“You are either with us, or with the terrorist”: Awkward Spat between U.S. and Elon Musk + MBS's Saudi in the wake of Russia - Ukraine war
21 years ago was Bushism, now is Bidenism, and still a failure optic of the West views the entire world.
Saudi - U.S. on the (new) lowest point diplomatic relation like tragedy 911 (Saudi citizenship is the terrorist in the hijacked plane—crash to WTC). Not only Saudi backs the LIV-Golf tournament (affiliating with Trump). But (also) because of the decision (OPEC, led by Saudi) to cut oil production, likely “Oil Embargo in decade 1970 (by the late King Faisal)”. This decision will be, 1-2 months from now (or in worst: at the moment of G20 Summit, November 2022), rocketing oil prices to US$160-165 / barrel.
Biden tells in an exclusive interview with CNN there’ll be “consequences” for Saudi for the decision by OPEC+ to slash oil production, a move the admin says will benefit Russia by propping up oil prices. “When the House and Senate gets back there’s going to be some consequences for what they’ve done”, Biden says. Trying to exploit the moment when the Senate and Congress feel angry about Saudi, Biden said he will consider legislation that would punish Saudi Arabia for joining with its OPEC allies, including Russia, in cutting global oil supply.
In very sensitive - polar issue, 911 Tragedy 21 years ago, “You are either with us, or with the terrorist” shout by Bush Jr, popular know with “Bushism”. Nowadays, feel like “Bidenism”, “You are either with us, or with the terrorist” reflected with how each country choose a decision in the wake of Russia - Ukraine. Surprisingly, even between March 2022 until tonight (at least 9 pm ET, Oct 12th 2022), the “score” is arguably still similar. Let’s say, with brutality and ruthless attack by Russia, arguably Russia losing a face at least in the United Nation forum.
For at least 4 months, Elon Musk never ask full upfront payment for Starlink. Gargantuan contractor (linked Pentagon, Department of Defense) like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Boeing, General Electric, Raytheon, Booz Allen Hamilton ask upfront payment before provide services to US military. Lockheed and Raytheon charging for Javelins and HIMARS' (M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System). If they truly supported democracy, they would be doing it for free like Starlink's SpaceX created by Elon Musk.
Once Elon ask upcoming payment if war unmitigated, if war too long, everyone mad. 1,5 hour ago, Elon tweeted (Oct. 15th) “.… even though Starlink is still losing money & other companies are getting billions of taxpayer $, we’ll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free.”
Tries to calculate, CNN say “saw a document” SpaceX estimated $124 million for the rest of 2022, assumed Sept 1st - Dec 31st (4 months). If true total Starlink set for Ukraine currently 20,000 & assumed this number never changed even until 2024, SpaceX subsidies $31 million per month.
Elon Musk also shared TWO polling-twitter, maybe most engaged ever polling-twitter ever: about Russia-Ukraine and Crimea. At least until 11.50 am ET, two polling reach 2,748,378 participants and 2,368,466 participants.
At least US Government, Biden itself, green lamp $52 Billion & $725 million just for Ukraine between January-October 2022. Senior Pentagon admit that Starlink's Musk is "outstanding technology" in the battlefield, in the wake of the Russia - Ukraine war. Same senior Pentagon say "Elon gonna Elon."
The fact is, Russia is not losing face too much, and this is really curious, and not only about Saudi stance about Russia - Ukraine, but about the entire world. Even Russia capitalize, implicitly, Elon’s argument about how to ended the war: Crimea Issue.
At least 10 times the UN set a vote about the Russia - Ukraine, whatever level of voting, issue between February 24th (war started) until today (Oct 12th, 2022). I choose only two moments: March 2nd 2022 and October 12th 2022.
March 2nd 2022:
In Favor (decide to stance for Ukraine) 141; Against 5, Abstention 35
October 12th 2022:
In Favor (decide to stance for Ukraine) 143; Against 5, Abstention 33
March 2nd, 2022:
October 12th, 2022:
This is surprising, even after Oct 10th 2022 Russia launched a very offensive to entirely Ukraine, with the scale of firing missiles back to the February situation. Western-oriented approach is no longer adequate to address the many forces governing international power relations. A future world order, especially after the Ukraine - Russia war, will need to accommodate non-Western powers and tolerate greater diversity. Western policy preferences will prevail less, the quest for harmonization that defined the era of cosmopolitanism will be attenuated, and each country will have to be granted greater leeway in managing its economy, society, and political system. Saudi in the last 72 hours is the perfect sample “greater leeway” after Saudi decide to (lead OPEC+ to) cut oil production.
One surprise, at least, Saudi in 2 moments decided “In Favor”. Vote “In Favor” tonight is more surprising because only 24 hours ago Biden, Senate, and Congress were angry because Saudi cut oil production. More awkward for America: less than 70 hours after #UNGA Zelensky himself say thanks to MBS.
Biden seeks reevaluating relations with Saudi. Abruptly, the U.S. State Department cast the administration's reassessment of relations with Saudi as something Biden had been calling for going back to the campaign. Abruptly (too), Pentagon revaluating relations with Elon Musk and Pentagon is in talks with Elon Musk’s Starlink to keep connectivity for Ukrainian forces, per Financial Times.
Saudi would decide against (decide to stance for Russia) for tonight to rebuttal U.S. decision, or at least “Abstain”, but Saudi intact to pro-Ukraine. Confusing or broadening the definition of an ally by suggesting that the U.S. might defend states it has no defense commitment to defend carries grave risks. The U.S. Senate and Congress urge Biden to freeze selling weapons to Saudi, not only Saudi just killing Yemeni in years with U.S. weapons but also Saudi decision on cutting oil production. Everyone gets to the ‘Saudi Arabia is no fit ally’ party in their own way, but a lot of people who got there on the war in Yemen, MBS (Muhammad bin Salman)-sanctioned murder of journalists, or many other reasons may feel justified in looking a bit askance at those arriving because of an OPEC quota cut.
Like Saudi (spat MBS - Biden about oil), Turkiye is YES / In Favor of Ukraine about UN resolutions in the wake of Russia - Ukraine (March 2nd, and Oct 12th).
Putin doesn't care 140+ votes yes or even 30+ abstain. He continues to “solid rock” with MBS & Erdogan. The West wrong in optic to view the world.
Only minutes after UN resolution voting got result (143 vs 5 vs 33), Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said that the efforts to extend the truce in Yemen still stand, after an initial UN-brokered pact between a Saudi-led coalition and the Houthi rebels expired early this month. The U.S. should not pretend to be willing to do so, without a single reason to believe this agreement would bolster, protect, or defend US interests in the Middle East just because of rift with Saudi.
Current situation really contrasts if compared in August after Biden visits Riyadh. The U.S. decision appears to have fallen well short of hopes, especially after the White House and State Department doubled down yesterday by praising Riyadh for another Yemen truce extension and announcing a $3.05 B weapons sale. Diplomacy is not what’s wrong in Washington’s handling of Riyadh; it’s the long-term U.S. military presence in Saudi and ongoing U.S. support for the Saudi military, including its brutality in Yemen.
I will try to explain another surprise after the UN resolution voting today.
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(*Bush Jr immediately get a short brief that WTC under attack, Sept 11th, and Bushism started)
With (Bushism spirit, now Bidenism spirit) “You are either with us, or with the terrorist” repeated inthe wake of Russia - Ukraine, typically the US makes this mistake a lot - viewing the world in binary terms more than others. Sometimes this is a good thing, but in other cases it causes the US to misread what others are doing, and to miss out on opportunities because of this rigidity.
With Saudi still yes/”In Favor” of Ukraine in UN resolution amid high tension between U.S. - Saudi, I worry we’re repeating a Cold War era mistake by putting each state into a pro-West or pro-Moscow camp like it’s binary. Just as the western misread Mosaddegh & Nasser as Soviet pawns, many see Arab states that cooperate with Moscow as part of a pro-Russia/anti-US camp. It’s more complex. Western is oversimplifying how states act. For example, the de facto Saudi ruler-now-Prime Minister of Saudi, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) is not pro-Russian, he is simply anti-Biden and wants Trump back. Saudi state’s human rights record is gruesome, and the visit is unquestionably a reversal for Biden. But most criticism of the trip is wrongly aimed.
Back again to compare the UN vote between March 2nd and October 12th. 10 Countries that changed their votes from March - October: Angola, Bangladesh, Eritrea, Honduras, Iraq, Lesotho, Madagascar, Nicaragua, Senegal, and Thailand.
From against (stance for Russia) in March, now abstention in October: Eritrea
From abstention in March, now In Favor (stance for Ukraine) in October:
Angola, Bangladesh, Iraq, Madagascar, Senegal
From In Favor in March, now abstention in October:
Honduras, Lesotho, Thailand
From Abstention in March, now Against (stance for Russia) in October:
Nicaragua
Even with more and more civilians dying in Ukraine, abstention is still more than 30 countries. If you count every single voting in the UN, whatever level of voting, related to Ukraine and Russia, you will find every voting gets at least 30 or more countries abstain. The global order is deteriorating before our eyes. Worth remembering when discussing great power competition in the Middle East are how regional actors seek to exploit this narrative despite knowing that neither Russia nor China could (or desire to) fill a U.S. void in the Middle East. To make sure again how Biden tantrums to Saudi is awkward: France and Germany already secure a strategic cooperation-deal with Qatar, so Qatar inject more gas and oil to France and Germany, and both “Europe powerhouse” can reduce buying oil and gas from Russia.
Being a partner doesn’t mean undermining a Biden weeks before midterms (3-5 November) and empowering a Russian aggressor while he willfully kills Ukrainian civilians.We continue to sell them weapons and US navy keeps Gulf open; and they screw us by cutting oil production. Some partners. To make sure Biden’s angry (and Senate, Congress angry) to Saudi is awkward after Saudi still say yes/In Favor to support Ukraine in UN Resolution: days after Midterm election, Biden will be in same Summit with Saudi MBS, Putin, Xi Jinping, because Jokowi (Indonesia) to be host of G20 Summit 10-12 November).
The relative decline of U.S. power and the concomitant rise of China have eroded the partially liberal, rules-based system once dominated by the United States and its allies. Repeated financial crises, rising inequality, renewed protectionism, the COVID-19 pandemic, and growing reliance on economic sanctions have brought the post-Cold War era of hyperglobalization to an end. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have revitalized NATO, but it has also deepened the divide between East and West and North and South. Meanwhile, shifting domestic priorities in many countries and increasingly competitive geopolitics have consequences.
India (Abstain; and Abstain again, on UN resolution between March and October) by Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, at least 2 times lambasts the West hypocrisy in the wake of Russia - Ukraine. April 12th 2022, Jaishankar said India’s monthly oil purchase from Russia is less than Europe's does in an afternoon (purchase in 1 day). In June 4th 2022, Jaishankar asked if the West felt less oil supply and made the price rocketing, why the U.S. and entirely European Union not allow Iranian oil or Venezuelan oil to the global market.
Saudi MBS of course love Jaishankar's argument. Especially now, when the U.S. and Saudi are at the lowest point just because of oil. Saudi still “Yes” (In Favor) at least March and tonight UN resolution veto. India confidence to abstain between March and October UN voting. But Biden of course is afraid to confront India nowadays. If the U.S. is too busy facing Russia and China (and Saudi), the U.S. will be too confused if spat with India too, the QUAD member (U.S, Japan, Australia, India).
Anomaly decision about Ukraine - Russia with Saudi to be perfect sample, only 12 days before 77th anniversary of the United Nation (October 24th). Yes, the world regime order actually, and abruptly, revolted in the wake of the Russia - Ukraine war.
And to make sure (again) the west (again) is wrong to use an optic to see the world: the population of ABSTAIN (30+) is greater than YES (140+ countries). With a big population like China, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Thailand stay Abstain, absolutely greater than G7 and Co. with 130-135 countries who decide “In Favor”. No. The West is still facing difficulty in isolating Russia. And even Saudi is a very unique example about the complicated Russia - Ukraine, between oil, between windfall profit, between war.