Summit. Just the same week, the news emerged that U.S. - Indonesia deals about / on F-16 purchases.
As an International Relation graduate, if Jokowi really tried “kill two birds”, tried “rowing two reefs”, Jokowi (via Defense Minister) would ask (get access to buying) F-35. If since Nancy Pelosi landed to Taipei, the U.S. government (Biden administration, and also both Congress and Senate, both Democrat and Republican) think China is big(est) threat, Jokowi can ask more “special status” from Biden: (1) F-35 and (2) a commitment to build a new embassy in capital city, so trigger - lure a lot of WEST businesses.
Indonesia ended up only getting (access to buy) F-16. Just the same level as Turkiye. Dealing with the same critical “two reefs”, “two birds”, Turkiye agreed to greenlighted Sweden as a new member of NATO if Turkiye got (1) solid commitment for Turkiye path on EU membership, and (2) get access to buy F-16.
Last January, Robert Menendez successfully gathered signatures (partisan, Democrat and Republican / GOP) to make sure that Biden never gave access for Turkiye - Erdogan regime to buy F-16. Now, since last NATO Summit in Vilnius, U.S. also EU must make sure a better path for Turkiye to joining EU and also a homework for Biden to negotiate Senate and Congress to makesure Turkiye can buy F-16. For complicated “access to buy” of F-16, compared with Ukraine, U.S. just greenlighted access to using F-16 by Ukraine army 3 weeks ago, coincidence very bad progress of counteroffensive. Today is Day - 563 war, and technically on the battlefield, F-16 not yet used by Ukrainian pilots.
https://prada.substack.com/p/under-guided-sri-mulyani-and-retno
But back to Indonesia. If Indonesia administration (especially Jokowi, also Foreign Minister Retno Lestari Priansari Marsudi, and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo) thought “maximize rowing two reefs, kills two birds”, arguably, Indonesia failed to get a same achievement like India.
But.
But because West already secure “Corridor Agreement”, a big win for West side, maybe China government try to maximize advantage in Pacific again, especially with Indonesia. Especially Biden snubbed to attend physically (just delegated VP Kamala Devi Harris).
When President Biden visits Vietnam after his stop at the Group of 20 summit in New Delhi he is expected to upgrade our two nations’ bilateral relationship to a “strategic partnership.” The shift will mark a significant turning for both countries. But it should not come at the cost of skipping the summit of the Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations around the same time in Indonesia. Biden’s choice to go to Hanoi — and send Vice President Kamala Harris in his place to Jakarta — is exactly backward.
The administration may claim otherwise, but in prioritizing the Vietnam visit, it is doubling down on its efforts to build a nation-by-nation Cold War-style security bloc to counter China and avoiding working with regional groups — such as ASEAN — likely to decide the Indo-Pacific region’s future. In an increasingly multipolar world, Washington needs to become more effective at navigating fluid and flexible coalitions, not rerun an old playbook.
The Biden administration insists its approach “is not about forcing countries to choose” between Washington and Beijing, but as we learned through interviews with former senior government officials and security experts in Southeast Asia, its actions often do not match its rhetoric. And the ASEAN countries — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam — are noticing.
According to our interviews, Washington has publicly and privately pressured ASEAN members to turn down China’s global infrastructure projects, known as the Belt and Road Initiative, reduce their economic and technological dependence on Beijing and cancel their military partnerships with the People’s Liberation Army. What the administration heralds as “putting really big, important strategic points on the board” — for example, gaining additional access to the Philippines’ military bases and holding the largest-ever military exercise with Indonesia — many in the region view as thinly disguised attempts to form a new U.S. security bloc. Upgrading the relationship with Vietnam is just the latest example.
Worse, U.S. efforts to build its network of security partnerships are harming, not improving, ASEAN security concerns. For example, a trilateral initiative (known as AUKUS), in which the U.S. and the United Kingdom plan to equip Australia with nuclear-powered submarines, alarms some ASEAN states because it puts them geographically in the center of a dangerous U.S.-China tug of war.
Washington’s limited approach to ASEAN as a collective has done little to allay those fears. Biden’s hesitance is partly understandable. ASEAN can be vexingly slow and bureaucratic, but that does not make it any less central to the region. And unlike Beijing, Washington is on the outside of many of the organization’s economic and political collaborations — for example, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership that unites ASEAN, China, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan. Whatever points Washington is putting on the board in the region, they are not the ones that count most among nations focused on consensus-based multilateralism.
In the end, Washington’s drive for exclusive partnerships could leave it isolated. No amount of U.S. effort will consolidate ASEAN members as an anti-China bloc because these countries depend on China economically and politically. That long-standing position is unlikely to change, a former Singaporean defense official told us. And were these countries to turn away from China, they would be more likely to lean into the overlapping partnerships they are building with their other neighbors, such as India, Australia and Japan — investments made to give themselves strategic options — than to decisively take the U.S. side.
Take Vietnam: Even as relations with the United States have advanced, Vietnam has pursued deeper defense ties with India, formalizing cooperation on military logistics and weapons development and moving toward arms purchases from New Delhi. Vietnam also continues to preserve high-level defense and government ties with China — a necessity given their shared border and contentious history. When Biden upgrades relations with Vietnam, it will not represent Hanoi’s picking Washington over Beijing, although many will frame the move this way.
The region has moved beyond security blocs and binary choices. The United States needs to do the same. The best way to do this would be through robust economic engagement, for example by joining — rejoining really — the now-rebranded Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade deal President Obama negotiated and President Trump scuttled. Unfortunately, U.S. economic nationalism probably precludes this option.
Alternatively, the United States could formalize its participation in ASEAN’s subregional political and economic groups with investments of capital, materiel and technical expertise. Washington could also leverage its comparative advantages in green technology, industrial know-how or education to create new ASEAN subgroups, as it did with the five-nation U.S.-Mekong Partnership established in 2020 to promote stability and sustainable development with initiatives focused on energy, water and health security.
Above all, Washington needs to stop expecting countries to choose sides in its balancing act with China, or risk being shut out of Southeast Asia. Biden may win because “Corridor from India - Middle East - Europe”, even handshake with his arch enemy, MbS (Mohammed bin Salman). But this corridor just triggered China to be (more) aggressive in the Pacific, especially in Indonesia.
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-prada- Adi Mulia Pradana is a Helper. Former adviser (President Indonesia) Jokowi for mapping 2-times election. I used to get paid to catch all these blunders—now I do it for free. Trying to work out what's going on, what happens next. Arch enemies of the tobacco industry, (still) survive after getting doxed. Now figure out, or, prevent catastrophic situations in the Indonesian administration from outside the government. After his mom was nearly killed by a syndicate, now I do it (catch all these blunders, especially blunders by an asshole syndicates) for free. Writer actually facing 12 years attack-simultaneously (physically terror, cyberattack terror) by his (ex) friend in IR UGM / HI UGM (all of them actually indebted to me, at least get a very cheap book). 2 times, my mom nearly got assassinated by my friend with “komplotan” / weird syndicate. Once assassin, forever is assassin, that I was facing in years. I push myself to be (keep) dovish, pacifist, and you can read my pacifist tone in every note I write. A framing that myself propagated for years.
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