In Singapore (Shangri-La Dialogue), I’m afraid the West still thinks unipolar on Ukraine and China - Taiwan. My worries really happen.

Singapore 3.25pm / Washington DC 3.25am

In Singapore (International Institute for Strategic Studies or IISS Shangri-La Dialogue), a neutral country - but China high-ranking is very comfortable because the local regime is not blind to support Taiwan, I’m afraid the West still thinks unipolar. My worries really happen.

VIP 1 table. For Two Superpowers

Today (June 3rd, 2023) actually very sensitive for China Defense Minister Li Shangfu, of course for President Xi Jinping, and a lot of high rankings Politburo China: (otw to) 34 years of Tiananmen (June 4th, 1989).

Prime Minister Lee Hsien-loong met Xi Jinping during his visit to China (March 27 - April 1, 2023), and via backdoor channel (assume: several high-ranking Singapore militaries, alongside both side high-ranking military by China & the U.S. for Pacific taskjob area) try to make a crucial meeting between two Defense Minister (Lloyd Austin III - Li Shangfu).

The meeting of just two ministers failed to happen in the IISS Shangri-La dialogue (Singapore) this year, because on March 29th, China decided to say no (meeting just between 2 superpowers), just (around) 48 hours after FM / Secretary of State Blinken said a sensitive comment on China. They (the West, especially U.S.) sanction the Chinese Defense minister, they impose tariffs on Chinese imports, they drastically limit tech exports to China, they are multiply anti-Chinese military arrangements, and they are surprised by the hardening of Chinese positions. What did they expect?

In LITERALLY IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, both Lloyd Austin III and Li Shangfu handshake, but clearly NO MEETING (Marginal Side, Corridor Talk) between two ministers in Singapore. And imagine, after handshake, just hours after handshake, Lloyd Austin III sends warships to Taiwan Straits. June 4th, 2023 (Tiananmen, 34 years after), around 12.37pm Beijing time / 00.37am DC, China side reconfirm incident. China's PLA spokesman on Chinese warship nearly hitting an US destroyer: "Some countries intentionally create incidents, heighten tension, destroy peace & stability, and send wrong signals to 'Taiwan Independentists' We'll take all necessary measures".

9 Days ago, May 26th, 2023, Chinese jet buzzed an American spy plane over the South China Sea and flew directly in front of the plane’s nose, a maneuver the U.S. military called “unnecessarily aggressive.” but by China PoV (point of view), like Ship Incident, “Some countries intentionally create incidents, heighten tension, destroy peace & stability, and send wrong signals in South China Sea.”

VIP 1 Table. Alongside Two Superpowers but few convo / just handshakes, is Australia PM Anthony Norman Albanese, only PM / President or same par who attend Shangri-La Dialogue this year.

This is pretty similar in 2022: as host (in Gran Melia Bali Indonesia, around 16 hours before G20 Summit 2022 in Bali Indonesia —Jokowi’s Indonesia as Chair), November 15th, Xi Jinping greeted and shook hands with Biden. Then December 15th 2022, exactly 1 month, Biden blacklists China's YMTC, crackdowns on the AI chip sector.

CIA Director Burns' secret visit or clandestine visit to China in May 2023 is the latest evidence casting doubt on the narrative that there was a "freeze" in US-China diplomacy following the balloon incident on February 4th, 2023. No detailed “(specific) date of May '', same as Burns visit (secret visit) Kyiv between Christmas 2022 and NYE.

Burns played a discreet and central role in this administration. He is one of the most balanced, realistic and constructive US diplomats. Since it debuted last month (April 20th, 2023), Netflix's "The Diplomat" has become compulsive viewing in foreign-policy circles. It's a source of gratification among diplomats, who feel Hollywood is finally showing them the recognition it has long given C.I.A. agents. The real situation: Burns (CIA director) arguably more flexible, more realistic to see the world already changed to be multipolar, rather than Foreign Minister or Secretary of State Blinken (insist unipolar US led). 

Slot for Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu to giving a keynote speech: June 4th, 2023 —- 34 years of Tiananmen / 34 years of Solidarnosc.

NSA adviser Jake Sullivan and Former Chinese minister Wang Yi meet in Vienna. Wang Yi was really busy, he’s strategic architect since October 2022 (still Foreign Minister before replacing by Qin Gang) about peace talk Saudi - Iran, and then, entire Middle East except Israel create a peace talks each other.

But Wang Yi still had spare time to meet Jake Sullivan. 17 Hours ago, Sullivan said more nuclear arms were not needed to deter Russia, China. Sullivan also said Washington will abide by the limits on strategic nuclear weapons set in the 2010 New START treaty until the pact's 2026 expiration as long as Russia does the same, and it is eager for arms control talks with both Moscow and Beijing.

Both Moscow and Beijing currently have a nuclear supply agreement (uranium, etc) with Saudi.

Another meeting between two superpowers, virtual meet up or physical meet up, already happens after spy-balloon. 2 weeks after the balloon incident, Secretary of State Blinken met with incoming Foreign Affairs Director Wang Yi in Munich (Munich Security Conference). US Deputy Secretary of State Rick Waters then traveled to China in the third week of March. Before meeting up in Vienna (May), March 26, National Security Jake Sullivan held a phone call with Wang Yi, disclosed two days after the fact. The first week of April, two senior commerce dept. officials, Elizabeth Economy and Scott Tatlock, traveled to Beijing and Shanghai to lay the groundwork for the subsequent meeting between Gina Marie Raimondo and Wang Wentao 3 weeks ago. 

In mid-May climate envoy John Forbes Kerry held a video call with his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua. With good intention after being appointed to be new Chinese FM to replace Wang Yi, Foreign Minister Qin Gang's meeting with "US Friendly Organizations and Individuals" in late March. 12th Chinese Ambassador to the U.S Ambassador Xie Feng (appointed May 22nd, 2023, replaced Qin Gang) may be the Chinese side to be the most aggressive person to create a major meeting to “cooling down” tension between two superpowers. He immediately meet up his counterparts, US ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, meet Under Secretary Victoria Jane Nuland, meet President of CFR (Council on Foreign Relation) Richard Nathan Haass, and even meet former Secretary of State Henry Alfred Kissinger in 100th birthday of Kissinger. 

But again, imagine two Defense Ministers shaking hands, and hours later, Lloyd Austin III sent a warship to Taiwan Straits. China's not interested, reflecting anger over the U.S. presence in its backyard and a desire to make it feel a sense of risk. “If China cooperates with the U.S., then the U.S. can play this dangerous game again and again." President Biden predicted a “thaw” last month in U.S.-China relations. But China is seeking to set the conditions of re-engagement, complicating efforts by the Biden administration to halt a downward spiral in the relationship. “By accommodating China’s desire for greater status while demanding more of Beijing as a beneficiary of international cooperation, the United States can both avoid alienating a rising power and endangering the future of international order.”

No formal PRC response, but a member of the Chinese delegation dismissed remarks to me as merely for public show in shangri-La Dialogue. Add to that this report that the US Navy (still facing backlash on Pride Month issue) may be doing a transit thru Taiwan Strait at the same time, and dialogue prospects not looking good. Add injury to insult there's apparently a bunch of US warships transiting the Taiwan strait at the same time as Austin's speech. A transparent, blunt crisis of communication in Singapore, although both sides have already set up meetings to cooling down tension.

 

With crisis communications, they don’t view it the same way the Russians do or the Soviets did before them. They are much more political and less practical. Mutual engagement opened up vistas for millions of Chinese and exposed Americans to a culture that is thousands of years old and a government that, for better or worse, will shape the future of the planet. China and America must set a peace in the world, not kill each other. Austin didn’t address whether the U.S. would reconsider lifting sanctions on Li, which China has said must happen. "Dialogue is not a reward. It is a necessity,” Austin said. At dinner Friday, the two sat at the same table but not close enough to speak. Austin unironically says that "the US is doubling down" on encircling China military because there is "no room for intimidation, bullying or coercion".

China said it wouldn’t meet until the U.S. lifted sanctions it had placed on Li in 2018 after he approved the purchase of Russian jet fighters and missiles. The U.S. has said there is nothing legally preventing a meeting between the two defense chiefs. Imagine and read slowly: The US sanctioned the Chinese Defense Minister and are apparently surprised that consequently he refuses to meet his US counterpart. Even, Defense Minister still agreed to hand shake with Lloyd Austin III in Singapore actually “miracle.” Imagine (again) and read slowly (again), Secretary Austin says "we are not trying to create a NATO in the Indo-Pacific" just as NATO is setting up shop in Japan, its first permanent liaison office in Asia. Are we expecting China not to tantrum about NATO (permanent) in Tokyo? How NATO can make peace in Tokyo (and entire East Asia) when NATO itself to be scapegoated about latest Kosovo - Serbia clash.

The whole “we aren’t trying to create a NATO in Asia“ thing would be more credible/believable if the very next speaker didn’t literally applaud NATO for opening an office in Japan. In the same vein, the Biden administration’s “we are committed to the One China Policy and the status quo in the Taiwan Strait” would be more credible if Biden didn’t repeatedly say that U.S. forces would come to Taiwan’s defense (only for his subordinates to correct the record). Last time “NATO wannabe” in East Asia or Southeast Asia was SEATO (actually planned to build in Bangkok, during the Vietnam War). But failed. 

Interesting question by a PLA officer to Austin, calling out the "contradiction" of claiming to "support the centrality of ASEAN" in Asia but at the same time centering their strategy in the region around US-led alliances like AUKUS or the Quad in which ASEAN plays no role. It turns out Secretary Austin failed to address the question because he doesn't understand the term "ASEAN centrality," a core priority of ASEAN. 

It stands for the principle that ASEAN should remain, as it has been, the architect, driver and nucleus of regional cooperation in the Asia-Pacific.

This is not reassuring. ASEAN Chairs this year is Jokowi’s Indonesia, and Jokowi has a really good communication between Biden and Xi Jinping. Jokowi in 2-years consecutive to be special guest of G7 (the 48th G7 in Bavaria Germany - Chancellor Olaf Scholz as Chairs; the 49th G7 Summit in Hiroshima Japan - PM Kishida Fumio as Chairs), had a very big laugh with Biden (candid camera) last year in Bavaria. But, also Joko Widodo, he has a really good relationship, communication with Xi Jinping, Thanks high-speed trains, and a lot of mining projects between China - Indonesia. 

An example of ASEAN Centrality at work:

Contrary to what the China-panic crowd will tell you, RCEP was originated by ASEAN, not China.

Its membership is formed by the concentric rings of the regional structure known as ASEAN+3 (China, Japan, ROK) and +3 again (Australia, NZ, India). India dropped out of negotiations. Austin was speaking in Singapore but he might as well have been in Washington. He's probably never heard the term. Whether in Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, Manila, Bangkok or Singapore, it's high time ASEAN organized events like this and framed the terms of the conversation.

Why is ASEAN Centrality important to its member states? Because it is our way to preserve Southeast Asia's strategic autonomy against being embroiled in precisely power politics and militarization represented by AUKUS and NATO. It is how a region of (around) 650 million people committed.

On the allure of economic partnership with Beijing, Indonesia's Coordinating Maritime Affairs and Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan (he’s also ex General Military): "What I like about partnering with China is the technology transfer.  They are willing to share their technologies."

Without them, we would not have been able to export $34 billion [in 2022] from the nickel downstream industry,” Chief Investment Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan told the China (Sichuan)-Indonesia Economic and Trade Conference in Jakarta on Monday (May 29th, 2023).

“We do not have a national debt with China. It is all business-to-business [B2B],” Luhut said.

Indonesia is trying to shift from nickel ores to products of higher added value such as nickel sulfates, cathodes to even battery recycling. The country has imposed a full ban on exports of unprocessed nickel ores since Jan. 2020. 

(Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo with Lawrence Wong Shyun Tsai, Deputy PM Singapore, soon-PM Singapore, in Shangri-La Dialogue. Maybe this is handshake of [future] 2 leaders in Southeast Asia. In almost every polling of Indonesia Presidential Election 2024, Prabowo lead)

The person, not journo, but tireless to reporting Ukraine - Russia via twitter alongside me (live update twitter Russia - Ukraine). Tim White. I know him since coronavirus peak. Both I and Tim was creating live update twitter - coronavirus and then we moved on Russia - Ukraine issue

Another Jokowi’s minister. Prabowo Subianto Djojohadikusumo, Indonesia Defense Minister, former 3-star military general, currently lead in every pools about Indonesia Presidential Election next year, part of Cambodia peace talk (1997-1998, known with Jakarta Informal Meeting), also commander for East Timor / Timor LoroSae operation during 70s-80s (Seroja special force, then, 1999 East Timor decide to separate from Indonesia, to be a new independence country, facilitating by UN mission) propose peace plan for Russia - Ukraine war in Shangri-La Dialogue:

1. Immediate ceasefire. 

2. Withdrawal by 15 km of troops from both sides, creation of a demilitarized zone in between.

3. Immediate UN peacekeeping deployment. 

4. UN referendum in occupied territories. 

Prabowo added "Let us not put blame on any side, there are always two versions to any conflict, both sides feel strongly of their righteousness." As Jean-Luc Godard once said, should a balanced debate be "Five minutes for the Nazis and five minutes for the Jews"? Because, you know, there are always two versions to any dispute.

Thanks oil and gas (still a lot buyer by the West, or, some tricky, buy by India and then the West buy from India), Russia keep stay at war.

Megawati, former President of Indonesia, repeatedly made (shade) comments about why Ukraine’s Zelensky insisted on staying in conflict with Putin. Jokowi, until today, is the only leader (after the Russia - Ukraine war started) to meet Putin in Moscow and Zelensky in Kyiv, to meet both sides, physically.   

Prabowo witnessed Timor LoroSae to be part of Indonesia. He witnessed Timor LoroSae to be an independent country. Even he move to Jordan because feel kicked out, scapegoated after the May Tragedy 1998 in Indonesia. If he wants, Prabowo may be a special guest at the “Jordan Royal wedding” but no, he stays in Indonesia and now in Singapore. 

Abruptly, after Prabowo’s speech, EU High Representative Josep Borrell, speaking straight after Prabowo, takes issue with the ceasefire proposal for Ukraine that he’s just heard, saying that there must be a ‘just peace’, not ‘a peace of surrender.’ Around 27 hours ago, in Helsinki to celebrate Finland as a new member of NATO, Secretary Blinken reiterated warnings about a superficial ceasefire for Ukraine, saying one that freezes current lines in place with Russia controlling large swathes of Ukrainian territory “is a Potemkin peace. It would legitimize Russia’s land grab.” 

Further strengthening Ukraine’s defenses against Russia was a “prerequisite” for diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. Blinken shade to Kremlin, saying “Kremlin often claimed it had the second strongest military in the world, today, many see Russia's military as the second strongest in Ukraine.”

In 2023, “do everything imaginable to avert nuclear war” is considered the “extremist” position.

After responding to Prabowo, Borrel continued to say “Yes, in Europe we have a war, but the epicenter of international tensions is here in the Indo-Pacific.” Currently, June 3rd, 2023, is Day 466 Russia - Ukraine war and still continued, no sign so far about peace talk. 

Same Borrell, October 2022, says racist comment “The gardeners have to go to the jungle. Europeans have to be much more engaged with the rest of the world. Otherwise, the rest of the world will invade us, by different ways and means.”

Europeans should assume most of the responsibility for defending Europe. The alternative is a deteriorating status quo that suppresses European capabilities and asks ever more of Americans. The “Biden defense budget” is $886 billion, the largest ever requested. It’s moronic to think the U.S. needs $886 billion to defend itself. A bigger defense budget doesn’t necessarily buy more security and could actually be an enabler of stupid policy.

The U.S. defense budget emerges from the debt ceiling and spending debate unscathed. Biden’s $886 billion request is locked in while non-defense discretionary spending is capped for the next two years. 85% of the think tanks cited in articles about US military support in Ukraine have received funding from Pentagon contractors. Yet defense hawks still have the gall to complain. While it’s true that defense spending would be limited to a 1% increase in 2025, it’s also true that Biden said he could go back to Capitol Hill for additional funds if necessary/desired.

Imagine with nearly US$1 trillion goes to Pentagon and mlst of them goes to “Military Assistance” for Ukraine, according to Exclusive Interview by Chief Editor WSJ Emma Tucker and high-ranking WSJ James Marson (finishing WSJ length-deep nearly same minute when I finish this note), in Odesa, Zelensky complains about the west still drip-feeding weapons to Ukraine & fears what a Trump presidency could mean for the war effort. This interview very crucial because Emma actually facing other painful situation: Evan Gershkovich jailed in Moscow.

Very similar to how Congress dealt with the BCA caps: increase them through legislation. The thing that people need to remember is that the defense budget is as much a jobs program as it is about defense. Lawmakers want jobs in their districts; combatant commanders want more dollar by American taxpayers for their commands; and Congress wants more funds for legacy systems DoD doesn’t even want. 85% of the think tanks cited in articles about US military support in Ukraine have received funding from Pentagon contractors. Defense budget is actually capped, although it's capped higher than non-defense discretionary (and could still be moved upwards).

There's a possibility that Ukraine supplementals could be used to bypass those caps (OCO anyone?) US$3 billion in Pentagon’s couch cushions & people - U.S. taxpayers are going unhoused and without health care. Same hour that Biden faces increasing pressure from Congress on how it can keep sending more weapons to Ukraine. This is why the audit matters, and why Jon Stewart says too vulgarly that the Pentagon is corrupt, straight in the face of Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Holland Hicks. (Again) 85% of the think tanks cited in articles about US military support in Ukraine have received funding from Pentagon contractors, this is why the audit matters. A preliminary CBO estimate found that the Fiscal Response Act - the debt-limit package set to be voted on by Congress this week - could cut spending by $2.1T if proposed budget caps are left in place for a full 6 years.

(Since Russia - Ukraine war started, QUINCY INSTITUTE actively push to scenario peace talk/cease fire to end of war. QUICNY also vocal - critical about US defense spending)

In the wake Debt Ceiling, bipartisan group senators sent letter to Pentagon - Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III urging him to open investigation into systematic price gouging by defense contractors especially in the last 2 years in the wake of Russia - Ukraine war. That's why the audit matters. On the Ukraine side, Ukraine ’s defence minister Olekssi Reznikov faces the sack after his department was hit by scandals including claims of dodgy deals to buy food for troops at inflated prices.

West, both U.S. and Euro, push a point of view that is currently still unipolar, and everyone must agree with the West. At The same time, the West pushes Global South (at least China, Indonesia, India, Brazil, South Africa plus Turkiye) to lure Putin to stop invading Ukraine. 

One of Global South, Ethiopia

In Blinken’s formulation, “true peace” means “Russia surrenders, pays for Ukraine’s reconstruction and willingly submits their troops and officials to a war crimes tribunal.” Zelensky offered similar points in his “peace framework.” True peace = Ukraine wins militarily. In the Global South perspective, no one wins between Russia and Ukraine if the U.S. and the entire West ask for help from the Global South to negotiate with Putin. example of the schism between West and Rest: “The west must take “into account” Russian president Vladimir Putin’s security concerns and stop the slide towards a Versailles-style victors’ peace in Ukraine, said Brazil’s top foreign policy adviser.”

Wouldn’t go that far. Depends on the country’s frame of reference. African countries care about the war because it impacts the wheat supply. China cares about it because it doesn’t want to see Putin lose outright & is concerned about nuclear weapons being used.

West people freak out whenever a Chinese official opens his or her mouth about Ukraine, but it’s undeniable that this view resonates throughout the so-called Global South (whether you like it or not). Most countries outside of the G7 just want hostilities to cease. Any ceasefire with Russia is described not as a way to minimize the fighting and get peace talks going but as a clever way to solidify Russian territorial gains and give Moscow a chance to rearm.

Ukraine was the victim of an insurgency fed by a foreign country. Legally, Ukraine could act to recover the territories provided it does its utmost to limit the civilian casualties. Ukraine is today a victim of an aggression where Russia obviously is shelling indiscriminately. The Ukrainian army was trying to recover Ukrainian territories where an insurgency had been armed and led by Russia. The fighting was on the frontlines. There was no systematic shelling of civilian areas the way Russians are doing.

======end——— (prada / Adi Mulia Pradana)

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