His Excellency Qin Gang, New Chinese Foreign Minister, and (Potential) Next Chinese President in the future.
For my lecture (but never teached under him) Mas Nur Rachmat & Foreign Minister Bu Retno Marsudi. Mas NRY, I try every time 3-4 steps ahead you
Shocked. Not because who was appointed to be (new) China’s Foreign Minister. But how he, with great dignity, responded about appointing him.
Qin Gang, in his twitter account, may have received ten thousand, or more, (mentioned) from everyone, about appointing him to be next Chinese FM replacing Wang Yi. But he, first ever tweet after get appointment, choose to reply FM Maldives (Dhivehi Raajjeyge Jumhooriyya (Divehi) الدولة المحلديبية. Al Dawla Al Muhaidib (Arabic) Republic of Maldives (English)).
Maldives, country with only 390k population, only 298 km square. Population only bigger than Buffalo NY (280k), the state which suffered the most suffered “blizzard of the century (Elliott Storm—-35 were dead only in Buffalo)” since Christmas. Population fewer than Kotamadya Yogya. With dignity, Qin Gang replied Abdulla Shahid.
Like the U.S. and Russia, China set a “donut strategy”, or something like this: create a really warm relation around the rival. Knowing a fate that India is dubbed rival, China set a very warm relation with Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, Pakistan, and (of course) Afghanistan.
He’s (Qin Gang) really smart, or even, knows how to “staging something, then highlight it”. The Washington Post has a bigger bureau, maybe the biggest (in the middle) foreign media in Moscow.
Moscow (alongside Beijing) is the most difficult post for (U.S.) Embassy staff and CIA Post Station. WaPo is also owned by Jeffrey Preston “Jeff” Bezos, a trillionaire with “not so warm relation” with Russia and China (very different if compared to Elon Musk). WaPo is the pioneer foreign media to remove team from Moscow immediately after Russia - Ukraine war (*and after kidnapping-ransom diplomacy Brittney Griner — 3 weeks ago has been released after U.S. v Russia exchanged each other, with the Kremlin receiving back Viktor Bout).
A lot of fingers are angry at China, about how China will respond after February 24th (Russia - Ukraine war started). Qin Gang was very smart: he chose The Washington Post (whatever the way China PR team pursued) to write opinion on China's standing position about the Russia - Ukraine war. He decided Washington Post not because he’s (former, because Qin already FM China) China Ambassador to the U.S. and his office of course in D.C. But he know “segmented reader” who must persuade the most.
WaPo, again, since Watergate, to be “1-2 step ahead” vs NYTimes. The fiercely competitive editors of The Washington Post battled against government efforts to prevent follow-up stories to The New York Times’ publication of the Pentagon Papers, then WaPo was successful with the “Watergate” investigation. So, when House Speaker (until Dec 31st still House Speaker, not yet replace by GOP Kevin McCarthy) Nancy Patricia D’Alessandro Pelosi (*she was born in Baltimore, only 20 km from DC) visited Asia including Taiwan, again, WaPo set a score to be lead reporting about Pelosi.
So, Qin Gang, again, was very smart: writing again in the Op-Ed (in Washington Post), condemning Pelosi trip, and how Qin Gang explained “One China Policy”. He knows the “segmented reader” who must persuade the most.
Qin Gang once again, very brilliant. China already eased restrictions about covid in the middle (chaos) of [1] Foxconn factory, [2] protest in Wulumuqi Road Shanghai, [3] Jiang Zemin passed away. So, Qin Gang writes in The National Interest. Qin Gang knows a lot of pundits, analysts, with a spirit of “Hawkish” and “Pro Taiwan '' repeatedly reading The National Interest and also writing for The National Interest.
Tactical “staging of Op-Ed” is an art of leadership. Obama was. Obama write op-ed in Telegraph UK, only 2 days before Brexit referendum, to persuade UK public how a lot loss if UK choose Brexit. Obama knows the “segmented reader” who must persuade the most: Brexiteer, who often read Telegraph (rather than The Sun or Daily Mail—— Guardian reader mostly REMAIN EU/anti Brexit). “If you don’t want it printed, don’t let it happen.”
The rumour about appointing him (replace Wang Yi) was actually shared between China pundits since Christmas Eve, before the 38th Meeting of the Standing Committee of the 13rd National People’s Congress. But the first ever media broke the news (about appointing him) was from SEMAFOR, even not from China media / China state-affiliated media. SEMAFOR (currently, in my opinion) is a new rising star of reporting. SEMAFOR broke the news (first ever) that Zelensky will visit DC. 3-4 Hours before WaPo, NYTimes reporting.
Several Presidents, Prime Ministers, or at least candidates, have a background (oftenly): [1] Mayor or Governor of the capital city; or [2] Foreign Minister. Japan repeatedly has a PM from (background) lead Tokyo. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was Mayor of Tehran. Jokowi was Governor of Jakarta. In the U.S., If the President were to resign or die, the Secretary of State is fourth in line of succession after the Vice President, the Speaker of the House, and the President pro tempore of the Senate. Turkiye President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was Mayor Istanbul, and because he was very afraid about popularity his rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul mayor, 2 weeks ago court ruling to sentence Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu to prison and bar him from politics for two-plus years. Conviction could disqualify him from standing in Turkey's presidential election next year.
A lot of pundits say that Qin Gang has a way to be President of China in the future (replace Xi Jinping(. A lot of pundits also remember how elegant Jiang Zemin, amid chaos “post Tiananmen” , was facing the West, and how he built-and-lead China. Maybe a lot of pundits (especially West) try to compare the harsh response by Xi Jinping especially in the last 3 years (especially after Covid emerged) in relation with The West, with the elegant way by Jiang Zemin, after Jiang Zemin passed away. IMHO, China has already found something elegant like Jiang Zemin: Qin Gang.
I’m not hinted that Indonesia FM currently, Bu Retno Marsudi (my senior alma mater in International Relation UGM) will be the next Indonesia President. She’s not a political party member. Not hinted with another fact, another senior alma mater in International Relation UGM (Pak Amien Rais), was very near to be Indonesia President, at least in 1998, in 1999, and in 2004.
(you may interested read other opinion or live update. Indonesian version, pelase scroll down):
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Yang bikin takjub tentang penunjukan Menlu baru China (*yang kebetulan Dubes China tuk Amerika):
Dia membalas pertama kali adalah untuk Menlu Maladewa. Sepersetriliun ekonomi China. Tapi respek, dibalas.
Imagine bahwa Zelensky ga pernah respon apapun segala pertolongan Jokowi ke Ukraina (*termasuk nego baik2 Putin agar berdamai).
Dari tulisan-tulisannya serta gesture tindakannya, Pak Qin:
1) (mungkin) Politburo China tercerdas post era 2000
2) jauh lebih ngerti cara "main cantik" lawan Barat.
3) bisa ngerti cara bikin konten mereduksi perkelahian China vs Barat
4) ga sehawkish orang-orang di Beijing yang benci Barat, tapi tetep kelihatan dia hawkish (sebetulnya), tapi implisit "main cantik"
*Secara kebetulan, sebagian dubes2 China memang purna tugas 29-30 Desember. Menarik memang kebijakan Luar Negeri China